Grains Report 09/06/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 6
For the week ended Aug 29, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 340.0 -10.5 10291.1 7875.3 4691.4 0.2
hrw 106.0 -10.5 2532.2 1429.0 1123.4 0.0
srw 77.9 0.0 1721.8 1882.5 741.7 0.0
hrs 76.1 0.0 3307.0 2805.8 1603.0 0.2
white 74.0 0.0 2563.7 1557.5 1163.9 0.0
durum 6.1 0.0 166.5 200.5 59.5 0.0
corn -173.1 1822.5 55777.8 40582.5 1767.9 11241.0
soybeans -228.0 1658.7 45438.0 53430.2 1008.4 11816.6
soymeal 40.9 434.7 13891.6 13095.0 1658.8 3118.6
soyoil 1.9 3.3 234.1 130.4 36.1 18.9
upland cotton 207.5 8.4 4648.3 5311.9 4018.2 347.9
pima cotton 10.1 0.0 115.6 57.2 83.1 0.0
sorghum 62.0 251.0 5923.3 2772.0 9.6 529.3
barley 0.0 0.0 20.1 16.0 18.3 0.0
rice 40.7 0.0 730.7 545.7 550.9 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets yesterday as world prices from Russia have not rallied. Cash markets are weaker in Europe and Russia. Ideas of good crops in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 560, 544, and 532 December, with resistance at 603, 615, and 642 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 524, 573, and 566 December, with resistance at 595, 607, and 618 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 602, 595, and 575 December, and resistance is at 630, 618, and 630 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. However, planted area has increased from last year
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1472, and 1466 November and resistance is at 1544, 1551, and 1562 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed slightly lower yesterday on speculative concerns about what USDA will say in the production report due next week as cooler and dry weather was reported and forecast in just about all of the Midwest and is forecast for the weekend. Ideas are that USDA will show very strong yield and production potential for the crop tis year. These ideas were enhanced by FC Stone and linn Group issuing very large yield an production estimates, although the estimate from Stine was a little below ts previous estimate. Producer selling of old crop supplies wrapped up last week before September First Notice Day last Friday and farmers plan to hold new crop supplies. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest for the next week or longer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 402, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 325, 314, and 305 December, and resistance is at 358, 361, and 364 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher again yesterday on speculative buying that came after a big drop in prices initially and appeared to be short covering. Soybean Oil was lower on further weakness in Canola values. Stronger demand news as Chia bought again were reasons to trade the market. There is also concern about the hot and dry weather seen in the Midwest early last week that could hurt pod fill. However, FC Stone and linn Group both forecast record crops and USDA is likely to agree when it releases its estimates next week. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is turning cooler now but it should remain dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 988, 973, and 961 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4020, 3940, and 3710 October, with resistance at 4200, 4300, and 4400 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher after starting the day lower yesterday. Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher in recovery trading as China started to retaliate against Canada for imposing new tariffs on EV from China. China has moved to increase tariffs on Canadian Canola and Canola Oil imports and demand concerns are real as China had been a major buyer of Canola and Oil. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 570.00, 563.00, and 556.00 November, with resistance at 606.00, 621.00, and 629.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3860, 3820, and 3740 November, with resistance at 3950, 4020, and 4090 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports Sep 965.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 940.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 930.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 922.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 970.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 945.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 935.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 927.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 985.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 835.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 4,030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 336.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.333)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 90,040 lots, or 3.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 4,438 4,438 4,438 0 0 4,065
Nov-24 4,390 4,402 4,380 4,392 4,382 4,390 8 7,716 20,381
Jan-25 4,332 4,349 4,325 4,336 4,326 4,337 11 79,641 135,891
Mar-25 4,247 4,276 4,247 4,268 4,251 4,263 12 1,420 14,845
May-25 4,278 4,297 4,273 4,292 4,273 4,287 14 947 8,157
Jul-25 4,219 4,238 4,219 4,230 4,215 4,227 12 316 3,389
Corn
Turnover: 643,800 lots, or 14.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,273 2,295 2,270 2,273 2,284 2,278 -6 391 6,884
Nov-24 2,285 2,289 2,265 2,268 2,289 2,277 -12 465,178 575,634
Jan-25 2,266 2,272 2,253 2,257 2,269 2,262 -7 131,560 448,156
Mar-25 2,258 2,262 2,247 2,248 2,262 2,254 -8 27,450 158,190
May-25 2,296 2,300 2,288 2,290 2,300 2,293 -7 12,435 61,691
Jul-25 2,302 2,309 2,298 2,300 2,311 2,303 -8 6,786 36,853
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,316,531 lots, or 70.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 3,077 3,100 3,077 3,093 3,087 3,092 5 358 2,523
Nov-24 3,116 3,158 3,113 3,154 3,115 3,134 19 153,689 400,351
Dec-24 3,101 3,144 3,095 3,140 3,099 3,116 17 15,296 112,279
Jan-25 3,076 3,128 3,070 3,122 3,072 3,097 25 1,716,149 1,434,570
Mar-25 2,946 2,979 2,944 2,974 2,938 2,960 22 14,043 109,650
May-25 2,860 2,892 2,855 2,882 2,857 2,874 17 385,435 994,853
Jul-25 2,860 2,892 2,858 2,876 2,862 2,876 14 24,211 95,366
Aug-25 2,963 2,994 2,963 2,982 2,965 2,978 13 7,350 42,545
Palm Oil
Turnover: 843,731 lots, or 66.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 8,004 8,004 8,004 8,004 8,004 8,004 0 5 608
Oct-24 7,912 8,030 7,912 7,954 7,892 7,976 84 38,186 15,716
Nov-24 7,928 8,034 7,920 7,946 7,884 7,970 86 4,868 6,750
Dec-24 7,930 8,018 7,902 7,928 7,876 7,938 62 412 671
Jan-25 7,900 8,000 7,852 7,886 7,844 7,926 82 752,102 488,602
Feb-25 7,918 7,958 7,834 7,848 7,840 7,860 20 205 336
Mar-25 7,862 7,956 7,814 7,838 7,810 7,858 48 1,648 3,316
Apr-25 7,862 7,926 7,794 7,810 7,794 7,840 46 72 281
May-25 7,774 7,880 7,740 7,768 7,730 7,812 82 46,141 107,854
Jun-25 7,746 7,814 7,690 7,708 7,682 7,744 62 47 134
Jul-25 7,690 7,756 7,628 7,650 7,622 7,684 62 39 154
Aug-25 7,672 7,684 7,600 7,600 7,596 7,644 48 6 25
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 556,168 lots, or 42.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,750 7,750 7,608 7,608 7,766 7,666 -100 24 4,109
Nov-24 7,688 7,784 7,666 7,706 7,702 7,714 12 14,051 27,244
Dec-24 7,702 7,794 7,682 7,722 7,718 7,728 10 1,068 4,309
Jan-25 7,684 7,780 7,660 7,704 7,702 7,714 12 488,583 611,055
Mar-25 7,618 7,680 7,576 7,610 7,610 7,622 12 321 4,440
May-25 7,430 7,500 7,390 7,438 7,432 7,448 16 51,968 200,328
Jul-25 7,350 7,386 7,312 7,338 7,334 7,346 12 133 723
Aug-25 7,366 7,366 7,316 7,316 7,352 7,356 4 20 140
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322