Grains Report 08/21/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little higher in all three markets on stable overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 540, and 534 September, with resistance at 568, 574, and 581 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 531, 528, and 522 September, with resistance at 559, 567, and 579 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 574, and 568 September, and resistance is at 601, 613, and 629 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering tied in part to ideas of a reduction in the Texas crop due to poor weather. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1480, 1472, and 1453 September and resistance is at 1509, 1516, and 1532 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little lower yesterday in quiet trading. Oats rallied to the upper end of the recent trading range. The Pro Farmer crop tour has started and found good Corn and Soybeans crops in Indiana, but slightly less yield potential than USDA for the current year. The crops in Nebraska showed signs of heat stress and a lack of rain and some insect stress. Yields for both states were calculated to be slightly below USDA estimates. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 367, 364, and 361 September, and resistance is at 385, 390, and 402 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 323, 315, and 313 September, and resistance is at 336, 348, and 358 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mostly a little higher yesterday on speculative short covering generated by a stronger demand news and news from the Pro Farmer crop tour. Trader reported good production potential from the Pro Farmer crop tour in Indiana, but less than ideal conditions in Nebraska. Pod counts were a little below current USDA estimates. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn warmer later this week amid dry weather and western areas should stay warm and dry. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but is buying a lot in the US as well. Mexico bought US Soybeans this week. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 121,00-0 tons of US Soybeans and China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 952, 939, and 928 September, and resistance is at 973, 1007, and 1018 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 302.00, and 300.00 September, and resistance is at 323.00, 325.00, and 329.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3970, 3860, and 3800 September, with resistance at 4130, 4190, and 4360 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with Chicago price action. Indian imports of Palm Oil were the highest for the year in July. Exports are 834,948 tons so far this month. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower on ideas of increasing producer offers as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 562.00, 558.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 575.00, 588.00, and 591.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3670, 3640, and 3610 November, with resistance at 3780, 3810, and 3820 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 940.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 900.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 892.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 887.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 945.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 905.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 897.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 892.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 965.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 845.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 3,940.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 341.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.372)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 92,149 lots, or 3.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,449 4,466 4,444 4,460 4,477 4,455 -22 9,239 19,246
Nov-24 4,329 4,339 4,319 4,337 4,341 4,328 -13 4,096 25,095
Jan-25 4,214 4,237 4,207 4,233 4,229 4,222 -7 72,229 158,405
Mar-25 4,161 4,174 4,151 4,166 4,178 4,164 -14 4,896 12,666
May-25 4,208 4,218 4,202 4,213 4,226 4,212 -14 1,547 6,857
Jul-25 4,190 4,191 4,180 4,189 4,203 4,184 -19 142 1,084
Corn
Turnover: 584,952 lots, or 1.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,310 2,327 2,305 2,326 2,310 2,313 3 59,631 122,809
Nov-24 2,288 2,303 2,283 2,303 2,286 2,290 4 362,740 642,460
Jan-25 2,266 2,283 2,263 2,283 2,266 2,270 4 113,567 455,496
Mar-25 2,247 2,260 2,241 2,260 2,244 2,248 4 25,441 127,218
May-25 2,282 2,299 2,281 2,299 2,284 2,290 6 16,606 42,352
Jul-25 2,288 2,300 2,283 2,300 2,288 2,291 3 6,967 16,694
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,493,669 lots, or 43.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,908 2,923 2,890 2,921 2,914 2,907 -7 154,022 271,074
Nov-24 2,941 2,961 2,925 2,958 2,945 2,944 -1 88,293 471,648
Dec-24 2,959 2,978 2,943 2,973 2,959 2,959 0 6,547 88,106
Jan-25 2,942 2,964 2,923 2,960 2,942 2,943 1 1,032,334 1,406,122
Mar-25 2,875 2,898 2,863 2,894 2,865 2,879 14 10,575 101,074
May-25 2,784 2,815 2,784 2,811 2,784 2,798 14 180,677 922,123
Jul-25 2,803 2,829 2,793 2,826 2,797 2,811 14 14,998 90,604
Aug-25 2,895 2,926 2,890 2,919 2,884 2,907 23 6,223 23,058
Palm Oil
Turnover: 634,592 lots, or 48.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,806 7,856 7,780 7,788 7,790 7,816 26 45,624 36,891
Oct-24 7,766 7,834 7,756 7,772 7,752 7,792 40 10,634 12,300
Nov-24 7,722 7,788 7,720 7,740 7,698 7,752 54 2,585 5,693
Dec-24 7,694 7,746 7,680 7,702 7,648 7,720 72 303 745
Jan-25 7,628 7,694 7,616 7,648 7,592 7,654 62 554,607 471,337
Feb-25 7,572 7,630 7,572 7,624 7,554 7,608 54 48 383
Mar-25 7,538 7,594 7,528 7,582 7,512 7,564 52 158 3,250
Apr-25 7,476 7,548 7,476 7,518 7,458 7,514 56 52 277
May-25 7,428 7,506 7,428 7,474 7,412 7,474 62 20,500 78,869
Jun-25 7,408 7,454 7,408 7,436 7,380 7,438 58 53 115
Jul-25 7,378 7,430 7,376 7,408 7,340 7,404 64 24 56
Aug-25 7,328 7,370 7,328 7,370 7,326 7,344 18 4 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 572,022 lots, or 42.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,380 7,448 7,380 7,436 7,418 7,420 2 78,122 73,048
Nov-24 7,388 7,466 7,376 7,440 7,374 7,424 50 14,323 25,432
Dec-24 7,408 7,482 7,408 7,464 7,400 7,446 46 986 2,756
Jan-25 7,396 7,456 7,384 7,436 7,378 7,416 38 444,948 599,727
Mar-25 7,332 7,386 7,328 7,370 7,318 7,362 44 245 4,054
May-25 7,200 7,266 7,196 7,238 7,194 7,226 32 33,307 154,867
Jul-25 7,228 7,272 7,204 7,242 7,204 7,240 36 89 491
Aug-25 7,242 7,244 7,242 7,244 7,184 7,242 58 2 7
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322