Softs Report 04/17/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in recovery trading and despite demand concerns from the tariff battles as demand has been holding for now. The lack of change in the China tariffs hurt demand ideas as did news that the US has warmed other countries not to act as intermediaries for the Chinese in trade deals and imports and exports. USDA made no changes to the production estimates or total supply but did cut export demand by 10 million bales and increased ending stocks levels to 5.0 million bales. World stocks estimates were also higher. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.31 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.60, and 60.80 May, with resistance of 66.20, 67.80 and 68.50 May.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 17
For the week ended Apr 10, in
running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 202.0 65.9 10755.2 11117.2 3665.9 1133.9
pima cotton 2.4 0.0 387.9 282.2 96.4 1.7

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday as the uptrend in this market continued. USDA reported a slight increase in US oranges production in its reports released on Thursday. The increase was in California and will not have effect on the production of FCOJ in Florida. Trends are turning up for the short term. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 283.00, 271.00, and 268.00 May, with resistance at 321.00, 341.00, and 358.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher again yesterday on ideas of good demand against ideas of less supplies available to the market. The lack of offers from Brazil continues. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans. Safras e Mercado said that farmers have sold 12% of the harvest so far this year from a more normal 25% last year. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. Trends are up on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 339.91 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 361.00, 342.00, and 325.00 May, and resistance is at 393.00, 405.00 and 418.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5260, 5130, and 4880 May, with resistance at 5480, 556w0, and 5620 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher in recovery trading. Ideas of good supplies and less demand continue, although demand ideas got a boost from the latest tariff news late last week. President Trump paused the implementation of the tariffs for 90 days, but the world tariff of 10% remains intact as do the previous tariffs on Mexico and Canada. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1730, 1690, and 1650 July and resistance is at 1790, 1830, and 1860 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 488.00, 484.00, and 478.00 August, with resistance at 505.00, 513.00, and 521.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher despite fears that the world was entering a recession or depression due to the Trump tariff moves of last week. Trends are down in London and in New York, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum, but Ivory Coast is no longer facing tariffs up to about 21% as the reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 7640, 7520, and 7400 May, with resistance at 8620, 8890, and 9340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5580, 5460, and 5320 May, with resistance at 6310, 6440, and 6820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322