Grains Report 12/16/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec 17, 2024 141 Dec 13, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec 17, 2024 18 Dec 13, 2024
CORN December Dec 17, 2024 43 Dec 13, 2024
WHEAT December Dec 17, 2024 13 Dec 13, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower last week in all three markets after USDA showed poor export demand in the weekly reports. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 550, 543, and 540 March, with resistance at 561, 571, and 577 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 551, 544, and 535 March, with resistance at 577, 591, and 597 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 593, 586, and 585 March, and resistance is at 613, 625, and 634 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 503,050
: Positions :
: 64,007 159,220 147,427 109,452 87,579 149,905 72,972 470,791 467,198: 32,259 35,852
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 18,362) :
: 2,211 -1,362 10,561 4,598 7,148 1,470 2,265 18,840 18,612: -478 -250
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 31.7 29.3 21.8 17.4 29.8 14.5 93.6 92.9: 6.4 7.1
: Total Traders: 394 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 108 128 97 105 49 31 314 309:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 285,572
: Positions :
: 31,552 73,752 69,553 64,616 80,435 100,886 42,114 266,607 265,854: 18,966 19,719
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 12,149) :
: 3,992 -382 3,368 4,590 6,066 697 3,588 12,647 12,640: -498 -491
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.0 25.8 24.4 22.6 28.2 35.3 14.7 93.4 93.1: 6.6 6.9
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 59 62 69 65 38 22 195 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 83,886 :
: Positions :
: 41,753 19,651 3,279 0 249 9,624 40,686 7,424 5,370 809 4,286 :
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 :
: 2,180 3,638 170 -188 37 991 -101 951 -338 -701 609 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.8 23.4 3.9 0.0 0.3 11.5 48.5 8.9 6.4 1.0 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 122 :
: 50 33 9 0 . 8 24 8 12 6 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower last week and the holiday market seems to be underway. The trends are still mixed on the weekly charts but are turning down on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1486, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1544, and 1558 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,003 :
: Positions :
: 6,468 6,092 0 194 0 309 2,384 95 1,929 178 895 :
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 :
: -189 160 0 63 0 -10 -355 0 41 77 -3 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 58.8 55.4 0.0 1.8 0.0 2.8 21.7 0.9 17.5 1.6 8.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 25 17 0 . 0 . 11 . 13 5 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower last week after making new highs for the move. The US export demand was a little less in the weekly reports. Farmers were sellers along with speculators. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 436, 431, and 428 March, and resistance is at 448, 452, and 455 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 361, 350, and 339 March, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 376 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,008,681
: Positions :
: 260,922 229,354 523,291 600,850 940,147 456,952 111,273 1,842,017 1,804,065: 166,665 204,616
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 112,757) :
: 46,090 -16,026 29,024 -1,980 83,078 36,652 14,931 109,786 111,007: 2,971 1,750
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 11.4 26.1 29.9 46.8 22.7 5.5 91.7 89.8: 8.3 10.2
: Total Traders: 848 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 146 152 184 368 414 54 31 665 693:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower and the products were slightly higher last week on strong weekly and daily export sales. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans were often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead f any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Even so, supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1003, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 284.00, 281.00, and 278.00 January, and resistance is at 294.00, 299.00, and 304.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4100, 4070, and 3960 January, with resistance at 4350, 4450, and 4640 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,156,829
: Positions :
: 101,930 178,209 356,806 436,320 440,984 203,527 101,332 1,098,583 1,077,330: 58,247 79,499
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: -5,987) :
: 1,106 -10,020 1,451 -1,172 6,948 -7,701 -4,132 -6,316 -5,754: 329 -233
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 15.4 30.8 37.7 38.1 17.6 8.8 95.0 93.1: 5.0 6.9
: Total Traders: 582 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 118 153 178 222 216 45 30 490 484:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 630,002
: Positions :
: 83,171 97,765 126,836 224,530 339,563 160,042 39,127 594,579 603,291: 35,423 26,711
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 449) :
: 3,839 -10,767 1,317 -381 18,442 -5,474 -7,151 -699 1,841: 1,148 -1,391
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.2 15.5 20.1 35.6 53.9 25.4 6.2 94.4 95.8: 5.6 4.2
: Total Traders: 349 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 74 106 112 98 44 27 299 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 684,821
: Positions :
: 72,002 145,813 184,621 230,545 276,209 135,760 44,807 622,928 651,450: 61,893 33,371
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 15,666) :
: 3,434 -1,631 11,621 8,712 12,944 -8,310 -5,813 15,457 17,121: 209 -1,455
