Softs Report 09/16/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week on speculative buying tied to the data in the USDA reports and reports that the weather in southern states that featured a hurricane that could damage crops in Delta states. USDA cut production and demand for reduced ending stocks. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now even after some very hot weather recently and now some big rains moving through the region, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Futures are now as cheap as they have been for several years.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 68.30, 67.50, and 66.30 December, with resistance of 71.30, 73.00 and 75.80 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 272,378
: Positions :
: 23,074 86,053 67,146 86,350 83,453 81,051 18,556 257,620 255,208: 14,758 17,170
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,593) :
: -707 5,902 -178 4,197 -4,003 548 279 3,860 2,000: -267 1,593
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 31.6 24.7 31.7 30.6 29.8 6.8 94.6 93.7: 5.4 6.3
: Total Traders: 313 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 108 92 65 60 47 22 241 231:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and posted a reversal to down on the weekly charts as forecasts call for limited tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this or next week and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida but one is headed for the Texas-Louisiana border area. A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry. Ideas are that demand haws suffered recently with the move to extremely high prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 468.00, 453.00, and 439.00 November, with resistance at a 492.00, 506.00, and 512.00 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,280 :
: Positions :
: 1,330 7,921 814 0 146 3,804 346 77 1,210 527 3,159 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: -27 519 -1 0 74 368 -47 52 34 95 584 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 59.6 6.1 0.0 1.1 28.6 2.6 0.6 9.1 4.0 23.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 7 8 4 0 . 22 . . 13 7 10 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and at new highs for the move with offers from Vietnam and Indonesia still hard to find but offers from Brazil in the market. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. It is very dry in Brazil right now.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is now 255.22 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 251.00, 246.00, and 242.00 December, and resistance is at 264.00, 270.00 and 276.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4910, 4750, and 4710 November, with resistance at 5300, 5360, and 5420 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 239,352 :
: Positions :
: 51,190 95,483 29,038 49,975 8,529 67,667 11,040 26,095 10,908 5,041 37,799 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: 2,110 68 -727 430 483 68 -359 -1,409 -1,489 -296 902 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.4 39.9 12.1 20.9 3.6 28.3 4.6 10.9 4.6 2.1 15.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 375 :
: 81 97 18 22 20 103 25 66 49 47 53 :
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher last week. Chinese demand is a problem amid the economic problems seen there. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil to help promote an active harvest period. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed to allow any exports. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1850 March and resistance is at 1990, 2020, and 2110 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 519.00, 509.00, and 505.00 December, with resistance at 537.00, 541.00, and 548.00 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 991,178 :
: Positions :
: 355,670 417,349 108,381 96,120 64,686 106,103 76,152 119,663 48,740 32,207 117,848 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: 940 -4,831 5,931 -4,088 -10,460 -12,552 1,499 -6,342 -536 -2,965 8,836 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.9 42.1 10.9 9.7 6.5 10.7 7.7 12.1 4.9 3.2 11.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 234 :
: 64 58 16 12 20 46 41 58 28 18 33 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on ideas of tight supplies available to the market now as production for the next crop looks to be improved. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently dry weather in Ivory Coast. Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 6820 and 6020 December. Support is at 6600, 6000, and 5870 December, with resistance at 7940, 8240, and 8550 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4870, 4850, and 4790 December, with resistance at 5510, 5690, and 5800 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 185,941 :
: Positions :
: 47,105 75,831 8,669 9,913 8,983 37,884 11,459 28,458 2,925 5,357 40,951 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: 830 1,992 1,128 -817 -178 -2,652 -1,976 -282 -963 -1,200 1,152 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.3 40.8 4.7 5.3 4.8 20.4 6.2 15.3 1.6 2.9 22.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 174 :
: 29 31 14 5 12 53 19 38 22 22 33 :
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322