Grains 04/21/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower last week as futures found new support from stronger world market prices but as the weather for growing crops improved with more reports of showers in western growing areas. Rain has become much less in the southern Midwest and Mid South but flooding reports continue. The White House made a pause in the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days but is still imposing blanket tariffs on most of the world and is maintaining the old Mexican and Canadian tariffs. The tariffs will cost producers more for inputs and should damage upside price potential if the reciprocal tariffs start again. Chart trends are up in Winter Wheat markets and in Minneapolis. Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature. Overall demand has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 535, 521, and 518 May, with resistance at 557, 563, and 568 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 557, 546, and 542 May, with resistance at 577, 583, and 598 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up. Support is at 599, 593, and 578 May, and resistance is at 626, 635, and 646 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 558,884
: Positions :
: 57,483 150,500 205,120 117,976 75,099 137,750 92,425 518,328 523,144: 40,556 35,740
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: -13,217) :
: -1,996 -10,356 -895 -1,483 185 -4,093 1,116 -8,468 -9,950: -4,749 -3,267
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 26.9 36.7 21.1 13.4 24.6 16.5 92.7 93.6: 7.3 6.4
: Total Traders: 404 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 96 130 107 95 46 30 335 303:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 293,614
: Positions :
: 28,785 84,556 69,804 77,526 72,999 91,671 40,100 267,787 267,460: 25,827 26,154
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 6,072) :
: 1,646 -1,383 4,727 -3,966 -3,409 2,162 5,332 4,570 5,266: 1,502 806
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 28.8 23.8 26.4 24.9 31.2 13.7 91.2 91.1: 8.8 8.9
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 48 63 71 83 72 37 19 209 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 81,674 :
: Positions :
: 42,280 28,584 4,265 1,823 803 10,585 31,740 4,949 3,535 711 2,972 :
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 :
: -4,194 2,022 102 -561 116 -1,445 -9,134 -2,081 -424 -178 -1,062 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.8 35.0 5.2 2.2 1.0 13.0 38.9 6.1 4.3 0.9 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 109 :
: 51 38 6 . 5 10 24 13 5 6 7 :
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RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week but futures are still holding to a sideways trend. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is getting planted in southern growing areas now and is trying to get started farther to the north.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1323, 1315, and 1300 May and resistance is at 1365, 1383, and 1387 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,328 :
: Positions :
: 7,493 3,660 0 135 0 259 5,562 32 1,795 598 1,352 :
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 :
: -186 384 0 -9 0 -84 -936 25 -132 -112 -217 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.2 27.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.9 41.7 0.2 13.5 4.5 10.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 24 17 0 . 0 . 21 . 13 8 8 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week as demand for US Corn mains strong. The market also reacted to better planting weather in the Midwest and the latest in the tariff wars. Demand for Corn in domestic and world markets remains strong with inspections above 1.8 million tons and sales of above 1.5 million tons in the latest reporting week. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately and eastern and southern areas are too wet. It has become warmer in a lot of the Midwest and planting progress is expected to be much improved this week. Oats were mixed and the trends are up in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 477, 470, and 461 May, and resistance is at 492, 500, and 512 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 322, 317, and 312 May, and resistance is at 362, 367, and 371 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,326,601
: Positions :
: 164,887 181,774 732,719 715,314 1,052,290 530,201 135,437 2,143,120 2,102,219: 183,481 224,382
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: -89,056) :
: 21,353 -14,628 -130,729 -8,148 66,572 36,007 -5,677 -81,518 -84,462: -7,538 -4,594
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.1 7.8 31.5 30.7 45.2 22.8 5.8 92.1 90.4: 7.9 9.6
: Total Traders: 817 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 125 146 188 381 420 50 26 671 674:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the Soybean Meal closed a little lower last week and Soybean Oil closed a little higher as the market reacted to news of better demand due to high Brazil FOB premiums. There was news last week that the reciprocal tariffs have been put on pause for 90 days. The world wide tariff of 10% remains intact as do tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The reports of demand have remained solid for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Deferred months were higher as the weather remains too wet to the east and south and too dry to the west. Warmer temperatures are expected this week.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up Support is at 1028, 1011, and 991 May, and resistance is at 1051, 1055, and 1067 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up. Support is at 292.00, 289.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 310.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4580, 4440, and 4390 May, with resistance at 4850, 4920, and 5040 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,063,360
: Positions :
: 98,233 90,291 331,761 374,509 494,132 204,211 69,670 1,008,714 985,854: 54,646 77,506
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: -64,725) :
: 29,639 -40,282 -60,665 -21,091 54,374 -11,228 -17,103 -63,345 -63,677: -1,380 -1,048
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.2 8.5 31.2 35.2 46.5 19.2 6.6 94.9 92.7: 5.1 7.3
: Total Traders: 579 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 126 133 186 207 227 44 26 477 485:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 637,441
