Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Waller Speech at 4:15 A.M., MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Imdex at 6:00 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 8:40 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 A.M., and Fed Daly Speech at 4:40 P.M.
Corn prices ended $0.3-$0.5 lower closing around mid-range. Disappointing trade action was based on traders pondering if they got a little bit ahead of themselves with the Chines tariff 90-day pause, wanting confirmation of the opening of UD ag market exports. With seeding ahead of schedule, weather forecasts, and positive early crop conditions in the early going pressured the bulls. In potential drought areas there has been some rainfall helping much needed soil moisture. One farmer was quoted, “This is the wettest drought I have ever experienced.” So that put further pressure against negative weather scares for now. So all the positive news on Monday with corn & ethanol exports, is now old news has traders second guessing their complete bullish outlook. Whispers in certain circles are funds have likely flipped their position to net short for the first time in 6-months. The market for now has buying slowed as any bull market must and needs to be fed bullish fresh new every day. And as, “The Art of the Deal,” continues to unfold, yesterday’s Investment Conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, seemed very positive and successful, President Trump and Cabinet are in flight to the second leg of the tour to Doha, Qater. If the markets realize the solid talks lead and materialize to further trade deals, the markets should have a sharp bullish swing, and also, a reshaping with most favored nation status with our allies in the Middle East. With corn exports pegged at 2.675 Bil Bu, which would be the 2nd highest ever, the market is still in a wait and see mode if that number can grow even further. The USDA reported national corn planting at 62% well above last year, and the fastest in 4-years. The Western Corn Belt continues to move along at a rapid pace, while some states in the central and eastern Corn Belt, IL, MO, KY, and OH are running a tad below historical averages. Emergence has reached 28% vs. the five-year average of 21%. EU corn imports as of May 11th at 17.5 MMT’s up 10% from a year ago. Global stocks/use among top exporters rose to 7.5% in May vs. 7.3% in April. The same ratio is forecast to rise to 8.5% for the 25/26 marketing year, still among the lowest in the past decade. With the new crop 25/26 US stocks/use ratio at 11.6% the average US farm price at $4.20 historically appear reasonable.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Positive Seeding & Weather Data=Bumpy Road for Bulls. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/14/2025
We kickoff the day with Fed Waller Speech at 4:15 A.M., MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Imdex at 6:00 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 8:40 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 A.M., and Fed Daly Speech at 4:40 P.M.
Corn prices ended $0.3-$0.5 lower closing around mid-range. Disappointing trade action was based on traders pondering if they got a little bit ahead of themselves with the Chines tariff 90-day pause, wanting confirmation of the opening of UD ag market exports. With seeding ahead of schedule, weather forecasts, and positive early crop conditions in the early going pressured the bulls. In potential drought areas there has been some rainfall helping much needed soil moisture. One farmer was quoted, “This is the wettest drought I have ever experienced.” So that put further pressure against negative weather scares for now. So all the positive news on Monday with corn & ethanol exports, is now old news has traders second guessing their complete bullish outlook. Whispers in certain circles are funds have likely flipped their position to net short for the first time in 6-months. The market for now has buying slowed as any bull market must and needs to be fed bullish fresh new every day. And as, “The Art of the Deal,” continues to unfold, yesterday’s Investment Conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, seemed very positive and successful, President Trump and Cabinet are in flight to the second leg of the tour to Doha, Qater. If the markets realize the solid talks lead and materialize to further trade deals, the markets should have a sharp bullish swing, and also, a reshaping with most favored nation status with our allies in the Middle East. With corn exports pegged at 2.675 Bil Bu, which would be the 2nd highest ever, the market is still in a wait and see mode if that number can grow even further. The USDA reported national corn planting at 62% well above last year, and the fastest in 4-years. The Western Corn Belt continues to move along at a rapid pace, while some states in the central and eastern Corn Belt, IL, MO, KY, and OH are running a tad below historical averages. Emergence has reached 28% vs. the five-year average of 21%. EU corn imports as of May 11th at 17.5 MMT’s up 10% from a year ago. Global stocks/use among top exporters rose to 7.5% in May vs. 7.3% in April. The same ratio is forecast to rise to 8.5% for the 25/26 marketing year, still among the lowest in the past decade. With the new crop 25/26 US stocks/use ratio at 11.6% the average US farm price at $4.20 historically appear reasonable.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374