Softs Report 12/19/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday and the trends are down. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 67.90, 66.40, and 65.80 March, with resistance of 69.10, 69.90 and 70.40 March.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 19

For the week ended Dec 12, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 194.9 6.9 7206.8 8122.5 4795.4 438.5
pima cotton 0.5 0.0 236.2 183.3 94.0 0.0

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and the chart trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts. The short term supply scenario remains very tight. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 516.00, 505.00, and 484.00 January, with resistance at 544.00, 550.00, and 556.00 January

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower yesterday as tight Arabica availability went against increasing availability of Robusta with the harvest of Robusta continuing. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. There are reports from Brazil that producers have already sold a lot of Coffee and are holding back on selling more even with good demand. Offers from Vietnam are increasing now as the harvest has been expanding. There are reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 311.46 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 335.00, 347.00 and 353.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5060, 4910, and 4770 January, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed moderately lower yesterday. The current Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts in both markets. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1850 March and resistance is at 2070, 2140, and 2200 March. Trends in London are down. Support is at 504.00, 495.00, and 490.00 March, with resistance at 526.00, 538.00, and 545.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and at new highs for the move on weather and production related buying. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind fell 9.9% year on year in October but rose 16.1% in November.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 11940, 10660, and 10250 March, with resistance at 13000, 13600, and 14200 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 9500, 8960, and 8500 March, with resistance at 10200, 10500, and 10700 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322