Grains Report 07/17/2024

NO COMMENTS FRIDAY OR MONDAY

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets again yesterday with follow through selling seen due to increased Winter Wheat production estimates from USDA and on demand concerns. The production data helped push ending stocks estimates above trade expectations. The failed assassination attempt on Mr. Trump helped boost the stock markets but hurt agricultural goods as Trump is likely to greatly increase tariffs to cut income taxes. That hurt demand ideas for US agricultural goods. US harvest progress and ideas of good yields and crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 525 and 489 September. Support is at 526, 520, and 514 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 535 and 507 September. Support is at 546, 540, and 534 September, with resistance at 564, 590, and 601 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 575 and 541 September. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 September, and resistance is at 598, 603, and 61-0 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower as futures continued to move lower and reflect mostly good growing conditions and increased planted area. Hurricane Beryl has brought beneficial rains to Arkansas and other parts of the Delta. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1419 and 1382 September. Support is at 1440, 1428, and 1416 September and resistance is at 1456, 1471, and 1489 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and Oats closed lower. It was a short covering rally in Corn based on ideas that future reflected big yield potential and were cheap enough. USDA issued new crop condition ratings on Monday and they were unchanged from the previous week. Hurricane Beryl brought beneficial precipitation to the southern and eastern Midwest. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week. The US weather features moderate temperatures and increasing chances for rains. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota that have had way too much rain and flooding is still reported. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. The failed assassination attempt on Mr Trump created ideas that his election was much more likely, and this helped boost the stock markets but hurt agricultural goods as Trump is likely to greatly increase tariffs to cut income taxes. That hurt demand ideas for US agricultural goods.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 388, 385, and 382 September, and resistance is at 403, 412, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 301, 296, and 290 September, and resistance is at 324, 327, and 331 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher yesterday as the weather improved and demand did not. Soybean Oil closed lower. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the weekend and again yesterday. The NOPA crush report released on Monday showed less than expected demand at 177 million bushels for June. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. The failed assassination attempt on Mr Trump created ideas that his election was much more likely, and this helped boost the stock markets but hurt agricultural goods as Trump is likely to greatly increase tariffs to cut income taxes. That hurt demand ideas for US agricultural goods. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1068, 1056, and 1044 August, and resistance is at 1102, 1130, and 1151 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 318.00 August. Support is at 331.00, 329.00, and 326.00 August, and resistance is at 339.00, 344.00, and 351.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4660 and 4890 August. Support is at 3910, 3840, and 3790 August, with resistance at 3960, 4000, and 6050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on apparent short covering and new speculative buying even with ideas of increasing supplies. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was a little higher yesterday as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The daily charts show that Canola trends are down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 605.00, 599.00, and 591.00 November, with resistance at 632.00, 638.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3830, 3790, and 3770 October, with resistance at 3910, 3960, and 4100 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms mostly south and east. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 61 July 137 Sep
49 Sep
95 Aug

August 76 Sep 137 Sep 49 Sep 95 Nov

Sep 82 Sep 145 Sep 48 Sep 90 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 905.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 905.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 897.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 907.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 907.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 900.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 882.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 890.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 905.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 847.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,030.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 338.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.662)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 109,532 lots, or 4.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,526 4,551 4,518 4,521 4,542 4,532 -10 83,631 111,980
Nov-24 4,464 4,491 4,453 4,454 4,481 4,468 -13 7,795 19,381
Jan-25 4,421 4,455 4,421 4,426 4,437 4,438 1 15,811 42,870
Mar-25 4,397 4,429 4,393 4,397 4,407 4,409 2 1,828 3,656
May-25 4,423 4,452 4,422 4,426 4,433 4,436 3 417 2,845
Jul-25 4,423 4,448 4,410 4,410 4,422 4,425 3 50 61
Corn
Turnover: 665,556 lots, or 15.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,379 2,394 2,379 2,388 2,379 2,386 7 438,893 772,576
Nov-24 2,319 2,343 2,316 2,332 2,314 2,329 15 109,289 303,976
Jan-25 2,307 2,323 2,304 2,308 2,302 2,312 10 82,245 288,839
Mar-25 2,302 2,319 2,302 2,308 2,305 2,311 6 22,010 66,739
May-25 2,352 2,367 2,351 2,356 2,348 2,359 11 2,332 8,437
Jul-25 2,363 2,377 2,358 2,359 2,355 2,365 10 10,787 5,024
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,012,940 lots, or 94.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 3,053 3,165 3,053 3,088 3,071 3,102 31 25,152 43,117
Sep-24 3,088 3,186 3,083 3,111 3,093 3,131 38 2,173,390 1,459,391
Nov-24 3,125 3,220 3,121 3,149 3,133 3,167 34 76,523 447,002
Dec-24 3,175 3,255 3,170 3,197 3,181 3,208 27 8,295 49,060
Jan-25 3,164 3,250 3,161 3,190 3,174 3,200 26 528,176 775,641
Mar-25 3,018 3,097 3,012 3,053 3,023 3,054 31 15,036 55,381
May-25 2,942 3,008 2,938 2,965 2,951 2,972 21 172,596 571,482
Jul-25 2,955 3,020 2,952 2,975 2,970 2,984 14 13,772 12,507
Palm Oil
Turnover: 847,830 lots, or 66.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 7,800 7,978 7,800 7,890 7,792 7,900 108 598 1,336
Sep-24 7,794 7,954 7,786 7,878 7,766 7,874 108 748,960 402,614
Oct-24 7,726 7,866 7,724 7,802 7,708 7,796 88 2,137 3,379
Nov-24 7,684 7,816 7,684 7,764 7,676 7,758 82 476 478
Dec-24 7,704 7,772 7,698 7,736 7,632 7,728 96 115 286
Jan-25 7,632 7,758 7,632 7,718 7,628 7,704 76 85,056 233,363
Feb-25 7,632 7,720 7,632 7,672 7,632 7,666 34 86 320
Mar-25 7,624 7,724 7,624 7,658 7,624 7,674 50 174 2,574
Apr-25 7,656 7,698 7,630 7,652 7,610 7,670 60 119 227
May-25 7,610 7,664 7,580 7,620 7,608 7,630 22 10,088 41,108
Jun-25 7,620 7,628 7,560 7,574 7,582 7,594 12 17 169
Jul-25 7,630 7,630 7,578 7,578 7,602 7,602 0 4 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 490,179 lots, or 37.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 7,572 7,638 7,558 7,592 7,560 7,592 32 1,501 12,885
Sep-24 7,590 7,682 7,584 7,630 7,594 7,634 40 389,827 586,307
Nov-24 7,612 7,674 7,592 7,630 7,602 7,632 30 4,257 18,950
Dec-24 7,698 7,760 7,688 7,714 7,688 7,722 34 91 1,610
Jan-25 7,672 7,754 7,668 7,714 7,682 7,714 32 85,535 291,573
Mar-25 7,568 7,628 7,562 7,604 7,574 7,590 16 398 3,216
May-25 7,482 7,546 7,482 7,530 7,494 7,522 28 8,548 86,901
Jul-25 7,470 7,498 7,470 7,488 7,484 7,484 0 22 13
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322