Softs Report 04/14/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week after the White House paused the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, but kept the world base tariffs intact at 10% and Canadian and Mexican tariffs intact as they were previously, and also in response to the supply and demand reports issued by USDA. USDA made no changes to the production estimates or total supply but did cut export demand by 10 million bales and increased ending stocks levels to 5.0 million bales. World stocks estimates were also higher. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems, and farmers are in the fields.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.92 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 64.30, 62.60, and 58.80 May, with resistance of 67.80, 68.50 and 69.20 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 08, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 326,215
: Positions :
: 29,553 91,032 86,777 111,665 107,248 80,606 22,912 308,601 307,970: 17,614 18,245
: Changes from: April 1, 2025 (Change in open interest: -19,687) :
: -7,227 -14,303 -3,074 -2,045 -274 -8,252 -7,889 -20,598 -25,539: 912 5,852
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 27.9 26.6 34.2 32.9 24.7 7.0 94.6 94.4: 5.4 5.6
: Total Traders: 331 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 116 101 76 65 44 25 264 248:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed much higher last week in response to the pause on tariff implementation made by the White House. Tariffs for the world remain at 10% but the reciprocal tariffs are gone. Chinese tariffs are very high, and the Mexican and Canadian tariffs remain as they were. USDA reported a slight increase in US oranges production in its reports released on Thursday. The increase was in California and will not have effect on the production of FCOJ in Florida. Trends are turning up for the short term. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 244.00, 232.00, and 211.00 May, with resistance at 288.00, 300.00, and 417.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 8, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,591 :
: Positions :
: 4,822 8,181 485 225 259 2,609 1,511 51 2,081 330 4,005 :
: Changes from: April 1, 2025 :
: 204 -124 0 13 80 -4 218 51 -19 91 224 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.1 49.3 2.9 1.4 1.6 15.7 9.1 0.3 12.5 2.0 24.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 10 8 . . . 8 12 . 15 6 7 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed a little lower last week as the president backed down from the trade war and announced a 90 day pause in its implementation. The tariffs threatened to bring a recession or depression to the world economies. Coffee is being tariffed even though the US does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii. Vietnam products are being tariffed to a significant degree. The lack of offers from Brazil continue with prices dropping. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term, but a few showers are reported in Coffee areas now. Trends are mixed on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 322.68 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 342.00, 325.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 365.00, 372.00 and 393.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4880, 4630, and 4550 May, with resistance at 5170, 5290, and 5400 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 08, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 225,149
: Positions :
: 34,962 9,444 76,045 62,084 121,279 43,318 11,281 216,408 218,049: 8,741 7,100
: Changes from: April 1, 2025 (Change in open interest: 219) :
: -8,786 509 3,565 10,027 -3,498 -3,708 -365 1,099 212: -880 7
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 4.2 33.8 27.6 53.9 19.2 5.0 96.1 96.8: 3.9 3.2
: Total Traders: 346 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 74 106 91 110 43 18 282 270:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower on ideas of good supplies and less demand due to the tariffs imposed by the White House. President Trump paused the implementation of the tariffs for 90 days, but the world tariff of 10% remains intact as do the previous tariffs on Mexico and Canada. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 May and resistance is at 1850, 1870, and 1910 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 513.00, 501.00, and 496.00 May, with resistance at 531.00, 540.00, and 547.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 08, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,002,227
: Positions :
: 99,987 149,153 223,350 365,842 525,299 240,770 42,116 929,949 939,918: 72,278 62,309
: Changes from: April 1, 2025 (Change in open interest: -24,804) :
: -14,520 -10,451 -20,014 34,163 10,522 -22,501 -12,425 -22,872 -32,368: -1,932 7,564
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 14.9 22.3 36.5 52.4 24.0 4.2 92.8 93.8: 7.2 6.2
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 48 78 74 72 38 18 205 179:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York closed the week little changed and London closed a little lower despite reduced fears that the world was entering a recession or depression due to the Trump tariff moves of last week. Trends are down in London but mixed in New York, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum, but Ivory Coast is no longer facing tariffs up to about 21% as the reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days.. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast farmers reported below normal rainfall last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7640, 7520, and 7400 May, with resistance at 8590, 8890, and 9340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5580, 5460, and 5320 May, with resistance at 6310, 6440, and 6820 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 08, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 122,292
: Positions :
: 16,497 8,599 35,020 44,048 61,807 16,569 10,773 112,135 116,199: 10,157 6,093
: Changes from: April 1, 2025 (Change in open interest: -19,961) :
: -1,319 -2,560 -6,568 -11,696 -7,203 61 -2,565 -19,523 -18,896: -439 -1,065
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 7.0 28.6 36.0 50.5 13.5 8.8 91.7 95.0: 8.3 5.0
: Total Traders: 151 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 34 61 31 30 28 15 135 115:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322