Trump’s Energy Doctrine. The Energy Report 02/24/2025

Wake me up when the emergency is over.  The Trump energy doctrine is in full force impacting not only oil prices but reducing political risk premium at the same time. President Trump is  getting ready to power the future of the US economy by calling in for every power plant in the US to raise their capacity by 10-15% for electricity to meet the growing energy needs to expand artificial intelligence across the United States. Trump’s Energy doctrine is moving at lightening speed as even his critics are starting to admit that his policies could have a historic positive impact for US manufacturing and gross domestic product with the possibility of reducing inflation by reducing government waste, fraud and corruption.

Decisive action with efforts to end the Russian Ukraine war as well as sending a signal to Iraq to settle their dispute with Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region as they get ready to ramp up maximum pressure on Iran. Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine should happen a lot quicker than people thought. President Trump stated over the weekend that the US is close to a deal with Ukraine, seeking rare earth minerals or oil to recoup aid money. There was outrage when president Donald Trump called Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky a dictator but now this week it’s possible that he is willing to step down.

Reuters reported that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that he was willing to step down if it meant peace for his country. Reuters wrote that U.S. President Donald Trump has initiated talks with Russia without inviting Ukraine or the European Union to the table. A senior Russian diplomat said Russian and U.S. teams plan to meet for further discussions this week. Europe seems to be stunned the efficiency that Donald Trump is having. In fact according to Reuters, European Union leaders will meet for an extraordinary summit on March 6 to discuss additional support for Ukraine and European security guarantees.

Perhaps taking a cue from conservatives, the German elections in Europe is starting to diversify its energy imports to reduce its dependence on Russia. That should be a positive for the United States of America. The US will be one of the major exporters of oil products and LNG. Reuters reported that NATO is planning to build a pipeline system from Germany to Poland and the Czech Republic to ensure a rapid supply of jet fuel for fighter aircraft in the event of a war with Russia, weekly German magazine Der Spiegel reported. The existing Cold War-era pipeline system of the military alliance currently ends in western Germany.

Der Spiegel cited an internal memo from the Bundeswehr – Germany’s armed forces – as stating that there are, “significant problems in the sustainable fuel supply for forces that would need to be deployed to the eastern border in case of emergency”. Reuters also reported that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is piling pressure on Iraq to allow Kurdish oil exports to start or face sanctions alongside Iran, eight sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. An advisor to the Iraqi prime minister denied in a statement there had been a threat of sanctions or pressure on the government during its communications with the U.S. administration. A speedy resumption of exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region would help to offset a potential fall in Iranian oil exports, which Washington has pledged to cut to zero as part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.

Reuters reported that NATO is planning to build a pipeline system from Germany to Poland and the Czech Republic to ensure a rapid supply of jet fuel for fighter aircraft in the event of a war with Russia, weekly German magazine Der Spiegel reported. The existing Cold War-era pipeline system of the military alliance currently ends in western Germany. Der Spiegel cited an internal memo from the Bundeswehr – Germany’s armed forces – as stating that there are “significant problems in the sustainable fuel supply for forces that would need to be deployed to the eastern border in case of emergency”.

Prices dipped last week on rumors of a new outbreak of COVID in a potential new strain. Those reports have not been confirmed, and the market is starting to come back. Oil prices dipped below 70 on the opening yesterday and they’re trying to build the base off of the lower end of the trading range. We anticipate range trading. Please ensure you obtain the trade level to maximize the potential benefits from this situation.

Natural gas prices are dipping on a warmup in the United States, but the question is, will it stay warm long enough to reverse the trajectory of natural gas which had a major breakup on the technical side of the market. Celsius Energy reported that natural gas inventories fell below 1800 billion cubic feet last week, a first since May 19, 2022. Storage is 255 billion cubic feet below the five-year average and 590 billion cubic feet lower than a year ago.

EBW Analytics reported that the March contract spiked to as high as $4.476/MMBtu last week—a full $1.00/MMBtu above the 20-day moving average—as an Arctic blast sent Henry Hub spot prices to $7.79/MMBtu amid soaring demand, 6 Bcf/d of production freeze-offs, and record LNG exports. While the coldest January-February period in a decade has reset the 2025 natural gas market outlook higher, a bearish weekend weather shift may prompt near-term softening this week as weather warms, production rebounds, and the March contract approaches expiration.

Fox Weather reported that, “We’re quickly approaching the start of meteorological spring, and right on cue, forecasters are tracking a major pattern change that will usher in warmer temperatures for most of the U.S. during the week ahead. And let’s face it – we deserve a break from the bitter cold. The nation has been blasted by rounds of frigid arctic air, which has plummeted temperatures to near-freezing as far south as Florida and the Gulf Coast. Winter storms have also brought snow to places that don’t usually see the flakes fly.

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