Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Building Permits Prel, Export Sales, Housing Starts, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts MoM, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, and Philly Fed Prices Paid at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 10:45 A.M., 15- Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 5-Year TIPS Auction, Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
US industrial production fell by 0.3% in March, which was slightly more than expected. This was largely led by declines in the utility sector due to warmer-than-usual temperatures during the month. Electricity output declined 5.1%, and natural gas plunged 11.1%. Compared to a year ago, industrial production rose for the 4th consecutive month, increasing 1.3% on an annualized basis. Despite the monthly drop in utility production, utilities were down were down 4.4% higher than a year ago, while both manufacturing and mining increased by 1%. This marked the 3rd consecutive month of manufacturing growth, which has not happened since October 2022. Capacity utilization in March declined to 77.8% from 78.2% in February, which was led my a decline in utility sector utilization increased to 0.2% to 77.3%. .
US Weather Pattern Discussion
Rainfall Favors Midwest Next 10-Days; Sustained Central Warmth Begins April 18th:
The major forecast models have shifted heavy rain chances eastward and away from the drier areas of the US Plains into late month. There are hints of scattered showers in central KS/HE in the 7-10 day period, but the widespread/soaking event is needed to ease developing drought is absent. Planting/fieldwork delays return to MO, IL, & IN as rainfall of 2-4” is forecasted there Sat-Mon. Heavier localized totals favor MO & southern Illinois. Otherwise, the Midwest outlook is nonthreatening as drier conditions occur after April 21st and as above normal temps are most probable throughout the 6-15 day period. Highs in the 70’s become common in IA, IL, IN, and OH after April 24th . Timely seeding is anticipated. Concerns remain elevated for the Plains drought expansion. NOAA calculates that rainfall of 5.5-9.0” is needed in the next 50 days to end drought in KS, NE, & SD. Warming temps accelerates the need for immediate rainfall.
EU/Black Sea Weather Forecast
Unwanted Rain Forecast in France; Black Sea Warm/Arid Next Two Weeks:
The European/Black Sea pattern is forecasting to stagnant into late April. Heavy rainfall favors France and northern Italy . Soil moisture loss persists elsewhere and warmer than normal temps and a near complete lack of precipitation. Issues are centered on excessive water in France and deepening dryness in far northern Europe, eastern Ukraine and S Russia – were rejuvenated by early April rainfall of 1.2—1.6”, but much more is needed as max temps there begin to reach into the 70’s. The Black Sea weather closely, as Ag Resources (ARC)climate works targets the region with prolonged dryness into summer. Recall it’s May-June that makes or breaks winter crop potential.
CBOT corn futures ended higher amid hope US Ag avoids potential surcharges on Chinese-made vessels at US ports. Additionally, this morning’s export sales report is expected to feature strong demand again. ARC reiterates weekly US corn sales of just 17 Mil Bu are needed to meet USDA’s forecast , which ARC views as 100 Mil Bu too low. US corn remains the world’s cheapest origin for May-June arrival. Fob premiums in Argentina and Ukraine have firmed slightly this week. Yet, rallies will be challenged without new supply threats. The US cash market appears to have no issues moving supply, even at export terminals. Threats to Midwest seeding minimal over next two weeks. The Brazilian forecast has trended much drier beyond the next 10 days, but needed rain is still offered to Mato Grosso do Sul into the weekend. Use ant 5-10 cent rally to catch up on old crop sales. ARC maintains in initial upside target in December futures of $4.75-$4.80.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Updated Drier Weather Forecast Brazil & EU/Black Sea. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/17/2025
We kickoff the day with Building Permits Prel, Export Sales, Housing Starts, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts MoM, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, and Philly Fed Prices Paid at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 10:45 A.M., 15- Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 5-Year TIPS Auction, Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
US industrial production fell by 0.3% in March, which was slightly more than expected. This was largely led by declines in the utility sector due to warmer-than-usual temperatures during the month. Electricity output declined 5.1%, and natural gas plunged 11.1%. Compared to a year ago, industrial production rose for the 4th consecutive month, increasing 1.3% on an annualized basis. Despite the monthly drop in utility production, utilities were down were down 4.4% higher than a year ago, while both manufacturing and mining increased by 1%. This marked the 3rd consecutive month of manufacturing growth, which has not happened since October 2022. Capacity utilization in March declined to 77.8% from 78.2% in February, which was led my a decline in utility sector utilization increased to 0.2% to 77.3%. .
US Weather Pattern Discussion
Rainfall Favors Midwest Next 10-Days; Sustained Central Warmth Begins April 18th:
The major forecast models have shifted heavy rain chances eastward and away from the drier areas of the US Plains into late month. There are hints of scattered showers in central KS/HE in the 7-10 day period, but the widespread/soaking event is needed to ease developing drought is absent. Planting/fieldwork delays return to MO, IL, & IN as rainfall of 2-4” is forecasted there Sat-Mon. Heavier localized totals favor MO & southern Illinois. Otherwise, the Midwest outlook is nonthreatening as drier conditions occur after April 21st and as above normal temps are most probable throughout the 6-15 day period. Highs in the 70’s become common in IA, IL, IN, and OH after April 24th . Timely seeding is anticipated. Concerns remain elevated for the Plains drought expansion. NOAA calculates that rainfall of 5.5-9.0” is needed in the next 50 days to end drought in KS, NE, & SD. Warming temps accelerates the need for immediate rainfall.
EU/Black Sea Weather Forecast
Unwanted Rain Forecast in France; Black Sea Warm/Arid Next Two Weeks:
The European/Black Sea pattern is forecasting to stagnant into late April. Heavy rainfall favors France and northern Italy . Soil moisture loss persists elsewhere and warmer than normal temps and a near complete lack of precipitation. Issues are centered on excessive water in France and deepening dryness in far northern Europe, eastern Ukraine and S Russia – were rejuvenated by early April rainfall of 1.2—1.6”, but much more is needed as max temps there begin to reach into the 70’s. The Black Sea weather closely, as Ag Resources (ARC)climate works targets the region with prolonged dryness into summer. Recall it’s May-June that makes or breaks winter crop potential.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Spot Corn Recovers; Brazilian Forecast Abruptly Drier; Interior US Basis Unremarkable:
CBOT corn futures ended higher amid hope US Ag avoids potential surcharges on Chinese-made vessels at US ports. Additionally, this morning’s export sales report is expected to feature strong demand again. ARC reiterates weekly US corn sales of just 17 Mil Bu are needed to meet USDA’s forecast , which ARC views as 100 Mil Bu too low. US corn remains the world’s cheapest origin for May-June arrival. Fob premiums in Argentina and Ukraine have firmed slightly this week. Yet, rallies will be challenged without new supply threats. The US cash market appears to have no issues moving supply, even at export terminals. Threats to Midwest seeding minimal over next two weeks. The Brazilian forecast has trended much drier beyond the next 10 days, but needed rain is still offered to Mato Grosso do Sul into the weekend. Use ant 5-10 cent rally to catch up on old crop sales. ARC maintains in initial upside target in December futures of $4.75-$4.80.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374