Softs Report 03/13/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on follow through buying in response to the WASDE reports that showed no changes to the US data but reduced average farm prices. World data showed slight increases in supply and demand and a slight decrease in ending stocks levels. The US Dollar and Crude Oil futures were higher. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft mainly due to the tariffs. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.90, 62.80, and 60.00 May, with resistance of 67.10, 67.60 and 68.20 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again and at new lows for the move again yesterday and despite narrowly mixed US production data from USDA. Florida production was a little higher, but US total production was a little less. Reports that tariffs on Mexico could be eased and that could allow for more imports as Mexico has rescinded threats to put tariffs on its imports and exports. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little looser. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 256.00, 244.00, and 232.00 May, with resistance at 302.00, 322.00, and 328.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday as doubts about the production in Brazil and the lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue. The futures market has become very choppy lately. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 348.91 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 378.00, 366.00, and 361.00 May, and resistance is at 402.00, 418.00 and 424.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5280, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower again yesterday on what was reported to be speculative long liquidation despite reports that the cash market is firming due to reduced production potential in major world producers. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are around. Traders are worried about more Mexican Sugar making it into the world market due to the potential for tariffs from the US. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather. Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting smaller crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1780 May and resistance is at 1910, 1940, and 2000 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 510.00, 501.00, and 497.00 May, with resistance at 540.00, 550.00, and 553.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. Ideas are that a strong new crop is expected and the ICCO forecast a . Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening. Chart trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. Overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7680, 6670, and 6570 May, with resistance at 8780, 9180, and 9140 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 6090, 5600, and 5290 May, with resistance at 7050, 7400, and 7620 May.

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