Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Kugler Speech at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Consumer Credit Change and New Car Sales at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The monthly jobs report showed that the US economy added 228,000 jobs in March, well above the downwardly revised 117,000 jobs in February, beating expectations of 135,000 jobs. Increases were noted in health care (54,000), social assistance (24,000), and transportation & warehousing (23,000). Retail trade also increased by 24,000 jobs. Federal government employment declined by 4,000 jobs after falling 11,000 in February. The unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of 4.2%, but the U-6 employment rate, which includes marginally involved workers and workers forced to work for economic reasons, declined slightly to 7.9)%. Labors force participation increased somewhat fro February but remained low at 62.5%. The question from now on is layoffs and rising recession risks.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Flooding Ahead in Midsouth; Additional Rain in E Midwest April 10-11; Plains Arid:
The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs. Highlighted issues remain excessive rainfall/flooding in the mid-south and a deepening of drought west of IA. Ag Resources (ARC) does expect early planting to begin across the C Plains and W Corn Belt in the next two weeks, but limited activity is anticipated in IL, IN, OH, and KY into late month. Additional rainfall of 2-6” has been recorded in AR, W TN, and southern IN. This is where flood concerns are elevated – April 1-7, rainfall in AR, TN, and KY is likely to reach 8-12”. A pattern of dryness and warming temps cover the entire C & N Plains as well as IA and MN through April 20th. This is favorable to fieldwork but implies a worsening drought in KS, NE, and the Dakotas into mid-month. HRW wheat is in need of rain.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Resilient in Face of Financial Collapse; US Export Potential Bright:
CBOT corn futures ended firm, with July-Dec spread widening again on strong and potentially brightening US export demand. Whispers of Vietnam coming to the table to renegotiate with the Trump administration opens the door to a sizable new market. This along with free trade between the US & Mexico keeps US export disappearance near record large during the spring and early summer. Strength in corn makes fundamental sense. World trade through late March is on track to exceed USDA’s forecast. Amid ARC’s trimming of US end stocks by 150 Mil Bu last week, exporter stocks/use drops to a record low 7.1% – and assumes a trend safrinha yields in Brazil. Cash corn supplies are globally tight. Any meaningful replenishment of inventories awaits the Brazilian harvest in July/Aug and the N Hemisphere harvest in Sep/Oct. As such, cash basis is expected to strengthen. This keeps the upside at $4.90-$5.20 basis July Chicago. Net fund length has fallen 57,000 contracts to 75,000 last week and vs. a peak of 364,000 in February. ARC holds to a view of the July-Dec cprn spread rising to $.35-$.45 with December futures seeing keen resistance above $4.65-$4.75. Add to forward sales above $4.60.
Moving in the Right Direction. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/07/2025
We kickoff the day with Fed Kugler Speech at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Consumer Credit Change and New Car Sales at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The monthly jobs report showed that the US economy added 228,000 jobs in March, well above the downwardly revised 117,000 jobs in February, beating expectations of 135,000 jobs. Increases were noted in health care (54,000), social assistance (24,000), and transportation & warehousing (23,000). Retail trade also increased by 24,000 jobs. Federal government employment declined by 4,000 jobs after falling 11,000 in February. The unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of 4.2%, but the U-6 employment rate, which includes marginally involved workers and workers forced to work for economic reasons, declined slightly to 7.9)%. Labors force participation increased somewhat fro February but remained low at 62.5%. The question from now on is layoffs and rising recession risks.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Flooding Ahead in Midsouth; Additional Rain in E Midwest April 10-11; Plains Arid:
The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs. Highlighted issues remain excessive rainfall/flooding in the mid-south and a deepening of drought west of IA. Ag Resources (ARC) does expect early planting to begin across the C Plains and W Corn Belt in the next two weeks, but limited activity is anticipated in IL, IN, OH, and KY into late month. Additional rainfall of 2-6” has been recorded in AR, W TN, and southern IN. This is where flood concerns are elevated – April 1-7, rainfall in AR, TN, and KY is likely to reach 8-12”. A pattern of dryness and warming temps cover the entire C & N Plains as well as IA and MN through April 20th. This is favorable to fieldwork but implies a worsening drought in KS, NE, and the Dakotas into mid-month. HRW wheat is in need of rain.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Resilient in Face of Financial Collapse; US Export Potential Bright:
CBOT corn futures ended firm, with July-Dec spread widening again on strong and potentially brightening US export demand. Whispers of Vietnam coming to the table to renegotiate with the Trump administration opens the door to a sizable new market. This along with free trade between the US & Mexico keeps US export disappearance near record large during the spring and early summer. Strength in corn makes fundamental sense. World trade through late March is on track to exceed USDA’s forecast. Amid ARC’s trimming of US end stocks by 150 Mil Bu last week, exporter stocks/use drops to a record low 7.1% – and assumes a trend safrinha yields in Brazil. Cash corn supplies are globally tight. Any meaningful replenishment of inventories awaits the Brazilian harvest in July/Aug and the N Hemisphere harvest in Sep/Oct. As such, cash basis is expected to strengthen. This keeps the upside at $4.90-$5.20 basis July Chicago. Net fund length has fallen 57,000 contracts to 75,000 last week and vs. a peak of 364,000 in February. ARC holds to a view of the July-Dec cprn spread rising to $.35-$.45 with December futures seeing keen resistance above $4.65-$4.75. Add to forward sales above $4.60.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374