Grains Report 04/01/2025

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean
Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Mar. 1, 2025 (million bushels)
Monday’s USDA USDA
Estimate Average Range Mar. 2024 Dec. 2024
Corn 8,151 8,195 8,060-8,500 8,352 12,075
Soybeans 1,910 1,895 1,823-1,949 1,845 3,100
Wheat 1,237 1,220 1,169-1,252 1,089 1,573

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Grain, Soybean Prospective Planting
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s U.S. Grain,
Soybean Prospective Planting reports and how the
government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts
in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
2025
Monday’s
Estimates Average Range USDA 2024
Corn 95.326 94.165 90.4-96.6 90.594
Soybeans 83.495 83.760 82.5-85.5 87.050
All Wheat 45.350 46.392 45.4-47.0 46.079
Winter Wheat 33.315 33.851 33.3-34.3 33.390
Spring Wheat 10.020 10.454 10.0-11.1 10.625
Durum Wheat 2.015 2.055 1.9-2.3 2.064

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 31
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon March 31, 2025 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 27, 2025
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/27/2025 03/20/2025 03/28/2024 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 318 0 122 9,745 2,058
CORN 1,614,406 1,538,042 1,471,882 33,957,191 25,917,446
FLAXSEED 48 24 0 384 24
MIXED 0 0 0 122 73
OATS 0 0 0 647 3,994
RYE 0 0 0 0 72
SORGHUM 22,372 3,405 211,326 1,579,587 4,041,143
SOYBEANS 793,250 827,306 514,747 40,730,524 37,082,586
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 4,109
WHEAT 435,644 485,068 569,147 17,289,905 14,853,185
Total 2,866,038 2,853,845 2,767,224 93,568,105 81,904,690

