Softs Report 07/01/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week but gave back much of the gains of the week on a poor weekly export sales report and more planted Cotton area. USDA said that area planted to all Cotton is 11.670 million acres, about 0one million more than reported in March Big storms were reported in southern Texas in recent weeks that could damage crops. There are also some big problems with too much sun and no rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent weeks. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News: ICE said that 11 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 132 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.00, 71.20, and 70.00 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 25, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 239,479
: Positions :
: 27,457 74,050 52,192 61,993 86,407 85,960 13,291 227,603 225,939: 11,877 13,540
: Changes from: June 18, 2024 (Change in open interest: -2,690) :
: 507 -4,342 407 -4,318 1,522 1,320 38 -2,084 -2,375: -606 -315
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 30.9 21.8 25.9 36.1 35.9 5.5 95.0 94.3: 5.0 5.7
: Total Traders: 300 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 98 80 54 54 47 21 227 210:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and generally remained within the current trading range. The daily charts show that the market is trying to form a bottom. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 410.00, 403.00, and 384.00 September, with resistance at 432.00, 440.00, and 457.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 25, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,443 :
: Positions :
: 1,785 7,934 967 0 81 2,714 327 108 1,850 511 2,520 :
: Changes from: June 18, 2024 :
: -796 -571 -15 0 -165 -92 10 -34 115 -164 -1,538 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 63.8 7.8 0.0 0.6 21.8 2.6 0.9 14.9 4.1 20.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 7 7 5 0 . 18 . . 15 6 10 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little higher last week and London closed a little lower as London faded from contract high resistance areas on the charts but as more reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market and forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam are still heard. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam recently to help crops there. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest but the main focus is on the terrible conditions in Vietnam. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 224.77 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 80 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 618 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 220.00, 217.00, and 212.00 September, and resistance is at 236.00, 238.00 and 241.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4960, 3820, and 3740 July, with resistance at 4300, 4390, and 4450 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 25, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 249,662
: Positions :
: 60,617 12,904 69,978 50,152 148,980 60,886 12,802 241,634 244,664: 8,029 4,998
: Changes from: June 18, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,372) :
: 2,726 -1,666 3,988 1,498 5,250 -2 907 8,209 8,479: 163 -106
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.3 5.2 28.0 20.1 59.7 24.4 5.1 96.8 98.0: 3.2 2.0
: Total Traders: 384 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 128 66 93 96 129 49 20 310 274:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental but as world supplies remain rather tight. Ideas are that July deliveries will be large. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. End users need Sugar but are not finding too much available in the cash market. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather, but now the cry weather is causing concern about developing Sugarcane in center south areas. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 21,277 notices were posted for delivery against July futures this morning.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2070 and 2170 October. Support is at 1970, 1920, and 1880 October and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2140 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 575.00 and 600.00 October. Support is at 550.00, 550.00, and 528.00 October, with resistance at 581.00, 590.00, and 599.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 25, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 944,816
: Positions :
: 77,752 113,565 191,130 365,832 511,767 234,601 59,505 869,316 875,967: 75,500 68,849
: Changes from: June 18, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,657) :
: -712 -13,259 695 -10,220 19,806 2,210 -2,921 -8,027 4,320: 1,369 -10,978
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 12.0 20.2 38.7 54.2 24.8 6.3 92.0 92.7: 8.0 7.3
: Total Traders: 239 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 57 74 66 68 40 21 201 187:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week on continued speculative long liquidation and chart trends are turning down. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 912 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 913 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 6970, 6420, and 6000 September, with resistance at 8000, 8130, and 8670 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5790, 5350, and 4920 September, with resistance at 6810, 7420, and 7940 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 25, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 220,653
: Positions :
: 22,884 13,365 95,091 60,779 93,627 30,459 13,010 209,213 215,093: 11,440 5,560
: Changes from: June 18, 2024 (Change in open interest: -16,117) :
: -3,878 187 -10,892 1,385 -2,651 -2,239 -2,357 -15,624 -15,713: -493 -404
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 6.1 43.1 27.5 42.4 13.8 5.9 94.8 97.5: 5.2 2.5
: Total Traders: 168 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 40 71 35 33 31 18 154 131:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322