Softs Report 12/11/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday in reaction to the monthly WASDE report that showed an uptick n ending stocks estimates. The trends are still turning down. There was not much in the way of news or action in outside markets to spur Cotton in one direction or the other. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved but still rather low US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 68.40, 67.90, and 66.40 March, with resistance of 71.00, 71.90 and 72.40 March.

All cotton production is forecast at 14.3 million 480-pound bales, up less
than 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 18 percent from 2023. Based
on conditions as of December 1, yields are expected to average 792 pounds per
harvested acre, up 3 pounds from the previous forecast but down 107 pounds
from 2023. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.8 million 480-pound
bales, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 17 percent
from 2023. Pima cotton production is forecast at 498,000 bales, up 4 percent
from the previous forecast and up 58 percent from 2023.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
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2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Nov Dec
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 11.17 11.17
Harvested 7.29 6.44 8.63 8.63
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 789 792
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.60 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 14.47 12.07 14.19 14.26
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 19.07 16.72 17.35 17.41
Domestic Use 2.05 1.85 1.80 1.80
Exports, Total 12.45 11.75 11.30 11.30
Use, Total 14.50 13.60 13.10 13.10
Unaccounted 2/ -0.08 -0.03 -0.05 -0.09
Ending Stocks 4.65 3.15 4.30 4.40
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.1 66.0 66.0
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WASDE – 655 – 18 December 2024

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2024/25 Proj.
World
Nov 74.59 116.18 42.15 115.22 42.18 -0.23 75.75
Dec 74.16 117.39 42.25 115.79 42.26 -0.27 76.02
World Less China
Nov 37.47 87.98 33.15 77.22 42.10 -0.23 39.51
Dec 37.05 89.19 33.75 78.29 42.18 -0.27 39.77
United States
Nov 3.15 14.19 0.01 1.80 11.30 -0.05 4.30
Dec 3.15 14.26 0.01 1.80 11.30 -0.09 4.40
Total Foreign
Nov 71.44 101.99 42.15 113.42 30.88 -0.18 71.45
Dec 71.01 103.13 42.25 113.99 30.96 -0.18 71.62
Major Exporters 4/
Nov 24.86 58.67 3.07 34.65 26.79 -0.18 25.34
Dec 24.40 59.82 3.07 35.17 26.92 -0.18 25.38
Major Importers 8/
Nov 44.27 39.94 36.41 74.49 2.35 0.00 43.78
Dec 44.27 39.94 36.43 74.46 2.30 0.00 43.88
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WASDE – 655 – 28 December 2024

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and the chart trends are mixed. USDA estimated all Oranges production at 2.48 million tons for the US and 12 million boxes. The estimates are don from early forecasts and from the previous year. The short term supply scenario remains very tight. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 484.00, 480.00, and 470.00 January, with resistance at 506.00, 516.00, and 533.00 January

The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is
2.48 million tons, down 5 percent from the previous forecast and
down 10 percent from the 2023-2024 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (540,000 tons), is down 20 percent from the
previous forecast and down 33 percent from last season’s final utilization.
In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
5.00 million boxes (225,000 tons), down 17 percent from the previous forecast
and down 26 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida
Valencia orange forecast, at 7.00 million boxes (315,000 tons), is
down 22 percent from the previous forecast and down 38 percent from last
season’s final utilization. California and Texas orange production forecasts
were carried forward from the previous forecast.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was lower after trading 15 cents higher early in the session. It appeared to be reversal day yesterday. London closed higher again yesterday. Volcafe estimated Brazil production at 34.4 million bags, down 11 million bags from its previous estimate. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. There are reports from Brazil that producers have already sold a lot of Coffee and are holding back on selling more even with good demand. Offers from Vietnam are increasing now as the harvest has been expanding. The chart trends are still up in both markets. There are reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 312.77 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 340.00, 346.00 and 352.00 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 5100, 4910, and 4770 January, with resistance at 5550, 5600, and 5660 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday. Both markets are starting new moves lower. The current Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and mixed on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2080, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2200, 2240, and 2250 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 536.00, 529.00, and 524.00 March, with resistance at 551.00, 564.00, and 568.00 March.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Nov Dec
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 2162 2162
Production 2/ 9250 9368 9276 9226
Beet Sugar 5187 5236 5210 5160
Cane Sugar 4063 4133 4066 4066
Florida 1985 2077 2053 2053
Louisiana 2001 2016 2014 2014
Texas 76 40 0 0
Imports 3614 3811 2581 2863
TRQ 3/ 1862 1788 1628 1628
Other Program 4/ 141 272 200 200
Non-program 1611 1752 753 1034
Mexico 1156 521 395 558
High-tier tariff/other 455 1231 358 476
Total Supply 14685 15022 14019 14251
Exports 82 249 100 100
Deliveries 12589 12506 12455 12455
Food 12473 12400 12350 12350
Other 5/ 116 106 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 105 0 0
Total Use 12843 12860 12555 12555
Ending Stocks 1843 2162 1464 1696
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 16.8 11.7 13.5
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Nov 835 4704 761 4436 446 1418
Dec 835 4704 761 4436 446 1418
2024/25 Proj.
Nov 1418 5094 96 4630 1006 972
Dec 1418 5094 96 4630 1006 972
================================================================================
WASDE – 655 – 17 December 2024

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday as the weather induced buying continued. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 10000, 9790, and 9570 March, with resistance at 10700, 10820, and 10940 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 7890, 7640, and 7330 March, with resistance at 8340, 8400, and 8520 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322