Softs Report 04/15/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday after the White House paused the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, but kept the world base tariffs intact at 10% and Canadian and Mexican tariffs intact and the punitive tariffs on China as they were previously. The lack of change in the China tariffs hurt demand ideas as did news that the US has warmed other countries not to act as intermediaries for the Chinese in trade deals and imports and exports. USDA made no changes to the production estimates or total supply but did cut export demand by 10 million bales and increased ending stocks levels to 5.0 million bales. World stocks estimates were also higher. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems, and farmers are in the fields.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 64.54 ct/lb. USDA said that Cotton is now 5% planted, from 4% last week, 5% last year and 8% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 62.60, 58.80, and 57.60 May, with resistance of 66.20, 67.80 and 68.50 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up yesterday in response to reduced supply. USDA reported a slight increase in US oranges production in its reports released on Thursday. The increase was in California and will not have effect on the production of FCOJ in Florida. Trends are turning up for the short term. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 259.00, 244.00, and 232.00 May, with resistance at 317.00, 300.00, and 417.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday as the president backed down from the trade war and announced a 90 day pause in its implementation. Most affected by the move was the Coffee from Vietnam which was to be tariffed at high rates and now might not have any tariff at all. The tariffs threatened to bring a recession or depression to the world economies. Coffee is being tariffed even though the US does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii. The lack of offers from Brazil continues. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. Trends are mixed on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 328.52 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 342.00, 325.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 365.00, 372.00 and 393.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5100, 4880, and 4630 May, with resistance at 5290, 5400, and 5480 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower again on ideas of good supplies and less demand, although demand ideas got a boost from the latest tariff news late last week. President Trump paused the implementation of the tariffs for 90 days, but the world tariff of 10% remains intact as do the previous tariffs on Mexico and Canada. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1760, 1750, and 1730 July and resistance is at 1830, 1860, and 1880 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 495.00, 491.00, and 484.00 August, with resistance at 505.00, 513.00, and 521.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower despite reduced fears that the world was entering a recession or depression due to the Trump tariff moves of last week. Trends are down in London but mixed in New York, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum, but Ivory Coast is no longer facing tariffs up to about 21% as the reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7640, 7520, and 7400 May, with resistance at 8620, 8890, and 9340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5580, 5460, and 5320 May, with resistance at 6310, 6440, and 6820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322