Grains Report 12/12/2024

DJ Conab Keeps Outlook for Brazilian Crops Large — Market Talk
0929 ET – Brazilian agricultural agency Conab left its 2024/25 crop production outlook mostly unchanged, keeping the pressure on CBOT grain futures amid a looming flood of Brazilian competition. The agency estimates a total harvest of 322.4 million tons, 8.2% higher than the previous year. Soybean production is expected at 166.21 million tons, 12.5% higher than the previous crop, and corn is seen at 119.63 million tons, 3.4% more than the previous harvest. “The rains that have occurred so far are beneficial to crops in the main producing states,” says Conab president Edegar Pretto in a note, adding that record-high production continues to be expected. The agency’s forecast is largely unchanged from the one it produced in November. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 12
For the week ended Dec 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 290.2 0.0 15836.6 14534.4 4909.5 27.0
hrw 44.3 0.0 3676.2 2506.3 1019.5 0.0
srw 27.2 0.0 2505.7 4145.9 821.9 27.0
hrs 180.3 0.0 5203.6 4640.9 1667.3 0.0
white 35.4 0.0 4153.0 2913.5 1288.7 0.0
durum 3.0 0.0 298.0 327.9 112.0 0.0
corn 946.9 0.0 35138.1 27166.0 22571.1 848.0
soybeans 1173.8 0.0 37284.2 33285.7 13797.3 19.2
soymeal 176.3 0.0 7449.1 6640.6 4679.6 7.3
soyoil 63.8 0.0 480.2 28.3 388.0 0.0
upland cotton 153.0 3.3 7011.9 7975.9 4729.1 431.6
pima cotton 6.9 0.0 235.8 177.9 105.6 0.0
sorghum 6.3 0.0 1157.2 3665.5 298.4 0.0
barley 0.5 0.0 29.3 16.6 19.5 3.0
rice 44.7 0.0 1650.2 1657.5 555.4 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec 13, 2024 278 Dec 09, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec 13, 2024 401 Nov 22, 2024
CORN December Dec 13, 2024 172 Dec 05, 2024
OATS December Dec 13, 2024 1 Dec 11, 2024
WHEAT December Dec 13, 2024 5 Dec 11, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher again yesterday in all three markets in follow through buying to the USDA WASDE reports that showed increased export demand by 25 million bushels and a cut in ending stocks of the same amount. Wheat also rallied with strength in the Corn market. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady prices quoted in Russia and Argentina were around and helped keep the US market steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded about 4.0 million tons of production to feed instead of food. Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 553, 550, and 543 March, with resistance at 571, 577, and 584 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 551, 544, and 535 March, with resistance at 577, 591, and 597 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 593, 586, and 585 March, and resistance is at 613, 625, and 634 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower again yesterday in response to the USDA WASDE reports. The reports cut export demand for long grain and increased ending stocks by 2.0 million hundredweight and increased the export demand for medium and short grain by two million hundredweight and cut ending stocks for those grains by two million. The trends are still mixed on the charts. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1486, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1544, and 1558 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. USDA showed increased export and domestic demand and reduced ending stocks in its reports on Tuesday. The world data also showed reduced ending stocks. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 442, 436, and 431 March, and resistance is at 452, 455, and 488 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 348, 339, and 332 March, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 376 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in response to the WASDE reports released on Tuesday that showed an increase in export demand for Soybean Oil, but a cut in domestic consumption. Ending stocks for Soybean Oil were lower, but were unchanged for Soybeans. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be another detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans are often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 334,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1003, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 284.00, 281.00, and 278.00 January, and resistance is at 294.00, 299.00, and 304.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4100, 4070, and 3960 January, with resistance at 4350, 4450, and 4640 January.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on Indonesian plans to use more Palm Oil in its bio fuels blends. Demand from China has not been good, but demand from India has been seasonally strong. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was a little higher and the charts show that a low has been completed in recent days. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 596.00, 585.00, and 577.00 January, with resistance at 625.00, 633.00, and 643.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up Support is at 4800, 4740, and 4630 February, with resistance at 5020, 5080, and 5180 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.
