This morning, as I was preparing for my day, my wife mentioned how amazing the sunrise looked. To my shock, as I looked out my window, towards the east all I could see was a cloudy, overcast morning. Looking puzzled at her, I noticed out her window was actually a pretty neat sunrise. Where my window looked south and towards rainy clouds, her window pointed north was clear of any rainfall and just spotty cloud cover. A lot of times our outlook, whether it’s the sunrise, the markets, or to be more philosophical, on life, can vary depending on which window we are looking out of. The grains window was looking at wheat posting contract lows this week, though the spring wheat contract ended with a key reversal. Soybeans were weaker, but can we attribute that to money flow around the calendar change? Cattle are full throttle with the cash strength, but with boxed beef at the highest levels since Covid and the charts overbought, can the strength continue? I suppose which window you’re looking out of can pinpoint your answer. Just try to take your cloudy biases out of it!
Corn futures fell sharply lower this week, as July was down 16 ½ cents. December was down just 5 ½ cents this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 24% planted as of April 27, ahead of the 5-year average. EIA showed ethanol production up 7,000 barrels per day to 1.04 million bpd in the week of 4/25. Stocks of ethanol were down another 92,000 barrels to 25.89 million barrels. Monthly NASS Grain Crushing data showed 454.197 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in March. That was up 7.7% from the February total but a 3.79% drop from last year. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.014 MMT for the week that ended on April 24. That brought the total export commitments to 58.749 MMT, which is 91% of USDA’s full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 94% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options cutting back 41,476 contracts from their net long position as of April 29, taking their net long to just back to 71,329 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex was mixed this week, as winter wheat futures were pressured by wetter forecasts. Chicago was down 2 cents in the July contract (0.37%). July Kansas City posted a 9 3/4 cent loss (1.77%). MPLS futures saw a 4 1/2 cent (0.78%) gain this week. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 30% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 4/27, vs. the 5-year average pace of 21%. The winter wheat crop was 27% headed, 5% ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were tallied at 49% good/excellent, back up 4%, with a 334 on the Brugler500 index, a 9-point increase. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at 72,005 MT in the week of 4/24. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop totaled 238,300 MT. That took 2024/25 export sale commitments to 21.555 MMT, which is now 97% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 104% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back a large 31,486 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday to 121,415 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 67,269 contracts, a record and increase of 10,645 contracts during the week of April 29.
Soybeans saw a slight 1 ¼ cent loss in the July contract on the week. November was back down 4 ½ cents. July soybean meal was weaker, slipping back $1.60/ton (-0.54%), with bean oil up 38 points (0.76%) on the week. Crop Progress data showed soybean planting at 18% across the country, ahead of the 12% 5-year average pace. March soybean crush was reported at 206.5 million bushels according to the NASS Fats & Oils report, up 1.49% from last year and 8.97% larger than last month. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 428,227 MT in the week of April 24. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 47.414 MMT. That is 95% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, 1 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 38,202 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 7,135 contracts.
Live cattle closed posted stronger trade, as the newly appointed nearby June was up $2.85. The cash market was continued the ascent this week, with southern sales mainly at $218 and northern trade at $222-224, back up $4 to $6 from the week prior. Feeders were in a rally mode this week with May up $4.425. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $6.50 week/week to $296.38. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week. Choice was up $6.42 (1.9%) to $342.90, while Select was $5.24 higher (+1.6%) to $325.35. Weekly beef production was up 0.8% from last week at 489.5 million lbs this week, but down 7.3% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.4%, as slaughter is 6% lower. Export Sales data showed a total of 12,290 MT of beef sold in the week of 4/24, back up from the week prior. Shipments were 15,776 MT, a 7-week high. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding back 8,380 contracts to their net long positions as of Tuesday to 128,840 contracts. Managed money pulled back their net long in feeder cattle futures and options to 27,901 contracts by April 29, a 160 contract reduction.
Hogs slipped back on an up and down week to close $1.80 below the previous Friday and back below the $100 level. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $2.30 this week at $89.57 as of April 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up 34 cents this week (+0.3%) to $98.38/cwt. Just the loin, ham, and belly were reported lower, with the butt up $3.75. Pork production was up 2.3% from last week and 4.4% above the same week a year ago at 539.5 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.0%, as slaughter is 2.5% lower. Pork export sales bounced back in the week ending on April 24 to 34,529 MT, a 4-week high. Shipments were tallied at 25,816 MT, which was the second lowest this year. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 9,186 contracts to their net long position as of 4/29 to a net position of 67,643 contracts.
