Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final, GDP Price Index QoQ Final, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final, Corporate Profits QoQ Final, GDP Sales QoQ Final, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ Final, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, Philly Fed Prices Paid,and Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final at 7:30 AQ.M., Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and CB Leading Index MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index & Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30 Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 5-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The Census Bureau reported that Building Permits in November jumped 6.3% from October to a 9-month high of 1.505 million to mark the largest 1-month increase since February 2023.Compared to a year ago, new permits were 3% larger, which was the largest year-over-year increase since March. Single-family home starts rose by an annualized rate of o.!% to 972,000, while permits for buildings with 5 or more units jumped by 22.1% to 481,000. This offset a 3.7% decline in buildings with 2-4 units. On the other hand, housing starts moved in the other direction and went down 1.8% from October to 14.6% less than a year ago at 1.289 million. This was the lowest housing starts figure since July and the 2nd lowest since June 2020. Starts with 5 units or more fell 24% 264,000, offsetting a 6.4% increase for single-family homes that rose to 1.011 million.
South American Weather Outlook Has Not Changed
March CBOT Corn Seeks 50-Day Moving Average at $4.34; US dollar Soars After Rate Cut; World Futures Push Lower:
World corn markets ended sharply lower on Wednesday as the complex actively works to shift 2025 Northern Hemisphere seedings from soybeans to other crops. The loss of Midwest winter wheat acres adds to the potential 2025 corn planted area. A shift of 2-3 Milfrom soy/wheat to corn allows US end stocks in 2025/2026 to swell to 2.2-2.5 Bil Bu – at which point CBOT corn above $4.50 is rich. South American weather is key, but it’s the forward rate of US disappearance that is a concern. Currency wise, the Brazilian real scored a fresh all-time low at 6.26:1. Spot CBOT corn valued in reais is now up 19% year-over-year while futures are down, and Ag Resources (ARC’s) contacts suggest safrinha area will be maximized in Feb/Mar as margins return. Normal market signals will be disrupted by currency dynamics. It’s imperative to sell old and new crop above $4.40 March/December futures. ARC believes to hedge additional 2025 production prior to Feb 1st to get 50%. The close below $4.38 March, opens short-term downside potential to $4.20-$4.25. Ag Resources sees March corn trading in a range of $4.10-$4.50 through Q1 2025.
Contact me with any questions and Have A Great Trading Day!
Global Weak Currencies + China’s + US Failed Stimulus & Tariffs. The Corn & Ethanol Report 12/19/2024
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final, GDP Price Index QoQ Final, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final, Corporate Profits QoQ Final, GDP Sales QoQ Final, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ Final, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, Philly Fed Prices Paid,and Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final at 7:30 AQ.M., Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and CB Leading Index MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index & Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30 Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 5-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The Census Bureau reported that Building Permits in November jumped 6.3% from October to a 9-month high of 1.505 million to mark the largest 1-month increase since February 2023.Compared to a year ago, new permits were 3% larger, which was the largest year-over-year increase since March. Single-family home starts rose by an annualized rate of o.!% to 972,000, while permits for buildings with 5 or more units jumped by 22.1% to 481,000. This offset a 3.7% decline in buildings with 2-4 units. On the other hand, housing starts moved in the other direction and went down 1.8% from October to 14.6% less than a year ago at 1.289 million. This was the lowest housing starts figure since July and the 2nd lowest since June 2020. Starts with 5 units or more fell 24% 264,000, offsetting a 6.4% increase for single-family homes that rose to 1.011 million.
South American Weather Outlook Has Not Changed
March CBOT Corn Seeks 50-Day Moving Average at $4.34; US dollar Soars After Rate Cut; World Futures Push Lower:
World corn markets ended sharply lower on Wednesday as the complex actively works to shift 2025 Northern Hemisphere seedings from soybeans to other crops. The loss of Midwest winter wheat acres adds to the potential 2025 corn planted area. A shift of 2-3 Milfrom soy/wheat to corn allows US end stocks in 2025/2026 to swell to 2.2-2.5 Bil Bu – at which point CBOT corn above $4.50 is rich. South American weather is key, but it’s the forward rate of US disappearance that is a concern. Currency wise, the Brazilian real scored a fresh all-time low at 6.26:1. Spot CBOT corn valued in reais is now up 19% year-over-year while futures are down, and Ag Resources (ARC’s) contacts suggest safrinha area will be maximized in Feb/Mar as margins return. Normal market signals will be disrupted by currency dynamics. It’s imperative to sell old and new crop above $4.40 March/December futures. ARC believes to hedge additional 2025 production prior to Feb 1st to get 50%. The close below $4.38 March, opens short-term downside potential to $4.20-$4.25. Ag Resources sees March corn trading in a range of $4.10-$4.50 through Q1 2025.
Contact me with any questions and Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn