Softs Report 05/16/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday in response to improved weather conditions throughout the Cotton belt. The weekly export sales report showed below average demand. There are still reports of better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good. Demand is a concern after w week of poor export sales.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.59 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 64.90, 63.80, and 62.10 July, with resistance of 66.70, 67.20 and 68.00 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday and trends are mixed in the market. USDA adjusted US and Florida production slightly higher than in previous estimates in its reports yesterday. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather abut also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 236.00, 217.00, and 200.00 July, with resistance at 274.00, 277.00, and 288.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was a lot higher and London was lower yesterday as up and down price action continues. Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight supplies and the production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production. There are still ideas of good demand against ideas of less supplies available to the market. The lack of offers from Brazil continues even with the Robusta harvest started. Vietnam is done with its harvest. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 333.06 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 49 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 405 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 363.00, 348.00, and 337.00 July, and resistance is at 385.00, 393.00 and 397.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4880, 4760, and 4640 July, with resistance at 5370, 5520, and 5550 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower again yesterday on ideas that the market will move to a surplus situation in the coming year. Ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. UNICA reported that sugar production had fallen almost 54% year on year to 856,160 tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1740, 720, and 1690 July and resistance is at 1850, 1890, and 1940 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 488.00, 484.00, and 478.00 August, with resistance at 513.00, 521.00, and 531.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher on concdens about West Africa production. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and perhaps less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season. Trends are mixed in London and in New York but are trying to turn up even as demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa. Cocoa imports are still subject to a 10% tariff at minimum.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 9650, 9500, and 9150 July, with resistance at 10450, 10870, and 11170 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 6930, 6850, and 6490 July, with resistance at 7370, 7560, and 7960 July

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