Cotton futures pulled back this week, but a rally on Friday assisted July to close with just a 39 point loss. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 15% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, ahead the 14% pace from the 5-year average. Export Sales data showed just 108,363 RB of cotton sold in the week ending on April 24. Shipments were back up from last week’s 8-week low of 365,978 RB. Commitments are now at 10.968 million RB, which is 108% of the USDA forecast, ahead of the 106% 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 6 points higher this week, to 54.94 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds cutting back another 11,206 contracts from their net short position as of April 29 to 26,231 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week beings with the Export Inspections report released on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Tuesday morning will see the release of the monthly Census trade data for March. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday per normal. Wednesday is also when the Fed will announce their next major interest rate decision, with most thinking they will leave it unchanged. May cotton futures also expire on Wednesday. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning.
Tech Talk:
November soybeans put on a late week pop to close with a slight loss this week. Still the resistance remains, with the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance at 10.35 ¾ and the 200-day moving average at $10.35 ½. There is also a 2/3 speedline resistance at $10.29, which was spiked last week and again on Friday. If we can get above the $10.35 area, the 78.6% Fib retracement is at $10.53 ¼ and the February high at $10.75 ¾. From a seasonal stand point, the odds of getting to that last target are very high. For the 12 months leading up to the contract expiration, November beans have never posted a high in February (nor January, nor April). Again, the odds of posting a high some time (seasonally May-July) before November are high, but in baseball terms (batting 0 for 50), February is due. Stochastics are saying to be bearish, with MACD looking to turn bearish, though the bulls are still holding the momentum. We usually don’t mention it too early (for risk of jinxing it), but there is a pattern known as a head and shoulder bottom forming over the last 2 months and a count near $11 give or take a few cents. We have yet to break the neckline (in the $10.45 area), so don’t count your chickens, but it is something worth noting.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Which Window. Ag Marketing Report 05/05/2025
This morning, as I was preparing for my day, my wife mentioned how amazing the sunrise looked. To my shock, as I looked out my window, towards the east all I could see was a cloudy, overcast morning. Looking puzzled at her, I noticed out her window was actually a pretty neat sunrise. Where my window looked south and towards rainy clouds, her window pointed north was clear of any rainfall and just spotty cloud cover. A lot of times our outlook, whether it’s the sunrise, the markets, or to be more philosophical, on life, can vary depending on which window we are looking out of. The grains window was looking at wheat posting contract lows this week, though the spring wheat contract ended with a key reversal. Soybeans were weaker, but can we attribute that to money flow around the calendar change? Cattle are full throttle with the cash strength, but with boxed beef at the highest levels since Covid and the charts overbought, can the strength continue? I suppose which window you’re looking out of can pinpoint your answer. Just try to take your cloudy biases out of it!
Corn futures fell sharply lower this week, as July was down 16 ½ cents. December was down just 5 ½ cents this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 24% planted as of April 27, ahead of the 5-year average. EIA showed ethanol production up 7,000 barrels per day to 1.04 million bpd in the week of 4/25. Stocks of ethanol were down another 92,000 barrels to 25.89 million barrels. Monthly NASS Grain Crushing data showed 454.197 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in March. That was up 7.7% from the February total but a 3.79% drop from last year. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.014 MMT for the week that ended on April 24. That brought the total export commitments to 58.749 MMT, which is 91% of USDA’s full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 94% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options cutting back 41,476 contracts from their net long position as of April 29, taking their net long to just back to 71,329 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex was mixed this week, as winter wheat futures were pressured by wetter forecasts. Chicago was down 2 cents in the July contract (0.37%). July Kansas City posted a 9 3/4 cent loss (1.77%). MPLS futures saw a 4 1/2 cent (0.78%) gain this week. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 30% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 4/27, vs. the 5-year average pace of 21%. The winter wheat crop was 27% headed, 5% ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were tallied at 49% good/excellent, back up 4%, with a 334 on the Brugler500 index, a 9-point increase. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at 72,005 MT in the week of 4/24. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop totaled 238,300 MT. That took 2024/25 export sale commitments to 21.555 MMT, which is now 97% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 104% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back a large 31,486 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday to 121,415 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 67,269 contracts, a record and increase of 10,645 contracts during the week of April 29.
