Softs Report 10/14/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week and trends are turning down on the daily charts as continued stressful weather was seen in the south but export demand was less. USDA cut production and demand in its reports released on Friday and ending stocks were increased a little bit to 4.10 million bales. There are still ideas and reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China. However, Chinese demand could start to improve as the government there is injecting a lot of money into the economy in an effort to get the country moving again. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. The Delta has had somewhat better growing conditions but overall the entire crop has seen some stress.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 71.80, 71.10, and 70.20 December, with resistance of 73.50, 75.80 and 77.70 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 08, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 293,873
: Positions :
: 22,460 59,830 78,742 85,634 125,335 91,350 16,080 278,187 279,987: 15,687 13,886
: Changes from: October 1, 2024 (Change in open interest: 12,673) :
: -830 3,113 929 7,374 7,051 5,679 621 13,152 11,715: -479 958
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 20.4 26.8 29.1 42.6 31.1 5.5 94.7 95.3: 5.3 4.7
: Total Traders: 296 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 86 92 66 62 45 22 242 215:
——————————————————————————————————————-

All cotton production is forecast at 14.2 million 480-pound bales, down
2 percent from the previous forecast but up 18 percent from 2023. Based on
conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 789 pounds per
harvested acre, down 18 pounds from the previous forecast and down 110 pounds
from 2023. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound
bales, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 16 percent from 2023.
Pima cotton production is forecast at 516,000 bales, down 6 percent from the
previous forecast but up 63 percent from 2023. All cotton area harvested is
forecast at 8.63 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up
34 percent from 2023.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Sep Oct
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 11.17 11.17
Harvested 7.29 6.44 8.63 8.63
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 807 789
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.60 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 14.47 12.07 14.51 14.20
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 19.07 16.72 17.67 17.36
Domestic Use 2.05 1.85 1.90 1.80
Exports, Total 12.45 11.75 11.80 11.50
Use, Total 14.50 13.60 13.70 13.30
Unaccounted 2/ -0.08 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04
Ending Stocks 4.65 3.15 4.00 4.10
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.1 66.0 66.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 653 – 18 October 2024

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2024/25 Proj.
World
Sep 75.61 116.42 42.99 115.75 42.99 -0.21 76.49
Oct 75.20 116.64 42.48 115.74 42.47 -0.22 76.33
World Less China
Sep 37.99 88.62 33.49 77.75 42.92 -0.21 39.65
Oct 38.08 88.44 33.48 77.74 42.40 -0.22 40.08
United States
Sep 3.15 14.51 0.01 1.90 11.80 -0.03 4.00
Oct 3.15 14.20 0.01 1.80 11.50 -0.04 4.10
Total Foreign
Sep 72.46 101.91 42.98 113.85 31.19 -0.18 72.49
Oct 72.05 102.44 42.47 113.94 30.97 -0.18 72.23
Major Exporters 4/
Sep 25.34 58.57 3.00 34.66 26.96 -0.18 25.47
Oct 25.36 58.75 3.00 34.66 26.76 -0.18 25.86
Major Importers 8/
Sep 44.71 39.85 37.33 74.91 2.39 0.00 44.59
Oct 44.27 40.20 36.81 74.99 2.37 0.00 43.93
================================================================================
WASDE – 653 – 28 October 2024

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher as Hurricane Milton moved from the Gulf of Mexico and moved from west to east across the state as a category 3 hurricane. Further buying was seen on Friday after USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 20 million last year. Growing conditions appear to be generally good for now. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil has been hot and dry. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 447.00, 443.00, and 433.00 November, with resistance at a 478.00, 488.00, and 490.00 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 1, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,027 :
: Positions :
: 1,961 7,262 667 0 340 3,490 170 22 839 528 3,359 :
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 :
: 625 -60 -99 0 120 -460 -100 -58 -132 6 200 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 55.7 5.1 0.0 2.6 26.8 1.3 0.2 6.4 4.1 25.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 11 8 . 0 . 18 . . 9 9 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is
2.62 million tons, down 5 percent from the 2023-2024 final utilization. The
Florida all orange forecast, at 15.0 million boxes (675,000 tons), is
down 16 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, early,
midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.00 million boxes
(270,000 tons), down 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. The
Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 9.00 million boxes (405,000 tons), is
down 20 percent from last season’s final utilization.
The California all orange forecast is 47.7 million boxes (1.91 million tons),
up less than 1 percent from the last season’s final utilization. The
California Navel orange forecast is 39.0 million boxes (1.56 million tons),
unchanged from last month but up 2 percent from the last season’s final
utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.70 million boxes
(348,000 tons), down 6 percent from last season’s final utilization. The
Texas all orange forecast, at 850,000 boxes (36,000 tons), is down 28 percent
from last season’s final utilization.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week as rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. NY December failed at resistance areas on the daily charts but still closed higher. There are now forecasts for some rains starting today in Brazil as the rainy season is now set to begin after very dry conditions until now. Losses are still possible in Brazil and also Vietnam from previous bad weather. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 253.18 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 249.00, 242.00, and 236.00 December, and resistance is at 258.00, 260.00 and 265.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4800, 4750, and 4670 November, with resistance at 5100, 5280, and 5410 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 08, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 256,214
: Positions :
: 48,963 12,939 71,116 63,633 154,016 63,444 12,614 247,155 250,683: 9,059 5,530
: Changes from: October 1, 2024 (Change in open interest: -4,791) :
: -4,060 641 591 2,009 -6,854 -2,182 605 -3,641 -5,017: -1,150 226
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.1 5.0 27.8 24.8 60.1 24.8 4.9 96.5 97.8: 3.5 2.2
: Total Traders: 386 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 64 118 99 126 50 20 324 289:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower last week on better rains starting early last week and on overall weakness in world petroleum prices based on reduced fears of the problems in the Mideast. A cold front has moved north from southern Brazil last week that has spread north and brought much needed rains to Sugar areas. Dry conditions seen generally in Brazil continued to support both markets overall. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 2020, 1980, and 1960 March and resistance is at 2270, 2340, and 2360 March. Trends in London are down. Support is at 570.00, 564.00, and 552.00 December, with resistance at 586.00, 590.00, and 593.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 08, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 991,433
: Positions :
: 125,684 111,514 231,565 325,284 576,175 225,183 24,191 907,716 943,443: 83,717 47,990
: Changes from: October 1, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,345) :
: -6,251 24,890 1,532 380 -16,743 2,493 -2,482 -1,846 7,197: 8,190 -852
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 11.2 23.4 32.8 58.1 22.7 2.4 91.6 95.2: 8.4 4.8
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 33 76 69 74 42 17 214 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Sep Oct
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 2278 2231
Production 2/ 9250 9197 9474 9495
Beet Sugar 5187 5117 5311 5347
Cane Sugar 4063 4080 4163 4148
Florida 1985 2077 2053 2053
Louisiana 2001 1963 2111 2095
Texas 76 40 0 0
Imports 3614 3854 2530 2568
TRQ 3/ 1862 1788 1618 1628
Other Program 4/ 141 313 200 200
Non-program 1611 1753 712 740
Mexico 1156 521 395 395
High-tier tariff/other 455 1232 317 345
Total Supply 14685 14894 14282 14293
Exports 82 225 100 100
Deliveries 12589 12438 12405 12405
Food 12473 12300 12300 12300
Other 5/ 116 138 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 0 0 0
Total Use 12843 12663 12505 12505
Ending Stocks 1843 2231 1777 1788
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 17.6 14.2 14.3
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Sep 835 4704 816 4532 445 1377
Oct 835 4704 854 4532 446 1414
2024/25 Proj.
Sep 1377 5094 25 4653 867 977
Oct 1414 5094 25 4630 932 972
===============================================================================
WASDE – 653 – 17 October 2024

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and short term trends turned up on the daily charts. The rally is not expected to go very far as the harvest has started in West Africa. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. Sources told wire services that the rains seen last week were beneficial for crop development. Surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 7560, 7230, and 7060 December, with resistance at 8040, 8240, and 8800 December. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5490, 5350, and 5130 December, with resistance at 5800, 5900, and 6220 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 08, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 186,801
: Positions :
: 27,537 11,153 68,427 49,942 92,650 29,486 10,156 175,392 182,387: 11,409 4,414
: Changes from: October 1, 2024 (Change in open interest: -13,851) :
: -2,596 465 -5,426 -5,639 -7,574 -905 -785 -14,566 -13,320: 714 -531
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 6.0 36.6 26.7 49.6 15.8 5.4 93.9 97.6: 6.1 2.4
: Total Traders: 177 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 40 60 38 34 30 12 162 117:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322