Softs Report 12/16/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and the trends are still turning down. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 68.40, 67.90, and 66.40 March, with resistance of 71.20, 71.90 and 72.40 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 266,878
: Positions :
: 32,589 71,325 62,586 73,740 98,847 83,248 20,374 252,164 253,132: 14,714 13,746
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,932) :
: 917 5,420 -1,624 854 -3,309 1,330 1,110 1,476 1,597: 455 334
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 26.7 23.5 27.6 37.0 31.2 7.6 94.5 94.8: 5.5 5.2
: Total Traders: 301 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 104 93 63 59 44 25 231 228:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and the chart trends are up on the daily charts but mixed on the weekly charts. USDA estimated all Oranges production at 2.48 million tons for the US and 12 million boxes. The estimates are down a lot from early forecasts and from the previous year. The short term supply scenario remains very tight. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now. Nielsen said that November retail Orange Juice sales were 24.68 million gallons, up about 3.0 million gallons from October.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 484.00, 480.00, and 470.00 January, with resistance at 516.00, 533.00, and 544.00 January

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,680 :
: Positions :
: 2,021 9,656 577 78 278 4,822 0 84 882 272 3,287 :
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 :
: 80 -210 -15 -53 30 84 0 81 -290 -17 48 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8 65.8 3.9 0.5 1.9 32.8 0.0 0.6 6.0 1.9 22.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 52 :
: 10 8 . . . 20 0 . 11 4 9 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York was lower last week after moving to new highs and London closed higher. It appears that New York made a reversal on Tuesday. There were reports that another large trade house has pegged top producer Brazil’s coming crop at 40 million bags, in contrast to Volcafe, which cut its Brazil arabica forecast by 11 million bags to 34.4 million. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. There are reports from Brazil that producers have already sold a lot of Coffee and are holding back on selling more even with good demand. Offers from Vietnam are increasing now as the harvest has been expanding. The chart trends are still up in both markets. There are reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 305.14 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 330.00, 335.00 and 347.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5060, 4910, and 4770 January, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 278,277
: Positions :
: 50,837 11,590 96,180 60,058 152,725 61,403 10,829 268,478 271,325: 9,799 6,952
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 21,750) :
: 440 237 18,053 2,512 3,113 299 -221 21,303 21,182: 447 568
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.3 4.2 34.6 21.6 54.9 22.1 3.9 96.5 97.5: 3.5 2.5
: Total Traders: 384 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 72 109 82 116 50 20 308 276:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week despite supportive production data from Brazil as the trade Had expected even lower production estimates. UNICA said that the second half of November crush was down 15% from the previous year at 20.4 million tons. Sugar production was 1.1 million tons, down 23%, and ethanol production was 1.2 billion liters, down 5%. Both markets are starting new moves lower. The current Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts in both markets. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2020, 1980, and 1920 March and resistance is at 2140, 2200, and 2240 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 524.00, 513.00, and 504.00 March, with resistance at 545.00, 551.00, and 564.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,078,053
: Positions :
: 113,979 131,508 240,624 381,633 609,320 266,348 40,958 1,002,585 1,022,409: 75,468 55,644
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 36,446) :
: 3,242 313 10,661 11,501 20,540 11,564 4,883 36,969 36,396: -522 50
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 12.2 22.3 35.4 56.5 24.7 3.8 93.0 94.8: 7.0 5.2
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 54 84 71 70 43 21 221 186:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and at new highs for the move on weather and production related buying. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind fell 9.9% year on year in October but rose 16.1% in November.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 10250, 10000, and 9790 March, with resistance at 11420, 11540, and 11660 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 8160, 7890, and 7640 March, with resistance at 9000, 9120, and 9350 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 183,179
: Positions :
: 35,956 13,683 51,637 60,394 103,733 22,501 8,076 170,487 177,128: 12,692 6,051
: :
: Changes from: December 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,290) :
: 1,046 -1,715 -114 999 3,659 -1,343 -980 588 851: 702 439
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.6 7.5 28.2 33.0 56.6 12.3 4.4 93.1 96.7: 6.9 3.3
: :
: Total Traders: 177 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 34 58 37 40 30 13 160 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322