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 21.3 27.0 33.7 40.3 19.8 6.5 91.0 95.1: 9.0 4.9
: Total Traders: 361 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 83 105 129 114 38 23 300 278:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas that the price was too high to attract new demand. Soybean Oil demand has been very strong and has captured much of the new business from places like India. Futures were lower today on reports of weaker exports. Demand from China has not been good, but demand from India has been seasonally strong. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have improved so far this month. Canola was a little higher last week on reports of speculative profit taking on long positions taking the market from its highs set early in the week. The charts show that a low has been completed but that the rally off the lows has run out for now. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 596.00, 585.00, and 577.00 January, with resistance at 617.00, 626.00, and 633.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4640, 4540, and 4470 March, with resistance at 4840, 4930, and 5020 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 27,228 :
: Positions :
: 23,460 12,521 520 5,320 650 870 3,080 0 418 4,340 1,300 :
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 :
: 530 290 0 80 0 0 340 0 -50 -230 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 86.2 46.0 1.9 19.5 2.4 3.2 11.3 0.0 1.5 15.9 4.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 36 :
: 10 8 . 5 4 . . 0 . 11 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 285,011 :
: Positions :
: 208,629 99,505 11,248 9,073 2,868 10,146 117,586 24,910 11,763 15,189 13,125 :
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 :
: -10,803 -1,742 -925 -988 563 956 -7,673 -9,076 1,780 1,320 -4,506 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 73.2 34.9 3.9 3.2 1.0 3.6 41.3 8.7 4.1 5.3 4.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 305 :
: 74 60 6 . 4 18 63 27 76 48 64 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1200.00 — Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 1175.00 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1085.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1030.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1205.00 — Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 1180.00 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1090.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1035.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1180.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1010.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 5,100.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 499.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.449)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 187,204 lots, or 7.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,842 3,843 3,795 3,804 3,849 3,813 -36 118,662 109,355
Mar-25 3,856 3,858 3,812 3,818 3,856 3,827 -29 13,168 35,817
May-25 3,862 3,862 3,801 3,823 3,860 3,827 -33 50,838 114,150
Jul-25 3,883 3,883 3,831 3,854 3,891 3,856 -35 1,889 9,494
Sep-25 3,911 3,912 3,860 3,881 3,918 3,883 -35 2,560 15,858
Nov-25 3,920 3,920 3,890 3,900 3,934 3,903 -31 87 204
Corn
Turnover: 915,127 lots, or 19.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,104 2,113 2,085 2,102 2,110 2,099 -11 336,349 420,655
Mar-25 2,143 2,143 2,112 2,129 2,136 2,124 -12 144,518 518,162
May-25 2,214 2,214 2,188 2,205 2,206 2,201 -5 383,797 791,829
Jul-25 2,248 2,248 2,222 2,240 2,237 2,234 -3 40,043 161,872
Sep-25 2,252 2,253 2,233 2,248 2,247 2,243 -4 7,331 46,867
Nov-25 2,237 2,237 2,217 2,231 2,228 2,226 -2 3,089 14,282
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,005,493 lots, or 54.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,893 2,893 2,861 2,868 2,863 2,878 15 211,651 378,707
Mar-25 2,813 2,818 2,777 2,793 2,810 2,797 -13 108,030 347,373
May-25 2,643 2,655 2,620 2,651 2,636 2,638 2 1,403,209 2,587,847
Jul-25 2,641 2,660 2,629 2,657 2,638 2,643 5 35,172 236,337
Aug-25 2,792 2,802 2,775 2,801 2,779 2,789 10 13,286 141,366
Sep-25 2,800 2,810 2,784 2,810 2,789 2,798 9 177,004 699,721
Nov-25 2,823 2,840 2,811 2,840 2,815 2,826 11 40,949 176,969
Dec-25 2,863 2,911 2,856 2,899 2,815 2,887 72 16,192 2,627
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,448,926 lots, or 13.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 10,014 10,096 9,964 10,028 9,964 10,026 62 238,375 216,515
Feb-25 9,898 9,992 9,848 9,914 9,862 9,918 56 18,134 24,701
Mar-25 9,748 9,850 9,692 9,770 9,708 9,766 58 7,585 13,410
Apr-25 9,544 9,616 9,458 9,554 9,492 9,540 48 793 1,162
May-25 9,314 9,392 9,214 9,322 9,268 9,314 46 1,159,375 450,076
Jun-25 9,102 9,176 9,032 9,124 9,070 9,120 50 152 585
Jul-25 8,938 8,992 8,852 8,936 8,896 8,926 30 128 477
Aug-25 8,790 8,832 8,744 8,760 8,732 8,800 68 29 154
Sep-25 8,624 8,708 8,546 8,626 8,602 8,628 26 24,222 36,187
Oct-25 8,480 8,550 8,430 8,474 8,438 8,490 52 70 422
Nov-25 8,354 8,430 8,324 8,350 8,350 8,386 36 54 151
Dec-25 8,368 8,368 8,316 8,316 8,350 8,338 -12 9 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 589,348 lots, or 46.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 8,054 8,056 7,982 8,044 8,038 8,026 -12 64,791 152,283
Mar-25 8,014 8,050 7,966 8,020 7,998 8,010 12 7,964 21,279
May-25 7,934 7,954 7,862 7,928 7,934 7,912 -22 494,897 629,279
Jul-25 7,824 7,824 7,750 7,804 7,814 7,790 -24 1,026 5,839
Aug-25 7,860 7,860 7,794 7,844 7,854 7,830 -24 72 528
Sep-25 7,840 7,844 7,766 7,820 7,832 7,816 -16 20,562 92,394
Nov-25 7,802 7,816 7,762 7,812 7,820 7,782 -38 27 114
Dec-25 7,774 7,818 7,774 7,800 7,820 7,796 -24 9 5
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322