Weekly Ag Markets Update – 03/17/2025

Wheat: The markets closed a little higher last week on stronger weekly export sales and as reaction passed to news of tariffs being imposed on Europe and Europe retaliating by slapping tariffs on US oilseeds and grains.  An increase in US ending stocks estimates in the WASDE reports released on Tuesday were caused by a drop in export demand and an increase in imports.  World data showed lower ending stocks as production has been dropping and supplies are being consumed   There are now fears that the US is entering a recession caused almost completely by the economic uncertainty of the policies of the Trump administration and consumer confidence is down.  Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy.  This could be a supportive factor, but overall demand has been weak so he lack of rain hurting production potential is less of an issue for the trade.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn: Corn closed lower last week despite stronger weekly export sales and on news that the US had imposed tariffs on Chinese and European steel and aluminum and that Europe had retaliated by placing tariffs on US agricultural goods passed by.  The overall market fundamentals are still turning bearish, but short term rallies are still possible.  The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying was in anticipation of the new presidential regime.  President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed as of Tuesday on goods and services and some buyers may have made purchases already to avoid the potential for the tariff later.  The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time.  Oats were a little lower on some long liquidation after import tariffs were imposed on imports from Canada on Tuesday and seem to be holding so far.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower last week, and Soybean Meal closed higher after a week of stronger than expected weekly export sales and in response to news that the US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China and Europe and Europe returned the favor by slapping tariffs on US agricultural goods.  Alcoholic beverages were also tariffed by both Europe and the US.  South American production looks strong.  Futures were hit hard in part on the Trump tariffs and in part response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week.  The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand, especially from China and Canada.  Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand.  The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country.  The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 65% done.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice: Rice closed higher last week in quiet trading that concluded the week after a big up move early in the week.  The WASDE domestic data from USDA showed an increase of 1.0 million cwt in Long grain ending stocks but a decrease of 1.0 million cwt for Medium and Short Grain ending stocks.  World data showed a slight decrease in ending stocks levels.  The average farm price for the US was a little higher.  Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market.  Prices remain cheap and could threaten planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now.  Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher.  Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil closed higher on price action in Chicago and Dalian that caused speculative buying in Malaysia and despite talk of less than expected export demand last week as reported by the private surveyors.  There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things.  Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support.  Chart trends are turning up.  Canola was sharply lower last week on news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products.  The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses on report of moderations by the US on the tariff schedule.  The China news was devastating as China is a major importer of Canola and the products.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton: Cotton was higher last week in recovery trading.  Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation.  China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working.  The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft mainly due to the tariffs.  There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed lower last week and at new lows for the move despite narrowly mixed US production data from USDA.  Florida production was a little higher, but US total production was a little less.  Reports that tariffs on Mexico could be eased and that could allow for more imports as Mexico has rescinded threats to put tariffs on its imports and exports.  Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts.  The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little looser.  The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York closed a little lower and London closed a little higher in consolidation trading as doubts about the production in Brazil and the lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue.  The futures market has become very choppy.  Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.  Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain.  The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly.  Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue.  The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London were lower last week despite reports that the cash market is firming due to reduced production potential in major world producers.  Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are around.  Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.  Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.  Indian and Thai mills are expecting smaller crops of cane.  Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period.  Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa: New York and London closed higher last week on continued reports on firming cash prices in the world market.  Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year.  Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far.  There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening.  Chart trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts.  Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops.  It has been very dry in West Africa lately.  Overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322