Softs Report 03/06/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on some short covering and perhaps some commercial buying as the tariffs on China and others that could kill demand were announced on Tuesday. The US Dollar was lower, and Crude Oil futures were weaker. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China yesterday, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft mainly due to the tariffs. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year. A short term bounce is possible now but longer term a price recovery is not expected.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 62.00, 60.80, and 59.60 May, with resistance of 65.30, 66.60 and 67.00 May.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 6
For the week ended Feb 27, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 241.5 105.6 9851.7 10529.4 5009.6 799.5
pima cotton 10.9 0.0 323.3 247.5 96.3 1.0

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday as reports of dry weather in Florida and in Mexico continue and demand remains good. Chart trends are mixed to up on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains very tight as USDA maintained its Florida production estimate at 12 million boxes and estimated US production at 60.3 million boxes from 60.6 million in its previous estimate. The lack of lower production goes against ideas of declining demand and even if demand is holding well. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now, but cold weather for Florida this week should be monitored in case damage becomes possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 291.00, 280.00, and 268.00 May, with resistance at 322.00, 328.00, and 341.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London was mixed yesterday on doubts about the production in Brazil and the lack of offers from Brazil. There are isolated showers in Brazil central areas now, but hot and dry weather is in the forecast. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year, an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle, while dry weather last year could also reduce the size of the 2025/26 harvest.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 364.20 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 402.00, 392.00, and 378.00 May, and resistance is at 424.00, 430.00 and 4236.00 May. Trends in London are up. Support is at 5420, 5280, and 5230 May, with resistance at 5740, 5950, and 6040 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday on what was called commercial short covering. Ideas of increasing Brazil and Asian production are keeping prices low overall. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have improved production potential. Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1640 May and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1800 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 510.00, 501.00, and 497.00 May, with resistance at 540.00, 550.00, and 553.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday despite industry buying. Lindt reported organic growth of 7% to support the buying interest. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening. Chart trends are tuning up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. Overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 7680, 6670, and 6570 May, with resistance at 8780, 9180, and 9140 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 6090, 5600, and 5290 May, with resistance at 7050, 7400, and 7620 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322