Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Non farm Payrolls, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Factory Orders MoM and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US declined for the 3rd consecutive month, slipping 1% from March to 487. 50 is the threshold for whether the manufacturing industry is expanding or contracting, and the index has been below 50 in 28 of the last 30 months. The index is comprised of several sub-indexes, which offered mixed results. The manufacturing output index shrank from 48.3 in March to 44 in April, the price index rose 0.4 points to 69.8, while the new orders index was down 2 points at 45.2. The new export orders index was down 1.8 points at 46.5. The ISM surveyed also revealed that US manufacturers were grappling with rising costa and margin pressures, while ongoing trade uncertainty was disrupting supply chains, causing shipping delays, complex duties, and frequent changes in cost structures. At the same time, they said customer demand was becoming more volatile, with some clients delaying orders or pushing tariff cost back on manufactures. Adding 177,000 jobs in April and the US/Ukraine rare earth deal sign, the markets have an appetite for tariff deals to come through, and of course the tax cut.
Central YS Weather Update
US Drought Set to Erode Further into Mid-May; Planting Accelerates in Plains/ Western Midwest Next 7 Days:
The central Us forecast is viewed as favorable. In the long run, soaking showers in TX, OK, CO, and Western KS next Tues-Fri provide a needed recharging of soil moisture. Active showers are also forecast across the eastern Midwest into May 15th, and so soil moisture will be surplus there in early summer. Dry weather blankets NE, the Dakotas, MO, IA, MN, and WI throughout the next 12-14 days. Planting will be active there, and ARC maintains national corn and soybean planting progress stays at slightly above longer-term averages. Lasting heat will be absent. Notice that a full class improvement was recorded across the western Ag Belt. Abnormal dryness has been eliminated completely from Iowa.
CBOT corn ended slightly weaker. Overall enthusiasm was lacking as Brazilian and European markets were closed for May Day, but ARC notes interiorbasis levels remain unconcerned about nearby supply availability and the market break on Thursday occurred despite another solid week of export sales. Sales in the week ending April 24th totaled 40 Mil Bu, 29 Mil above the pace needed to meet USDA’s forecast. Be careful being bearish of the July-December spreads, and ARC bets sustained interior basis weakness awaits late summer. Focus is shifting to the arrival of Brazilian supply in July and lack of US weather threats. Midwest drought erosion is important longer-term. Another choppy session is anticipated today, unless the all the bullish news creates more buyers. Rallies are still selling opportunities as the market becomes comfortable with US end stocks of 1.4 Bil Bu, amid soaring ethanol yields and as seeded area of 96 Mil implies major drought is needed to pull 25/26 US end stocks below 1.7-1.8 Bil BU. You may want to think about readjusting sale prices above or put in sell levels ultra-intra and higher levels. More bullish news making the rounds this morning, financial news media is reporting that China’s Commerce Ministry is evaluating the possibility of trade talks in Washington. The news is rather opaque with neither US nor China confirming any concrete dialogue.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Positive Unemployment Data-Markets Brace for Tariff Deal’s Success. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/02/2025
We kickoff the day with Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Non farm Payrolls, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Factory Orders MoM and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US declined for the 3rd consecutive month, slipping 1% from March to 487. 50 is the threshold for whether the manufacturing industry is expanding or contracting, and the index has been below 50 in 28 of the last 30 months. The index is comprised of several sub-indexes, which offered mixed results. The manufacturing output index shrank from 48.3 in March to 44 in April, the price index rose 0.4 points to 69.8, while the new orders index was down 2 points at 45.2. The new export orders index was down 1.8 points at 46.5. The ISM surveyed also revealed that US manufacturers were grappling with rising costa and margin pressures, while ongoing trade uncertainty was disrupting supply chains, causing shipping delays, complex duties, and frequent changes in cost structures. At the same time, they said customer demand was becoming more volatile, with some clients delaying orders or pushing tariff cost back on manufactures. Adding 177,000 jobs in April and the US/Ukraine rare earth deal sign, the markets have an appetite for tariff deals to come through, and of course the tax cut.
Central YS Weather Update
US Drought Set to Erode Further into Mid-May; Planting Accelerates in Plains/ Western Midwest Next 7 Days:
The central Us forecast is viewed as favorable. In the long run, soaking showers in TX, OK, CO, and Western KS next Tues-Fri provide a needed recharging of soil moisture. Active showers are also forecast across the eastern Midwest into May 15th, and so soil moisture will be surplus there in early summer. Dry weather blankets NE, the Dakotas, MO, IA, MN, and WI throughout the next 12-14 days. Planting will be active there, and ARC maintains national corn and soybean planting progress stays at slightly above longer-term averages. Lasting heat will be absent. Notice that a full class improvement was recorded across the western Ag Belt. Abnormal dryness has been eliminated completely from Iowa.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Weak Despite Strong Export Sales; Basis Rally Lacks Follow Through:
CBOT corn ended slightly weaker. Overall enthusiasm was lacking as Brazilian and European markets were closed for May Day, but ARC notes interiorbasis levels remain unconcerned about nearby supply availability and the market break on Thursday occurred despite another solid week of export sales. Sales in the week ending April 24th totaled 40 Mil Bu, 29 Mil above the pace needed to meet USDA’s forecast. Be careful being bearish of the July-December spreads, and ARC bets sustained interior basis weakness awaits late summer. Focus is shifting to the arrival of Brazilian supply in July and lack of US weather threats. Midwest drought erosion is important longer-term. Another choppy session is anticipated today, unless the all the bullish news creates more buyers. Rallies are still selling opportunities as the market becomes comfortable with US end stocks of 1.4 Bil Bu, amid soaring ethanol yields and as seeded area of 96 Mil implies major drought is needed to pull 25/26 US end stocks below 1.7-1.8 Bil BU. You may want to think about readjusting sale prices above or put in sell levels ultra-intra and higher levels. More bullish news making the rounds this morning, financial news media is reporting that China’s Commerce Ministry is evaluating the possibility of trade talks in Washington. The news is rather opaque with neither US nor China confirming any concrete dialogue.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374