Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., JOLT’s Job Openings & JOLT’s Job Quits at 9:00 A.M., 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand, WASDE Report, and EIA Short Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
As the middle of March approaches and temperatures warm, Midwest farmers are becoming anxious to start early fieldwork. It’s still early, but soil temperatures are gradually warming. Soil temperatures at Peoria, IL, which have been at or above average since the start of the month. The latest forecast projects a warming trend this week, with Peoria soil temperatures to surpass 50 degrees Fahrenheit by the weekend, before cooling off next week. The dryer and warmer trend should allow for spring tillage and fertilizer applications to get underway, with the potential for early soybean planting in the last half of the month. Initial corn planting will hold of until mid-April if normal seasonal trends persists. So far, late winter/early spring temperatures will be seasonally mild aiding field preparation.
South American Weather Pattern Discussion
South American Forecast Wetter in Northern Brazil; Dry in Mato Grosso do Sul/Parana; Model Agreement Improves:
The South American forecast is viewed as broadly improved as needed rainfall persists in Mato Grosso and returns to Goias in the 6-15 day period. Ag Resources (ARC) notes Mato Grosso & Goias combined for 50-52% of total Brazilian safrinha corn area. Abundant rainfall of 2-4” is projected there March 16-24. Needed dryness blankets Argentina into late month. The second Argentine corn harvest accelerates in the second half of March. However, there remains concern over the coverage of rainfall in Brazil given every bushel is needed this summer. Brazil’s safrinha corn belt, Parana, Sao Paulo, and much of Mato Grosso do Sul face soil moisture loss over the next two weeks. A wet north/dry south pattern is features after this week, and recall the intensity of rainfall in Brazil erodes seasonally after March. Mato Grosso do Sul & Parana have seen little/no rainfall since Feb 26th. Some rain falls there but more is needed.
Central US Weather Update
Soil Moisture Recharged in N Plains, E Midwest; Plains Forecast Stays Arid into Late March:
Central US weather concerns remain confined to the Southern & Central Plains, where moisture deficits are set to rise into March 25th. North America’s precipitation pattern throughout the period remains stagnant. Rain events are forecasted across the Dakotas, MN, TN, KY, and eastern Midwest. Additional heavy rain is forecast across the Delta/Southeast in the 8-14 day period. Net jumps in soil moisture across large swaths of the US Corn Belt in the next two weeks. Net drying accelerates across the US Plains as high temperatures in TX, OK, and KS reach into the 60’s and 70’s on a sustained basis – todays temps were in the low 70’s. This becomes an issue because regular rain fails to arrive prior to early April. Note that the TX/OK panhandles, most of KS, and southern NE have seen just 50% of normal precipitation in the last 60 days.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Rallies for Fourth Day on US Export Demand:
CBOT corn futures ended higher, but without conviction. Improved rainfall across N Brazil is noted after March 17th. However, it’s difficult to be bearish of corn demand amid continued ethanol exports and as US export disappearance that won’t peak for another 30-45 days. US corn export shipments for the week ending March 6th totaled 72 Mil Bu, a season high and the largest since May 2021. The seasonal evolution physical disappearance started in September and peaked in October. Disappearance started again on an upward trend in January and continues in 2025. USDA is expected to cut 24/25 US corn end stocks by 25 Mil Bu in todays USDA/WASDE reports via strong ethanol grind due to active US ethanol exports. ARC’s strategy remains to use near-term rallies to manage forward downside risk. Seasonal price trends are positive for another 4-6 weeks. Ideal Brazilian weather is needed, and Brazil’s surplus won’t be available until July. But assuming normal Midwest weather, US end stocks swell to 2.0-2.2 Bil Bu. Nearby, we are bullish of corn on breaks, but without US yield loss the risk is December CBOT at $3.70-$3.90 at harvest. Be prepared tp add to forward sales in the next two months. Dec corn sales should be considered between $4.60-$4.75.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
WASDE & Weather on Today’s Radar. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/11/2025
We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., JOLT’s Job Openings & JOLT’s Job Quits at 9:00 A.M., 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand, WASDE Report, and EIA Short Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
As the middle of March approaches and temperatures warm, Midwest farmers are becoming anxious to start early fieldwork. It’s still early, but soil temperatures are gradually warming. Soil temperatures at Peoria, IL, which have been at or above average since the start of the month. The latest forecast projects a warming trend this week, with Peoria soil temperatures to surpass 50 degrees Fahrenheit by the weekend, before cooling off next week. The dryer and warmer trend should allow for spring tillage and fertilizer applications to get underway, with the potential for early soybean planting in the last half of the month. Initial corn planting will hold of until mid-April if normal seasonal trends persists. So far, late winter/early spring temperatures will be seasonally mild aiding field preparation.
