Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 11:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
On the tariff front many countries are calling to make deals with the Trump Administration. It would be the best case scenario that we could cut a deal with some counties abolishing tariffs and excise tax completely. After thinking China would tone down their response yesterday, Beijing came back and raised tariffs to 84%. This should not end so good for China with their current economic shape.
The National Federation of Independent Business released the results of it’s March survey of business owners. The NFIB’s Small business Optimism slipped 3.3 points in March to a 5-month low of 97.4. After an initial surge following the 2024 presidential election, business owners expectations for sales growth has moderated. The sub-index for expected sales growth was down 11 points for the month to a net 3%. The percentage of owners that expected better business conditions dropped 16 points to a net 21%. Other decreases were recorded for earnings trends, plans to increase employment, now is a good time to expand, current inventory, and expected credit conditions – all of which pulled the index back below the long-term average. Despite those monthly declines, the index was still 10% higher than a year ago, marking the 7th consecutive month of year-over-year increases and the 5th consecutive month of double-digit games.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Central US Dryness to Aid Crop Planting in the West; Lasting Warmth in the E Midwest Awaits Late April:
The Central US forecast trending wetter in the Delta & S Midwest after Aprill 22 nd,, but remains consistent over the next 10 days. Any additional precipitation through the period will favor the far E Midwest & east coast. Near complete dryness blankets all other areas. This along with warming temps in the Plains and W Corn Belt allows early planting to begin in the second half of April, but concern over deepening Plains dryness and abnormally cold temps in the Great Lakes region remains in place. Deep low pressure aloft in E Canada does slowly fade beginning this weekend. This allows temps to reach into the upper 60’s & 70’s (upper 80’s in TX) west of the Mississippi River after April 12th . Warmth eventually reaches the Great Lakes/E Midwest, but not until after April 21. Soil temps in WI, IL, IN, and MI today in the upper 30’s & 40’s
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Scores Three-Week High; US Exporters Sell to Spain:
CBOT corn ended higher for a second day following FAS announcing Spain overnight purchased 240,000 MT’s of US origin. It does not appear US tariffs/retaliation will directly impact US corn export demand in the near term, and rather the risk of one longer term loss of market share. It remains that large N Hemisphere crops are needed to build global stocks in crop year 25/26. Updated US forecast project another lows from KS to OF April 20-21. It’s too early to be concerned about planting dates, but Midwest warmth/dryness is needed in May. Ethanol, like corn, has shrugged off collapses in the financial and energy markets. Also like corn, US origin ethanol is competitive in the global market. Weekly grind stays at/above year ago levels throughout the balance of spring. The spot Midwest swap ethanol market is quoted at $1.78?Gal vs. $1.70 late March. New cash sales are not recommended at current prices. However, rallies will be labored – and more tied to cash markets – amid rising odds of global economic contraction fears.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
One Tariff Deal Equities Markets Should Soar. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/09/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 11:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
On the tariff front many countries are calling to make deals with the Trump Administration. It would be the best case scenario that we could cut a deal with some counties abolishing tariffs and excise tax completely. After thinking China would tone down their response yesterday, Beijing came back and raised tariffs to 84%. This should not end so good for China with their current economic shape.
The National Federation of Independent Business released the results of it’s March survey of business owners. The NFIB’s Small business Optimism slipped 3.3 points in March to a 5-month low of 97.4. After an initial surge following the 2024 presidential election, business owners expectations for sales growth has moderated. The sub-index for expected sales growth was down 11 points for the month to a net 3%. The percentage of owners that expected better business conditions dropped 16 points to a net 21%. Other decreases were recorded for earnings trends, plans to increase employment, now is a good time to expand, current inventory, and expected credit conditions – all of which pulled the index back below the long-term average. Despite those monthly declines, the index was still 10% higher than a year ago, marking the 7th consecutive month of year-over-year increases and the 5th consecutive month of double-digit games.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Central US Dryness to Aid Crop Planting in the West; Lasting Warmth in the E Midwest Awaits Late April:
The Central US forecast trending wetter in the Delta & S Midwest after Aprill 22 nd,, but remains consistent over the next 10 days. Any additional precipitation through the period will favor the far E Midwest & east coast. Near complete dryness blankets all other areas. This along with warming temps in the Plains and W Corn Belt allows early planting to begin in the second half of April, but concern over deepening Plains dryness and abnormally cold temps in the Great Lakes region remains in place. Deep low pressure aloft in E Canada does slowly fade beginning this weekend. This allows temps to reach into the upper 60’s & 70’s (upper 80’s in TX) west of the Mississippi River after April 12th . Warmth eventually reaches the Great Lakes/E Midwest, but not until after April 21. Soil temps in WI, IL, IN, and MI today in the upper 30’s & 40’s
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Scores Three-Week High; US Exporters Sell to Spain:
CBOT corn ended higher for a second day following FAS announcing Spain overnight purchased 240,000 MT’s of US origin. It does not appear US tariffs/retaliation will directly impact US corn export demand in the near term, and rather the risk of one longer term loss of market share. It remains that large N Hemisphere crops are needed to build global stocks in crop year 25/26. Updated US forecast project another lows from KS to OF April 20-21. It’s too early to be concerned about planting dates, but Midwest warmth/dryness is needed in May. Ethanol, like corn, has shrugged off collapses in the financial and energy markets. Also like corn, US origin ethanol is competitive in the global market. Weekly grind stays at/above year ago levels throughout the balance of spring. The spot Midwest swap ethanol market is quoted at $1.78?Gal vs. $1.70 late March. New cash sales are not recommended at current prices. However, rallies will be labored – and more tied to cash markets – amid rising odds of global economic contraction fears.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374