Grains Report 12/11/2024

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2024-25 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Tuesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range November
Corn 1,738.0 1,887 1,800-1,938 1,938
Soybeans 470.0 471 430-531 470
Wheat 795.0 816 787-835 815
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Tuesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range November
Corn 316.2 314.1 313.5-314.3 314.2
Soybeans 112.2 112.3 112.0-112.5 112.4
Wheat 267.4 266.3 266.0-267.4 266.3
2024-25
Tuesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range November
Corn 296.4 303.4 300.0-305.3 304.1
Soybeans 131.9 132.9 132.0-135.0 131.7
Wheat 257.9 257.6 255.5-259.9 257.6

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Dec 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
24/25 23/24 22/23: 24/25 23/24 22/23: 24/25 23/24 22/23
Soybeans 470.0 342.0 264.0:181.97 177.47 171.75:427.14 394.87 378.16
Brazil na na na:105.50 104.17 95.50:169.00 153.00 162.00
Argentina na na na: 4.50 5.11 4.19: 52.00 48.21 25.00
China na na na: 0.10 0.07 0.09: 20.70 20.84 20.28
Soyoil 1,506 1,501 1,607: 12.65 11.77 11.71: 65.86 62.74 59.57
Corn 1,738 1,760 1,360:193.04 193.03 180.34: 1,218 1,230 1,163
China na na na: 0.02 0.00 0.01:292.00 288.84 277.20
Argentina na na na: 36.00 33.00 25.24: 51.00 50.00 37.00
S.Africa na na na: 2.80 2.00 3.44: 17.00 13.40 17.10
Cotton(a) 4.40 3.15 4.65: 42.26 44.61 36.65:117.39 112.98 116.30
All Wheat 795 696 570:213.65 221.39 221.74:792.95 791.24 789.89
China na na na: 1.00 1.04 0.95:140.00 136.59 137.72
European
Union na na na: 29.00 37.95 35.08:121.30 135.10 134.49
Canada na na na: 26.00 25.44 25.62: 34.96 32.95 34.81
Argentina na na na: 11.50 8.20 3.66: 17.50 15.85 12.55
Australia na na na: 25.00 19.88 31.82: 32.00 25.96 40.55
Russia na na na: 47.00 55.50 49.00: 81.50 91.50 92.00
Ukraine na na na: 16.50 18.58 17.12: 22.90 23.00 21.50
Sorghum 31.0 31.0 24.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 69.0 78.0 66.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 35.0 36.0 35.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 46.7 39.4 30.3: 58.12 56.60 55.20:533.68 522.65 516.73