South American Weather Pattern Discussion
South American Forecast Wetter in Northern Brazil; Dry in Mato Grosso do Sul/Parana; Model Agreement Improves:
The South American forecast is viewed as broadly improved as needed rainfall persists in Mato Grosso and returns to Goias in the 6-15 day period. Ag Resources (ARC) notes Mato Grosso & Goias combined for 50-52% of total Brazilian safrinha corn area. Abundant rainfall of 2-4” is projected there March 16-24. Needed dryness blankets Argentina into late month. The second Argentine corn harvest accelerates in the second half of March. However, there remains concern over the coverage of rainfall in Brazil given every bushel is needed this summer. Brazil’s safrinha corn belt, Parana, Sao Paulo, and much of Mato Grosso do Sul face soil moisture loss over the next two weeks. A wet north/dry south pattern is features after this week, and recall the intensity of rainfall in Brazil erodes seasonally after March. Mato Grosso do Sul & Parana have seen little/no rainfall since Feb 26th. Some rain falls there but more is needed.
Central US Weather Update
Soil Moisture Recharged in N Plains, E Midwest; Plains Forecast Stays Arid into Late March:
Central US weather concerns remain confined to the Southern & Central Plains, where moisture deficits are set to rise into March 25th. North America’s precipitation pattern throughout the period remains stagnant. Rain events are forecasted across the Dakotas, MN, TN, KY, and eastern Midwest. Additional heavy rain is forecast across the Delta/Southeast in the 8-14 day period. Net jumps in soil moisture across large swaths of the US Corn Belt in the next two weeks. Net drying accelerates across the US Plains as high temperatures in TX, OK, and KS reach into the 60’s and 70’s on a sustained basis – todays temps were in the low 70’s. This becomes an issue because regular rain fails to arrive prior to early April. Note that the TX/OK panhandles, most of KS, and southern NE have seen just 50% of normal precipitation in the last 60 days.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Rallies for Fourth Day on US Export Demand:
CBOT corn futures ended higher, but without conviction. Improved rainfall across N Brazil is noted after March 17th. However, it’s difficult to be bearish of corn demand amid continued ethanol exports and as US export disappearance that won’t peak for another 30-45 days. US corn export shipments for the week ending March 6th totaled 72 Mil Bu, a season high and the largest since May 2021. The seasonal evolution physical disappearance started in September and peaked in October. Disappearance started again on an upward trend in January and continues in 2025. USDA is expected to cut 24/25 US corn end stocks by 25 Mil Bu in todays USDA/WASDE reports via strong ethanol grind due to active US ethanol exports. ARC’s strategy remains to use near-term rallies to manage forward downside risk. Seasonal price trends are positive for another 4-6 weeks. Ideal Brazilian weather is needed, and Brazil’s surplus won’t be available until July. But assuming normal Midwest weather, US end stocks swell to 2.0-2.2 Bil Bu. Nearby, we are bullish of corn on breaks, but without US yield loss the risk is December CBOT at $3.70-$3.90 at harvest. Be prepared tp add to forward sales in the next two months. Dec corn sales should be considered between $4.60-$4.75.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn