Grains Report 10/03/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 3
For the week ended Sep 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 443.7 0.0 11615.0 9438.5 3588.8 21.5
hrw 57.3 0.0 2692.2 1663.5 862.1 0.0
srw 42.0 0.0 1852.7 2048.0 570.0 21.5
hrs 142.2 0.0 3858.5 3427.3 1157.6 0.0
white 201.2 0.0 3004.5 2019.3 933.5 0.0
durum 1.0 0.0 207.0 280.4 65.6 0.0
corn 1684.1 0.0 16427.7 14384.5 13021.7 112.0
soybeans 1443.5 1.0 18941.6 18452.2 17007.6 9.4
soymeal -40.7 228.6 13837.1 12912.6 760.1 4189.2
soyoil 0.5 30.8 281.7 132.4 22.6 55.3
upland cotton 95.8 39.6 5054.8 5780.4 3989.0 398.1
pima cotton 9.5 0.0 160.5 79.4 102.6 0.0
sorghum 48.0 1.0 663.3 2294.2 421.8 1.0
barley 0.0 0.0 19.7 16.1 17.1 0.0
rice 35.8 0.0 964.7 759.9 548.5 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 04, 2024 29 Sep 25, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher for one more day yesterday on the dry weather outlook for Russia. Another Wheat producing region has declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain. World prices were higher amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher as production estimates remain lower and two regions have now declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up. Support is at 583, 576, and 564 December, with resistance at 658, 677, and 719 December. Trends in Kansas City are up. Support is at 591, 579, and 571 December, with resistance at 633, 672, and 690 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 624, 611, and 604 December, and resistance is at 652, 693, and 704 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower in response to the US dock workers strike and the threat of war between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. A hurricane came late in the week in the southern US and hit rice areas in the northern Delta with a lot of wind and rain. Another is forming in the Atlantic but it is unclear when and where it will hit if anywhere There was concern to damage to unharvested crops in the region. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1479, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1557, 1562, and 1575 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher, with Corn higher on follow through buying from the strength in Wheat and on ideas of less offer from Ukraine. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is under way. Yield reports heard so far show strong production potential for the national crop. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 415, 409, and 401 December, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 458 September. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 378, 374, and 357 December, and resistance is at 395, 404, and 410 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed and Soybean Meal was lower yesterday as China was closed for the week due to a holiday and the port strike in the US interrupting shipments from the East Coast and Gulf Coast. The USDA reports for Soybeans were about as expected by the trade and offered no reason to add to longs. Soybean Oil closed higher. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small beans in the pods although there have been spotty showers more recently. Dry weather is expected to return this week. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. There are some forecasts for showers to return to central and northern areas in a couple of weeks. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but the country will be on holiday this week so no new demand is expected.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1031, 1018, and 1002 November, and resistance is at 1087, 1097, and 1114 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 332.00, 329.00, and 322.00 December, and resistance is at 351.00, 355.00, and 361.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4140, and 4070 December, with resistance at 4480, 4520, and 4690 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today in correction trading after the recent rally. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil. Canola was higher yesterday. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 596.00, 588.00, and 572.00 November, with resistance at 619.00, 622.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4040, 3990, and 3950 December, with resistance at 4200, 4260, and 4320 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1065.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1055.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1045.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1005.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 970.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1070.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1060.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1050.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1010.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 975.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1080.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 910.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,300.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 355.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.222)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322