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed less than expected planting intentions by farmers. USDA sid farmers intended to plant 43.350 million acres of all Wheat, down from trade expectations of 46.392 million acres and plantings last year of 46.079 million acres. Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature but rains in the forecast for the Great Plains from Nebraska to the north this weekend according to one model. The other model has more general rains for all parts of the Great Plains. The coverage of the new system does not look very impressive. It is very dry in both areas although Kansas got a minimal amount of rain last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important. The trade is also worried about the potential for tariffs to be imposed in early April and the counter tariffs that would come back to US agriculture. \
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 524, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 553, 563, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 546, 542, and 536 May, with resistance at 583, 598, and 604 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 576, 570, and 564 May, and resistance is at 600, 610, and 626 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mixed yesterday, with the trade reacting to less than expected stocks but higher than expected intended area planted from USDA. It estimated Rice planting intentions at 2.9 million acres, from trade expectations near 3.7 million and about unchanged from last year. There was more concern about the tariffs scheduled to be imposed in early April. Prices remain cheap, but could develop into a trading range, and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1325, 1318 and 1306 May and resistance is at 1365, 1393, and 1416 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed yesterday, with nearby prices a little higher and new crop prices unchanged to lower as traders reacted to USDA stocks in all positions report and planting intentions report. USDA estimated stocks at 8.151 billion bushels, below average trade estimates, and planting intentions at 95.436 million acres, above average trade estimates. There was renewed talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting in early April when the reciprocal tariffs will be announced. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had light precipitation lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 346, 342, and 333 May, and resistance is at 362, 365, and 377 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower yesterday in response to the USDA stocks and planting intentions estimates. USDA estimated the quarterly stocks at 1.910 billion bushels, a little above the trade estimates and above last year. Planting intentions were estimated at 83.495 million acres, b3elow trade estimates and much below last year. Futures had traded higher in the previous sessions in anticipation of the repot and were able to sell off when the report did not really show big surprises. There was also increasing talk of new tariffs coming in early April and the damage they could do to US agriculture. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The Brazil Soybeans harvest is now estimated to be more than 80% complete.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed Support is at 998, 990 and 980 May, and resistance is at 1041, 1051, and 1055 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 290.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 304.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4390, 4270, and 4220 May, with resistance at 4540, 4600, and 4700 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week after moving sharply lower early as the market reversed on ideas that prices are a little too cheap. The market was closed today. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher again yesterday and continued to move away from the extreme lows set when China imposed tariffs on Canola and products a couple of weeks ago. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed in early April.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 600.00, 590.00, and 587.00 May, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 652.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4220, 4140, and 4070 June, with resistance at 4500, 4550, and 4600 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 204,076 lots, or 7.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 3,906 3,922 3,875 3,887 3,909 3,898 -11 129,825 177,033
Jul-25 3,936 3,949 3,904 3,913 3,936 3,923 -13 36,175 99,943
Sep-25 3,960 3,976 3,929 3,937 3,959 3,949 -10 33,147 73,767
Nov-25 3,943 3,952 3,916 3,920 3,933 3,930 -3 2,887 34,861
Jan-26 3,953 3,961 3,927 3,929 3,943 3,940 -3 1,327 5,805
Mar-26 3,963 3,972 3,937 3,940 3,947 3,948 1 715 1,729
Corn
Turnover: 623,838 lots, or 1.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,251 2,260 2,245 2,254 2,250 2,252 2 351,521 1,083,673
Jul-25 2,290 2,300 2,285 2,295 2,290 2,292 2 164,786 792,068
Sep-25 2,306 2,321 2,306 2,316 2,306 2,313 7 63,480 235,613
Nov-25 2,245 2,262 2,245 2,259 2,246 2,254 8 28,715 150,662
Jan-26 2,234 2,244 2,232 2,240 2,237 2,238 1 5,332 17,680
Mar-26 2,244 2,252 2,239 2,249 2,246 2,246 0 10,004 9,566
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,398,122 lots, or 69.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,851 2,852 2,790 2,804 2,830 2,816 -14 1,250,988 1,297,118
Jul-25 2,842 2,848 2,793 2,814 2,826 2,820 -6 125,313 410,843
Aug-25 2,980 2,980 2,928 2,941 2,957 2,952 -5 18,410 160,481
Sep-25 2,985 2,991 2,938 2,951 2,966 2,961 -5 865,877 1,843,857
Nov-25 3,011 3,016 2,965 2,978 2,991 2,990 -1 35,906 237,827
Dec-25 2,997 3,004 2,959 2,974 2,978 2,980 2 6,673 83,774
Jan-26 2,978 2,980 2,934 2,950 2,956 2,955 -1 84,506 251,842
Mar-26 2,858 2,865 2,830 2,833 2,836 2,841 5 10,449 43,367
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,087,856 lots, or 9.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 – – – 9,366 9,366 9,366 0 0 12
May-25 9,084 9,192 9,052 9,146 9,076 9,118 42 920,977 430,657
Jun-25 8,796 8,888 8,780 8,846 8,784 8,834 50 3,028 8,159
Jul-25 8,664 8,728 8,644 8,696 8,632 8,690 58 1,439 2,288
Aug-25 8,542 8,602 8,534 8,582 8,520 8,572 52 137 687
Sep-25 8,484 8,532 8,462 8,502 8,454 8,496 42 158,499 209,250
Oct-25 8,446 8,474 8,432 8,456 8,428 8,456 28 64 980
Nov-25 8,392 8,446 8,392 8,442 8,386 8,438 52 28 611
Dec-25 8,396 8,408 8,396 8,408 8,354 8,408 54 10 193
Jan-26 8,370 8,428 8,360 8,398 8,348 8,394 46 3,637 21,091
Feb-26 8,388 8,396 8,370 8,396 8,342 8,382 40 16 828
Mar-26 8,358 8,394 8,358 8,386 8,340 8,368 28 21 40
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 537,743 lots, or 4.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,988 7,988 7,890 7,896 7,968 7,934 -34 335,583 348,307
Jul-25 7,904 7,904 7,822 7,842 7,880 7,860 -20 3,808 14,094
Aug-25 7,948 7,958 7,870 7,894 7,928 7,912 -16 1,297 5,380
Sep-25 7,948 7,950 7,862 7,888 7,926 7,906 -20 188,498 433,225
Nov-25 7,956 7,960 7,900 7,908 7,926 7,926 0 192 1,812
Dec-25 7,930 7,930 7,890 7,890 7,906 7,906 0 9 106
Jan-26 7,862 7,880 7,800 7,820 7,856 7,838 -18 8,341 24,070
Mar-26 7,806 7,806 7,780 7,786 7,808 7,792 -16 15 108
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322