Grains Report 12/17/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 16
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Dec 16, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 12, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/12/2024 12/05/2024 12/14/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 1,298 0 7,210 1,614
CORN 1,129,834 1,057,972 959,925 13,300,752 10,153,352
FLAXSEED 24 0 0 264 0
MIXED 0 0 0 49 24
OATS 0 0 0 148 3,794
RYE 0 0 0 0 72
SORGHUM 147,320 73,790 269,751 1,306,778 1,695,782
SOYBEANS 1,676,444 1,736,783 1,425,012 25,230,615 21,181,902
SUNFLOWER 0 0 144 0 4,109
WHEAT 298,075 247,954 284,792 11,536,703 8,914,762
Total 3,251,697 3,117,797 2,939,624 51,382,519 41,955,411
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were a little higher in all three markets. USDA showed poor export demand in the weekly reports. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 543, 540, and 534 March, with resistance at 560, 571, and 577 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 551, 544, and 535 March, with resistance at 577, 591, and 597 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 593, 586, and 585 March, and resistance is at 613, 625, and 634 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed near unchanged yesterday, and the holiday market seems to be underway. The trends are still mixed on the weekly charts but are turning down on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1486, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1544, and 1558 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday as buying surfaced near the recent lows. The US export demand was a little less last week in the weekly reports. Farmers were sellers along with speculators. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Oats were a little lower.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 170,400 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 436, 431, and 428 March, and resistance is at 448, 452, and 455 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 361, 350, and 339 March, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 376 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower and Soybean Meal was a little higher yesterday on talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans were often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead f any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Even so, supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons and Spain bought 187,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1003, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 284.00, 281.00, and 278.00 January, and resistance is at 294.00, 299.00, and 304.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4100, 4070, and 3960 January, with resistance at 4350, 4450, and 4640 January.

Alerts History
• 16 Dec 2024 11:00:00 AM – U.S. NOVEMBER SOYBEAN CRUSH 193.185 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 16 Dec 2024 11:00:00 AM – U.S. NOVEMBER SOYOIL STOCKS 1.084 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 16 Dec 2024 11:00:00 AM – NOPA REVISES OCTOBER CRUSH TO 199.943 MILLION BUSHELS, DOWN FROM 199.959 MILLION PREVIOUSLY

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on continued reports of weaker exports and Soybean Oil weakness. Demand from China has not been good, but demand from India has been seasonally strong. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Canola was lower with Chicago. The charts show that a low has been completed but that the rally off the lows has run out for now. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 596.00, 585.00, and 577.00 January, with resistance at 618.00, 626.00, and 633.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4640, 4540, and 4470 March, with resistance at 4840, 4930, and 5020 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1185.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 1157.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1077.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1030.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1190.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 1162.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1082.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1035.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1177.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1002.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 5,050.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 490.00 -09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4715)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 192,621 lots, or 7.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,800 3,804 3,766 3,786 3,813 3,785 -28 122,132 99,284
Mar-25 3,812 3,818 3,778 3,798 3,827 3,799 -28 8,677 37,057
May-25 3,826 3,826 3,786 3,807 3,827 3,805 -22 55,502 125,205
Jul-25 3,854 3,854 3,812 3,833 3,856 3,832 -24 2,702 9,507
Sep-25 3,874 3,882 3,840 3,859 3,883 3,860 -23 3,518 16,339
Nov-25 3,908 3,908 3,860 3,872 3,903 3,875 -28 90 214
Corn
Turnover: 844,081 lots, or 18.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,108 2,109 2,083 2,087 2,099 2,096 -3 271,212 366,386
Mar-25 2,129 2,133 2,112 2,115 2,124 2,119 -5 100,550 514,223
May-25 2,202 2,209 2,184 2,186 2,201 2,193 -8 435,508 857,952
Jul-25 2,237 2,243 2,219 2,221 2,234 2,226 -8 28,799 165,669
Sep-25 2,248 2,251 2,233 2,236 2,243 2,239 -4 6,048 46,100
Nov-25 2,229 2,230 2,218 2,220 2,226 2,223 -3 1,964 14,473
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,821,187 lots, or 48.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,865 2,876 2,830 2,848 2,878 2,848 -30 247,421 381,486
Mar-25 2,797 2,801 2,746 2,764 2,797 2,770 -27 72,372 348,545
May-25 2,652 2,655 2,608 2,614 2,638 2,625 -13 1,262,548 2,713,660
Jul-25 2,648 2,659 2,616 2,620 2,643 2,632 -11 20,017 238,804
Aug-25 2,805 2,805 2,765 2,770 2,789 2,779 -10 8,165 142,131
Sep-25 2,811 2,813 2,773 2,779 2,798 2,787 -11 164,436 727,918
Nov-25 2,835 2,841 2,799 2,802 2,826 2,815 -11 37,219 186,717
Dec-25 2,895 2,903 2,863 2,876 2,887 2,878 -9 9,009 4,402
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,336,074 lots, or 12.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,902 9,988 9,902 9,960 10,026 9,946 -80 202,125 192,539
Feb-25 9,848 9,878 9,772 9,810 9,918 9,820 -98 14,481 23,740
Mar-25 9,702 9,724 9,604 9,638 9,766 9,652 -114 6,784 13,796
Apr-25 9,476 9,492 9,362 9,406 9,540 9,422 -118 1,317 1,199
May-25 9,250 9,276 9,136 9,202 9,314 9,206 -108 1,089,468 446,302
Jun-25 9,038 9,062 8,944 9,018 9,120 9,006 -114 198 589
Jul-25 8,870 8,880 8,780 8,824 8,926 8,836 -90 148 479
Aug-25 8,700 8,706 8,630 8,630 8,800 8,678 -122 31 152
Sep-25 8,570 8,588 8,484 8,542 8,628 8,538 -90 21,366 38,081
Oct-25 8,416 8,444 8,370 8,430 8,490 8,412 -78 76 437
Nov-25 8,324 8,374 8,300 8,328 8,386 8,326 -60 65 165
Dec-25 8,282 8,282 8,232 8,244 8,338 8,258 -80 15 13
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 580,513 lots, or 4.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 8,004 8,048 7,956 7,996 8,026 7,996 -30 89,993 145,026
Mar-25 7,988 8,036 7,932 7,980 8,010 7,984 -26 3,973 21,288
May-25 7,888 7,940 7,834 7,894 7,912 7,886 -26 468,915 632,103
Jul-25 7,762 7,808 7,724 7,772 7,790 7,762 -28 1,114 6,070
Aug-25 7,790 7,836 7,764 7,798 7,830 7,790 -40 86 541
Sep-25 7,780 7,820 7,742 7,786 7,816 7,778 -38 16,382 94,290
Nov-25 7,772 7,788 7,740 7,776 7,782 7,770 -12 27 129
Dec-25 7,798 7,798 7,764 7,772 7,796 7,782 -14 23 24
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322