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported by Rail – Dec 11
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED DEC 11, 2024 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING NOVEMBER 2024
————————————————————————
Nov-24 Oct-24 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 1,500
WHEAT HRS 0 0 0 11,277
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 800
WHEAT SRW 2 200 0 400 R
WHEAT SWW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 0 200
BARLEY MALTING 14 1,398 0 6,390
CANOLA 167 16,665 22,554 93,209
CORN WHITE 0 0 10,179 104,882
CORN YELLOW 9,182 916,288 1,017,371 11,620,771
CORN MIXED 0 0 9,879 9,879
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
MIXED GRAINS 0 0 0 499
OATS 0 0 0 899
SORGHUM 0 0 0 9,779
WHT SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 3,243 323,625 436,284 3,167,972
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 11,177
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 2,795
WHEAT HRS 538 53,689 55,686 752,847
WHEAT HRW 922 92,008 70,153 1,242,433
WHEAT SRW 273 27,243 31,537 600,762
WHEAT SWW 105 10,479 9,680 43,116
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 499 499
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWW=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Niki Davila 503-535-5001 Nicole.davila@usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec 12, 2024 456 Dec 06, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec 12, 2024 31 Nov 22, 2024
WHEAT December Dec 12, 2024 2 Dec 09, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were a little higher yesterday in all three markets in response to the USDA WASDE reports that showed increased export demand by 25 million bushels and a cut in ending stocks of the same amount. Wheat also rallied with strength in the Corn market. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady prices quoted in Russia and Argentina were around and helped keep the US market steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded about 4.0 million tons of production to feed instead of food. Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 553, 550, and 543 March, with resistance at 565, 571, and 577 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 551, 544, and 535 March, with resistance at 566, 577, and 591 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 593, 586, and 585 March, and resistance is at 608, 613, and 629 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday in response to the USDA WASDE reports. The reports cut export demand for long grain and increased ending stocks by 2.0 million hundredweight and increased the export demand for medium and short grain by two million hundredweight and cut ending stocks for those grains by two million. The trends are still mixed on the charts. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1486, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1544, and 1558 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. USDA showed increased export and domestic demand and reduced ending stocks in its reports yesterday. The world data also showed reduced ending stocks. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Oats were a little lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 442, 436, and 431 March, and resistance is at 452, 455, and 488 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 348, 339, and 332 March, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 376 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in response to the WASDE reports that showed an increase in export demand for Soybean Oil, but a cut in domestic consumption. Ending stocks for Soybean Oil were lower, but were unchanged for Soybeans. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be another detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans are often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1003, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 284.00, 281.00, and 278.00 January, and resistance is at 294.00, 299.00, and 304.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4100, 4070, and 3960 January, with resistance at 4350, 4450, and 4640 January.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on reports that MPOB had seen higher than expected monthly stocks levels. Demand from China has not been good, but demand from India has been seasonally strong. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was higher, but in smaller amounts than the previous few days, and the charts show that a low has been completed. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 596.00, 585.00, and 577.00 January, with resistance at 624.00, 633.00, and 643.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up Support is at 4800, 4740, and 4630 February, with resistance at 5020, 5080, and 5180 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Flurries and snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1240.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1190.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1080.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1022.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1245.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1195.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1085.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1027.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1222.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1022.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,250.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 510.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.43)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 95,098 lots, or .37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,858 3,859 3,838 3,844 3,861 3,847 -14 55,223 128,627
Mar-25 3,876 3,876 3,852 3,857 3,870 3,861 -9 7,491 32,989
May-25 3,877 3,881 3,864 3,871 3,880 3,874 -6 31,057 92,669
Jul-25 3,909 3,909 3,894 3,897 3,908 3,903 -5 578 8,794
Sep-25 3,934 3,935 3,920 3,924 3,935 3,929 -6 748 14,571
Nov-25 3,944 3,944 3,944 3,944 3,953 3,944 -9 1 136
Corn
Turnover: 983,360 lots, or 21.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,118 2,131 2,113 2,122 2,108 2,121 13 504,540 530,107
Mar-25 2,142 2,161 2,140 2,151 2,137 2,151 14 137,804 498,485
May-25 2,213 2,232 2,210 2,222 2,207 2,220 13 289,773 647,380
Jul-25 2,247 2,262 2,242 2,252 2,239 2,252 13 36,273 151,634
Sep-25 2,255 2,268 2,250 2,260 2,247 2,260 13 11,485 44,851
Nov-25 2,233 2,245 2,232 2,239 2,228 2,238 10 3,485 13,689
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,502,390 lots, or 40.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 – – – 2,802 2,802 2,802 0 0 0
Jan-25 2,867 2,867 2,835 2,846 2,853 2,849 -4 136,585 529,107
Mar-25 2,817 2,819 2,778 2,785 2,813 2,798 -15 31,709 329,202
May-25 2,673 2,683 2,641 2,650 2,681 2,662 -19 1,176,106 2,581,559
Jul-25 2,688 2,690 2,653 2,660 2,686 2,671 -15 18,530 226,950
Aug-25 2,811 2,813 2,777 2,784 2,815 2,796 -19 9,033 137,207
Sep-25 2,814 2,818 2,782 2,789 2,819 2,800 -19 110,231 627,872
Nov-25 2,836 2,838 2,804 2,811 2,838 2,819 -19 20,196 152,983
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,412,510 lots, or 13.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 – – – 10,268 10,268 10,268 0 0 990
Jan-25 9,986 10,082 9,918 10,066 10,180 9,994 -186 735,018 295,422
Feb-25 9,922 9,974 9,844 9,966 10,106 9,904 -202 24,811 25,012
Mar-25 9,766 9,822 9,684 9,812 9,936 9,746 -190 10,930 13,097
Apr-25 9,536 9,592 9,450 9,582 9,696 9,500 -196 1,257 1,015
May-25 9,252 9,370 9,204 9,352 9,460 9,282 -178 613,545 414,632
Jun-25 9,070 9,152 8,998 9,144 9,214 9,040 -174 226 554
Jul-25 8,872 8,962 8,806 8,962 8,986 8,860 -126 233 431
Aug-25 8,690 8,772 8,640 8,770 8,828 8,676 -152 67 136
Sep-25 8,536 8,652 8,492 8,632 8,634 8,564 -70 26,229 39,124
Oct-25 8,380 8,514 8,350 8,512 8,446 8,430 -16 108 401
Nov-25 8,270 8,414 8,234 8,406 8,316 8,330 14 86 150
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 685,828 lots, or 5.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 8,084 8,084 8,084 8,084 7,950 8,084 134 2 1,500
Jan-25 7,936 8,136 7,936 8,130 8,020 8,054 34 127,276 205,758
Mar-25 7,954 8,110 7,924 8,108 7,992 8,042 50 4,915 21,333
May-25 7,876 8,050 7,848 8,048 7,912 7,962 50 529,499 623,070
Jul-25 7,760 7,914 7,732 7,914 7,798 7,840 42 1,350 4,883
Aug-25 7,794 7,942 7,766 7,930 7,848 7,878 30 259 522
Sep-25 7,774 7,922 7,744 7,918 7,820 7,842 22 22,462 87,170
Nov-25 7,780 7,880 7,746 7,878 7,808 7,834 26 65 107
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322