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DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1245.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1195.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1095.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1045.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1250.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1200.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1100.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1050.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1220.00 -02.50 Unquoted –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1030.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,260.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 509.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.439)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 107,961 lots, or 4.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,848 3,860 3,833 3,853 3,847 3,845 -2 73,735 119,340
Mar-25 3,851 3,868 3,850 3,860 3,861 3,857 -4 5,536 33,495
May-25 3,863 3,877 3,861 3,868 3,874 3,868 -6 26,679 98,174
Jul-25 3,894 3,905 3,890 3,899 3,903 3,897 -6 748 9,047
Sep-25 3,922 3,933 3,917 3,925 3,929 3,925 -4 1,255 15,094
Nov-25 3,940 3,948 3,939 3,945 3,944 3,943 -1 8 135
Corn
Turnover: 648,380 lots, or 14.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,118 2,126 2,113 2,115 2,121 2,119 -2 332,769 503,360
Mar-25 2,150 2,155 2,143 2,145 2,151 2,147 -4 88,960 509,337
May-25 2,221 2,226 2,212 2,215 2,220 2,217 -3 196,201 687,354
Jul-25 2,252 2,257 2,242 2,246 2,252 2,247 -5 22,717 152,050
Sep-25 2,262 2,264 2,252 2,253 2,260 2,256 -4 5,955 45,765
Nov-25 2,239 2,240 2,232 2,233 2,238 2,235 -3 1,778 13,737
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,459,500 lots, or 39.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 – – – 2,802 2,802 2,802 0 8 8
Jan-25 2,841 2,859 2,832 2,842 2,849 2,846 -3 145,191 484,268
Mar-25 2,785 2,798 2,773 2,789 2,798 2,786 -12 35,307 330,661
May-25 2,646 2,660 2,636 2,646 2,662 2,647 -15 1,075,034 2,611,291
Jul-25 2,655 2,670 2,648 2,653 2,671 2,657 -14 25,962 232,662
Aug-25 2,781 2,799 2,773 2,787 2,796 2,789 -7 12,993 139,325
Sep-25 2,785 2,806 2,778 2,794 2,800 2,794 -6 142,728 664,640
Nov-25 2,811 2,828 2,800 2,817 2,819 2,815 -4 22,277 156,412
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,460,690 lots, or 13.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 10,500 10,500 10,220 10,226 10,268 10,320 52 36 990
Jan-25 9,932 10,000 9,858 9,932 9,994 9,936 -58 602,572 263,781
Feb-25 9,886 9,912 9,748 9,820 9,904 9,828 -76 27,048 23,935
Mar-25 9,726 9,758 9,570 9,660 9,746 9,658 -88 10,875 13,327
Apr-25 9,508 9,534 9,338 9,436 9,500 9,432 -68 1,145 1,127
May-25 9,258 9,312 9,102 9,216 9,282 9,216 -66 777,253 416,266
Jun-25 9,052 9,124 8,916 9,014 9,040 9,026 -14 214 567
Jul-25 8,902 8,954 8,736 8,844 8,860 8,870 10 290 431
Aug-25 8,704 8,824 8,622 8,674 8,676 8,750 74 52 142
Sep-25 8,572 8,704 8,450 8,560 8,564 8,586 22 40,967 36,295
Oct-25 8,420 8,560 8,344 8,424 8,430 8,470 40 92 420
Nov-25 8,350 8,470 8,228 8,314 8,330 8,362 32 146 153
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 629,063 lots, or 50.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 – – – 8,084 8,084 8,084 0 50 1,500
Jan-25 8,056 8,148 8,046 8,060 8,054 8,086 32 94,966 186,132
Mar-25 8,058 8,128 8,020 8,026 8,042 8,062 20 3,249 21,109
May-25 8,026 8,072 7,952 7,954 7,962 8,006 44 502,187 628,723
Jul-25 7,852 7,936 7,832 7,832 7,840 7,880 40 1,348 5,183
Aug-25 7,896 7,952 7,870 7,876 7,878 7,908 30 114 524
Sep-25 7,858 7,936 7,840 7,840 7,842 7,892 50 27,105 88,408
Nov-25 7,890 7,892 7,818 7,824 7,834 7,860 26 44 100
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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