: Positions :
: 57,823 66,154 170,466 218,643 351,381 157,014 23,113 603,946 611,114: 33,495 26,326
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 2,716) :
: -4,549 -10,491 9,988 -717 4,292 -197 711 4,526 4,501: -1,810 -1,785
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 10.4 26.7 34.3 55.1 24.6 3.6 94.7 95.9: 5.3 4.1
: Total Traders: 322 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 76 105 104 104 41 21 277 251:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 674,594
: Positions :
: 53,558 118,012 185,255 257,359 294,088 122,928 42,955 619,100 640,309: 55,495 34,285
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: -19,440) :
: 265 -24,714 -6,243 -1,342 14,511 -6,053 -3,389 -13,372 -19,836: -6,068 396
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 17.5 27.5 38.2 43.6 18.2 6.4 91.8 94.9: 8.2 5.1
: Total Traders: 334 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 87 93 121 114 37 18 279 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower last week and lower again today on economic headwinds and continued concerns about the world economy stemming from the Trump tariffs and lon the Trump threat to replace the chairman of the Federal Reserve.. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things, but supplies are expected to increase soon. Demand ideas are weaker. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher last week and trends are still up on the daily charts. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US. Canada will not be exempted by the 90 day pause.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 645.00, 638.00, and 624.00 May, with resistance at 682.00, 690.00, and 696.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down. Support is at 4080, 3910, and 3790 June, with resistance at 4230, 4280, and 4340 June.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 13,572 :
: Positions :
: 9,954 7,544 390 2,502 824 420 0 300 1,274 1,982 380 :
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 :
: -1,470 910 0 0 0 60 -300 300 40 -1,940 -720 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 73.3 55.6 2.9 18.4 6.1 3.1 0.0 2.2 9.4 14.6 2.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 24 :
: 7 8 . 4 . . 0 . . 4 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 206,352 :
: Positions :
: 102,093 121,134 7,164 9,597 2,789 55,494 38,998 14,205 13,539 8,341 9,324 :
: Changes from: April 8, 2025 :
: -39,860 13,456 -2,394 -2,050 -616 22,105 -26,448 -1,835 3,146 -2,554 -2,149 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.5 58.7 3.5 4.7 1.4 26.9 18.9 6.9 6.6 4.0 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 292 :
: 59 60 5 5 6 50 33 24 65 50 43 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1000.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 975.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 945.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 950.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 960.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1005.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 980.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 950.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 955.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 965.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 970.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 960.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,120.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 482.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.368)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 274,500 lots, or 11.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 4,087 4,139 4,076 4,133 4,115 4,108 -7 75,183 52,537
Jul-25 4,122 4,173 4,103 4,166 4,143 4,141 -2 123,231 144,891
Sep-25 4,145 4,195 4,125 4,188 4,161 4,164 3 66,461 82,719
Nov-25 4,090 4,142 4,081 4,134 4,109 4,118 9 5,405 34,344
Jan-26 4,091 4,140 4,084 4,135 4,109 4,115 6 2,598 5,133
Mar-26 4,105 4,144 4,093 4,144 4,112 4,121 9 1,622 2,725
Corn
Turnover: 919,927 lots, or 21.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,245 2,260 2,240 2,258 2,250 2,250 0 166,269 405,292
Jul-25 2,289 2,304 2,280 2,302 2,293 2,292 -1 622,234 1,290,264
Sep-25 2,320 2,334 2,312 2,331 2,325 2,323 -2 83,471 309,802
Nov-25 2,267 2,282 2,261 2,281 2,271 2,272 1 30,313 197,498
Jan-26 2,263 2,275 2,255 2,275 2,264 2,267 3 9,874 44,973
Mar-26 2,258 2,277 2,256 2,275 2,262 2,265 3 7,766 16,401
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,666,929 lots, or 80.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,862 2,938 2,852 2,934 2,851 2,910 59 429,147 390,843
Jul-25 2,862 2,908 2,857 2,889 2,862 2,886 24 159,206 492,119
Aug-25 3,010 3,054 3,000 3,033 3,010 3,032 22 30,569 181,590
Sep-25 3,020 3,066 3,012 3,045 3,019 3,043 24 1,817,594 2,399,555
Nov-25 3,059 3,093 3,041 3,072 3,046 3,069 23 39,483 269,272
Dec-25 3,068 3,100 3,057 3,081 3,059 3,078 19 8,681 82,390
Jan-26 3,045 3,081 3,038 3,062 3,040 3,062 22 165,518 518,377
Mar-26 2,909 2,923 2,901 2,909 2,904 2,910 6 16,731 86,165
Palm Oil
Turnover: 842,307 lots, or 68.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 8,558 8,590 8,516 8,540 8,642 8,552 -90 71,872 55,234
Jun-25 8,340 8,376 8,264 8,308 8,408 8,314 -94 4,951 8,138
Jul-25 8,246 8,288 8,160 8,214 8,300 8,218 -82 3,703 7,460
Aug-25 8,160 8,218 8,100 8,120 8,216 8,136 -80 74 817
Sep-25 8,110 8,162 8,008 8,068 8,164 8,076 -88 740,461 379,404
Oct-25 8,100 8,128 7,994 8,010 8,130 8,038 -92 36 1,072
Nov-25 8,050 8,110 7,976 8,020 8,126 8,026 -100 38 648
Dec-25 8,052 8,078 7,980 8,016 8,124 8,030 -94 28 204
Jan-26 8,060 8,100 7,960 8,006 8,112 8,018 -94 21,096 62,777
Feb-26 8,038 8,060 7,980 7,990 8,104 8,026 -78 17 808
Mar-26 8,010 8,054 7,956 7,986 8,112 8,008 -104 27 86
Apr-26 8,028 8,046 7,984 7,984 8,064 8,026 -38 4 5
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 433,001 lots, or 3.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,702 7,816 7,702 7,790 7,754 7,758 4 62,927 82,853
Jul-25 7,676 7,734 7,658 7,688 7,700 7,686 -14 5,327 16,470
Aug-25 7,710 7,756 7,686 7,726 7,732 7,720 -12 907 5,983
Sep-25 7,698 7,750 7,676 7,722 7,732 7,706 -26 343,658 576,914
Nov-25 7,710 7,766 7,700 7,736 7,758 7,724 -34 84 1,927
Dec-25 7,710 7,760 7,700 7,744 7,758 7,732 -26 14 222
Jan-26 7,640 7,682 7,616 7,660 7,674 7,642 -32 19,911 85,281
Mar-26 7,584 7,622 7,582 7,618 7,620 7,600 -20 173 778
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322