Soybeans saw a slight 1 ¼ cent loss in the July contract on the week. November was back down 4 ½ cents. July soybean meal was weaker, slipping back $1.60/ton (-0.54%), with bean oil up 38 points (0.76%) on the week. Crop Progress data showed soybean planting at 18% across the country, ahead of the 12% 5-year average pace. March soybean crush was reported at 206.5 million bushels according to the NASS Fats & Oils report, up 1.49% from last year and 8.97% larger than last month. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 428,227 MT in the week of April 24. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 47.414 MMT. That is 95% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, 1 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 38,202 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 7,135 contracts.
Live cattle closed posted stronger trade, as the newly appointed nearby June was up $2.85. The cash market was continued the ascent this week, with southern sales mainly at $218 and northern trade at $222-224, back up $4 to $6 from the week prior. Feeders were in a rally mode this week with May up $4.425. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $6.50 week/week to $296.38. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week. Choice was up $6.42 (1.9%) to $342.90, while Select was $5.24 higher (+1.6%) to $325.35. Weekly beef production was up 0.8% from last week at 489.5 million lbs this week, but down 7.3% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.4%, as slaughter is 6% lower. Export Sales data showed a total of 12,290 MT of beef sold in the week of 4/24, back up from the week prior. Shipments were 15,776 MT, a 7-week high. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding back 8,380 contracts to their net long positions as of Tuesday to 128,840 contracts. Managed money pulled back their net long in feeder cattle futures and options to 27,901 contracts by April 29, a 160 contract reduction.
Hogs slipped back on an up and down week to close $1.80 below the previous Friday and back below the $100 level. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $2.30 this week at $89.57 as of April 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up 34 cents this week (+0.3%) to $98.38/cwt. Just the loin, ham, and belly were reported lower, with the butt up $3.75. Pork production was up 2.3% from last week and 4.4% above the same week a year ago at 539.5 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.0%, as slaughter is 2.5% lower. Pork export sales bounced back in the week ending on April 24 to 34,529 MT, a 4-week high. Shipments were tallied at 25,816 MT, which was the second lowest this year. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 9,186 contracts to their net long position as of 4/29 to a net position of 67,643 contracts.
Cotton futures pulled back this week, but a rally on Friday assisted July to close with just a 39 point loss. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 15% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, ahead the 14% pace from the 5-year average. Export Sales data showed just 108,363 RB of cotton sold in the week ending on April 24. Shipments were back up from last week’s 8-week low of 365,978 RB. Commitments are now at 10.968 million RB, which is 108% of the USDA forecast, ahead of the 106% 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 6 points higher this week, to 54.94 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds cutting back another 11,206 contracts from their net short position as of April 29 to 26,231 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week beings with the Export Inspections report released on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Tuesday morning will see the release of the monthly Census trade data for March. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday per normal. Wednesday is also when the Fed will announce their next major interest rate decision, with most thinking they will leave it unchanged. May cotton futures also expire on Wednesday. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning.
Tech Talk:
November soybeans put on a late week pop to close with a slight loss this week. Still the resistance remains, with the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance at 10.35 ¾ and the 200-day moving average at $10.35 ½. There is also a 2/3 speedline resistance at $10.29, which was spiked last week and again on Friday. If we can get above the $10.35 area, the 78.6% Fib retracement is at $10.53 ¼ and the February high at $10.75 ¾. From a seasonal stand point, the odds of getting to that last target are very high. For the 12 months leading up to the contract expiration, November beans have never posted a high in February (nor January, nor April). Again, the odds of posting a high some time (seasonally May-July) before November are high, but in baseball terms (batting 0 for 50), February is due. Stochastics are saying to be bearish, with MACD looking to turn bearish, though the bulls are still holding the momentum. We usually don’t mention it too early (for risk of jinxing it), but there is a pattern known as a head and shoulder bottom forming over the last 2 months and a count near $11 give or take a few cents. We have yet to break the neckline (in the $10.45 area), so don’t count your chickens, but it is something worth noting.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.