Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:44 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 8:00 A.M., Fed Harker Speech at 8:30 A.M., Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 1:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.m., and Fed Kugler Speech at 5:00 P.M.
The Conference Board Leasing Economic Index continued to decline in March, sliding 0.7% to 100.5, the lowest level since October 2016. Compared to a year ago, the index was down 3.5%, the most significant year-over-year decline in 6 months and the 33rd consecutive month of annualized declines. The largest harmful components of the index in March were Consumer Expectations for Business Conditions, The S&P 500 Stock Index, and the ISM New Orders Index. The top 3 harmful components far offset the top positive components, which consisted of Building Permits and Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing. The LEI has been a bellwhether for US financial recession since 1960 and has indicated a recession since 2022. However, massive government spending under the Biden Administration propped up GDP calculations, and an “official economic recession was avoided.”
US Weather Update
Heavy Rains Ease Plains Drought; Midwest Planting Disruptions are Short-Term:
The Central US forecast into the opening part of May leans favorable. Most importantly, heavy cumulative rainfall of 1-3” will have an impact on OK, KS, IA, and parts of NE this week allowing for soil restoration. Odds of a Midwest summer drought are in retreat following a rather wet late March/April east of the Mississippi River, and as heat since late winter has been temporary. Additionally, showers are forecast across the Dakotas/MN in the 6-10 day period. The EU model’s 1-5 and 6-10 day precipitation forecast shows an active pattern continues, but minimal rain is forecast in MO, IL, IN, OH, and KY. This week’s return of warmth allows for timely corn/soybean seeding in coming weeks. It remains that near normal Central US precipitation is likely in May meaning that a summer drought is left to late June and July. A 2012 type of drought is off the table.
Global Weather Update
Neutral ENSO Likely During Northern Hemisphere Growing Season:
La Nina has ended and there’s broad agreement that neither La Nina or El Nino will be present during the remainder of spring and summer. Confidence in long range ocean temperatures details is low beyond the next 90 days, but on average neutral ENSO is forecast into October. The absence of La Nina, on balance, leans positive for Plains/Midwest precipitation into late 2025. Ag Resources (ARC) also notes that there’s no clear indication that countries that are more exposed to equatorial ocean temperature anomalies- such as Australia & Argentina – will see climate abnormalities. Neutral ENSO does noy guarantee favorable weather nor foreshadow high odds of regional droughts. The US will see near normal rainfall and near above normal temperatures in the next 30-45 days. The odds of a dire Midwest drought are shrinking-not rising which is important.
Corn Acreage Update
Corn swings in acreage between the March Planting Intentions report and the June Acreage report were routinely 1-2 million acres in the early 2000’s and through the biofuel era. From 2011 to 2018, changes were mostly less than 1 Mil acres abd generally positive changes. 2019-2020 were outliers. In 2019, widespread Midwest flooding delayed planting progress, and the average fell 2.3 Mil acres in June. In 2020, falling new crop prices and negative margins caused farmers to change crops or leave land idle. But for the last 4 years, corn acreage has increased in the June survey, with averaging 1.4 Mil acres. This year Ag Resources (ARC) is anticipating that US corn acreage will remain nearly unchanged. Early season planting progress has been on par with the average, and new crop prices continue to favor planting corn. ARC expects the June Acrage estimate of corn acres at 95.3 Mil acres. That number would be supportive from the March Acreage Report.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Flat; Foreign Markets Closed for Easter; Supply Threat Needed to Sustain Rallies Beyond mid-May:
CBOT corn ended unchanged despite another day of collapsing financial markets. US disappearance stays strong into the early part of summer as import demand is attracted as ethanol’s seasonal maintenance ends by early May. However, ARC reiterates it’s critical to use near-term seasonal strength to manage downside risk, and ARC targets boosting 25/26 hedges to 60-70% in the next 30 days. Brazilian and European markets were closed Monday. The US corn crop is 12% planted, vs. 10% on average in Mid-April. Regional delays occur for another 10-days, bur ARC’s work suggests planting progress reaches 35-45% complete by the first week of May. Seeding date issues will be avoided on a national basis. Beyond mid/late May an Hemisphere weather threat will be needed to keep July CBOT above $4.90 and Dec above $4.60. Be prepared to add forward sales on 10-15 cent rallies.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Tariff Deals Materialize-Does Jerome Powell Disappear? The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/22/2025
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:44 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 8:00 A.M., Fed Harker Speech at 8:30 A.M., Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 1:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.m., and Fed Kugler Speech at 5:00 P.M.
