Softs Report 04/07/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower last week in response to the Trump tariffs that threaten to greatly increase the costs of imports from China and Vietnam among other things. Both are major importers of US Cotton and sell goods made with that Cotton back to the US, so that trade could be lost. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 65.25 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 60.80, 60.00, and 58.80 May, with resistance of 64.80, 66.20 and 67.10 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 345,902
: Positions :
: 36,780 105,335 89,851 113,710 107,522 88,858 30,801 329,199 333,509: 16,703 12,393
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 12,304) :
: 4,339 -1,791 5,724 -4,640 7,733 5,876 2,486 11,299 14,152: 1,005 -1,848
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 30.5 26.0 32.9 31.1 25.7 8.9 95.2 96.4: 4.8 3.6
: Total Traders: 349 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 120 109 78 63 45 25 284 253:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week as the selling continued, this time in response to the Trump tariff proposals that should have supported FCOJ for domestic consumption. It didn’t because there are fears of a worlwide recession developing. The down trend in prices remains intact. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 206.00, 200.00, and 194.00 May, with resistance at 244.00, 269.00, and 289.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 1, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,053 :
: Positions :
: 4,618 8,304 485 211 178 2,613 1,293 0 2,100 239 3,781 :
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 :
: -153 12 0 -94 138 -87 -43 -8 112 -446 56 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.8 51.7 3.0 1.3 1.1 16.3 8.1 0.0 13.1 1.5 23.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 12 9 . . . 8 9 0 17 5 7 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week and near the lows of the week in response to the Trump tariff announcements. Coffee is being tariffed even though the US does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii. Vietnam products are being tariffed to a significant degree and so are those from Brazil. Traders were taking a little price from the sell side of the market to cut the damage from the tariffs being enforced and in hopes to maintain demand strength. The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans and are hoping for higher prices. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 340.50 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 361.00, 354.00, and 346.00 May, and resistance is at 405.00, 408.00 and 414.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5010 4920, and 4840 May, with resistance at 5310, 5420, and 5640 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 224,930
: Positions :
: 43,747 8,935 72,480 52,057 124,776 47,026 11,646 215,309 217,837: 9,620 7,092
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 457) :
: -2,940 1,324 -580 5,286 -161 -928 104 839 687: -381 -230
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.4 4.0 32.2 23.1 55.5 20.9 5.2 95.7 96.8: 4.3 3.2
: Total Traders: 363 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 118 75 115 81 109 46 18 293 276:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher last week, but saw selling in both market late in the week in response to the Trump tariff news. The tariffs threaten to cause a worldwide recession that could hurt demand here in the US and in other countries in the world. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and forecasts for more showers in the next couple of weeks and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Indian production is expected to be a disappointment this year. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1820 May and resistance is at 1970, 2010, and 2030 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 531.00, 523.00, and 513.00 May, with resistance at 555.00, 567.00, and 573.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,027,031
: Positions :
: 114,508 159,604 243,364 331,679 514,777 263,271 54,541 952,821 972,286: 74,209 54,745
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: -3,771) :
: 6,063 -299 5,475 -3,033 -1,369 -8,571 -6,636 -65 -2,829: -3,706 -942
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 15.5 23.7 32.3 50.1 25.6 5.3 92.8 94.7: 7.2 5.3
: Total Traders: 237 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 48 81 73 70 40 19 217 179:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week despite the Trump tariff moves. Trends are still generally up in these markets, but demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, and Ivory coast has already said that offers into the world market will be less this year. Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 8780, 8680, and 8590 May, with resistance at 9650, 9860, and 9990 May. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 6470, 6270, and 5960 May, with resistance at 6870, 7050, and 7500 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 142,253
: Positions :
: 17,815 11,159 41,589 55,744 69,010 16,509 13,338 131,657 135,095: 10,595 7,158
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 6,267) :
: 1,913 1,743 693 1,611 1,820 1,464 1,311 5,681 5,567: 586 701
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 7.8 29.2 39.2 48.5 11.6 9.4 92.6 95.0: 7.4 5.0
: Total Traders: 160 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 40 61 33 32 27 15 140 120:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322