Softs Report 04/10/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday after there was no news on the Trump tariffs that threaten to greatly increase the costs of imports from China and Vietnam among other things. Vietnam has tried to negotiate the tariffs according to the White House but China is not interested in negotiations. Both are major importers of US Cotton and sell goods made with that Cotton back to the US, so that trade could be lost. There were also some moves in Congress to control the tariffs created by President Trump, but it was not clear that the bills would have enough support to pass. The president announced a 90 day pause in implementing the tariffs yesterday. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.00 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 64.30, 62.60, and 58.80 May, with resistance of 67.10, 67.80 and 68.50 May.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 10
For the week ended Apr 3, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 115.1 18.9 10553.2 10971.1 3792.1 1068.0
pima cotton 2.7 0.0 385.5 279.4 100.7 1.7

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up as the Trump tariff proposals should have supported FCOJ for domestic consumption and as many countries are reported by the White House to have reached out and try to negotiate. The president announced a 90 day pause in implementing the tariffs yesterday. Trends are mixed for the short term. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 232.00, 211.00, and 204.00 May, with resistance at 269.00, 276.00, and 288.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: London closed mixed to higher yesterday and New York was higher in response a lack of news on the Trumpp tariffs. The tariffs are threatening to bring a recession or depression to the world economies, but at least some countries are now reported by the White House as trying to negotiate with the White House to prevent a collapse in the world economy. The president announced a 90 day pause in implementing the tariffs yesterday. Coffee is being tariffed even though the US does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii. Vietnam products are being tariffed to a significant degree. The lack of offers from Brazil continue with prices dropping. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 309.74 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 325.00, 317.00, and 312.00 May, and resistance is at 350.00, 365.00 and 372.00 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4630, 4550, and 4450 May, with resistance at 5080, 5170, and 5290 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower once again on follow through selling as the Trump tariffs are causing many analysts to look for a worldwide recession or depression. News that at least some countries were reported by the White House as trying to reach out and negotiate did not help prices in Sugar much. The president announced a 90 day pause in implementing the tariffs yesterday. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 May and resistance is at 1850, 1870, and 1910 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 513.00, 501.00, and 496.00 May, with resistance at 524.00, 531.00, and 540.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on reduced fears that the world was entering a recession or depression due to the Trump tariff moves of last week. The president announced a 90 day pause in implementing the tariffs yesterday. Many countries are trying to negotiate with the US according to the White House but this has not changed the trajectory of the softs markets. Trends are down in London but mixed in New York, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum, with Ivory Coast facing tariffs up to about 21%. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast farmers reported below normal rainfall last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7640, 7520, and 7400 May, with resistance at 8590, 8890, and 9340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5580, 5460, and 5320 May, with resistance at 6210, 6440, and 6820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322