The Conference Board Leasing Economic Index continued to decline in March, sliding 0.7% to 100.5, the lowest level since October 2016. Compared to a year ago, the index was down 3.5%, the most significant year-over-year decline in 6 months and the 33rd consecutive month of annualized declines. The largest harmful components of the index in March were Consumer Expectations for Business Conditions, The S&P 500 Stock Index, and the ISM New Orders Index. The top 3 harmful components far offset the top positive components, which consisted of Building Permits and Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing. The LEI has been a bellwhether for US financial recession since 1960 and has indicated a recession since 2022. However, massive government spending under the Biden Administration propped up GDP calculations, and an “official economic recession was avoided.”
US Weather Update
Heavy Rains Ease Plains Drought; Midwest Planting Disruptions are Short-Term:
The Central US forecast into the opening part of May leans favorable. Most importantly, heavy cumulative rainfall of 1-3” will have an impact on OK, KS, IA, and parts of NE this week allowing for soil restoration. Odds of a Midwest summer drought are in retreat following a rather wet late March/April east of the Mississippi River, and as heat since late winter has been temporary. Additionally, showers are forecast across the Dakotas/MN in the 6-10 day period. The EU model’s 1-5 and 6-10 day precipitation forecast shows an active pattern continues, but minimal rain is forecast in MO, IL, IN, OH, and KY. This week’s return of warmth allows for timely corn/soybean seeding in coming weeks. It remains that near normal Central US precipitation is likely in May meaning that a summer drought is left to late June and July. A 2012 type of drought is off the table.
Global Weather Update
Neutral ENSO Likely During Northern Hemisphere Growing Season:
La Nina has ended and there’s broad agreement that neither La Nina or El Nino will be present during the remainder of spring and summer. Confidence in long range ocean temperatures details is low beyond the next 90 days, but on average neutral ENSO is forecast into October. The absence of La Nina, on balance, leans positive for Plains/Midwest precipitation into late 2025. Ag Resources (ARC) also notes that there’s no clear indication that countries that are more exposed to equatorial ocean temperature anomalies- such as Australia & Argentina – will see climate abnormalities. Neutral ENSO does noy guarantee favorable weather nor foreshadow high odds of regional droughts. The US will see near normal rainfall and near above normal temperatures in the next 30-45 days. The odds of a dire Midwest drought are shrinking-not rising which is important.
Corn Acreage Update
Corn swings in acreage between the March Planting Intentions report and the June Acreage report were routinely 1-2 million acres in the early 2000’s and through the biofuel era. From 2011 to 2018, changes were mostly less than 1 Mil acres abd generally positive changes. 2019-2020 were outliers. In 2019, widespread Midwest flooding delayed planting progress, and the average fell 2.3 Mil acres in June. In 2020, falling new crop prices and negative margins caused farmers to change crops or leave land idle. But for the last 4 years, corn acreage has increased in the June survey, with averaging 1.4 Mil acres. This year Ag Resources (ARC) is anticipating that US corn acreage will remain nearly unchanged. Early season planting progress has been on par with the average, and new crop prices continue to favor planting corn. ARC expects the June Acrage estimate of corn acres at 95.3 Mil acres. That number would be supportive from the March Acreage Report.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Flat; Foreign Markets Closed for Easter; Supply Threat Needed to Sustain Rallies Beyond mid-May:
CBOT corn ended unchanged despite another day of collapsing financial markets. US disappearance stays strong into the early part of summer as import demand is attracted as ethanol’s seasonal maintenance ends by early May. However, ARC reiterates it’s critical to use near-term seasonal strength to manage downside risk, and ARC targets boosting 25/26 hedges to 60-70% in the next 30 days. Brazilian and European markets were closed Monday. The US corn crop is 12% planted, vs. 10% on average in Mid-April. Regional delays occur for another 10-days, bur ARC’s work suggests planting progress reaches 35-45% complete by the first week of May. Seeding date issues will be avoided on a national basis. Beyond mid/late May an Hemisphere weather threat will be needed to keep July CBOT above $4.90 and Dec above $4.60. Be prepared to add forward sales on 10-15 cent rallies.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374