Grains Report 05/28/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets on adverse world growing conditions. There were no more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. In addition, Ukraine sent drones to several Russian ports, including grains ports, to disrupt the export pace and cost Russia money. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 676, 647, and 632 July, with resistance at 706, 712, and 717 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 685, 660, and 640 July, with resistance at 728, 734, and 740 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 729, 710, and 700 July, and resistance is at 758, 764, and 770 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 515,075
: Positions :
: 50,167 118,139 181,194 78,258 117,852 171,724 54,948 481,343 472,133: 33,732 42,942
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: 23,063) :
: 5,351 4,175 17,646 285 -2,582 -3,004 1,816 20,278 21,054: 2,785 2,009
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 22.9 35.2 15.2 22.9 33.3 10.7 93.5 91.7: 6.5 8.3
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 87 102 124 92 103 47 34 303 296:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 273,573
: Positions :
: 24,396 63,260 73,963 64,040 92,781 94,025 19,190 256,425 249,193: 17,148 24,380
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,165) :
: 2,994 3,349 831 3,263 -2,185 -1,450 2,052 5,640 4,047: 526 2,118
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 23.1 27.0 23.4 33.9 34.4 7.0 93.7 91.1: 6.3 8.9
: Total Traders: 229 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 50 60 69 76 41 27 189 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 54,024 :
: Positions :
: 23,073 29,928 3,991 385 168 10,145 5,966 3,105 2,106 244 2,455 :
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 :
: 947 2,692 208 60 -228 601 -805 311 -104 -21 -236 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.7 55.4 7.4 0.7 0.3 18.8 11.0 5.7 3.9 0.5 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 94 :
: 49 40 5 . . 11 12 8 8 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week on speculative selling tied to weaker demand ideas. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range but at the low end of the range. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1873, 1900, and 1918 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,321 :
: Positions :
: 3,938 8,079 188 0 0 1,897 405 78 1,552 35 648 :
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 :
: 243 440 0 0 0 -44 -5 73 107 -2 -20 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.2 78.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 18.4 3.9 0.8 15.0 0.3 6.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 18 19 . 0 0 10 . . 9 4 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher last week with Corn higher on the back of strong weekly export sales released Thursday. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet and more rain is coming to cause planting delays but to allow for rapid development of planted crops. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is a driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News: Mexico bought 215,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 450, 444, and 440 July, and resistance is at 467, 475, and 483 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 362, 357, and 350 July, and resistance is at 383, 390, and 403 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,993,404
: Positions :
: 156,822 289,698 627,879 502,874 642,413 513,464 198,990 1,801,039 1,758,980: 192,365 234,424
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: 19,600) :
: -3,252 23,232 4,239 20,456 -16,535 -2,639 10,497 18,804 21,432: 796 -1,832
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 14.5 31.5 25.2 32.2 25.8 10.0 90.3 88.2: 9.7 11.8
: Total Traders: 791 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 156 138 208 356 353 52 38 666 653:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher last week on reports of reduced offers and higher basis levels from South America. Soybean Oil closed a little lower. The weekly export sales report showed less than expected demand for US Soybeans. There were wire reports that China had bought two to four cargos of US Soybeans in recent days. Brazil basis levels are very strong and US products now compare favorably in price to those from South America. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1231, 1220, and 1210 July, and resistance is at 1256, 1260, and 1266 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 365.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 388.00, 390.00, and 396.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4470, 4470, and 4420 July, with resistance at 4690, 4780, and 4880 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,006,051
: Positions :
: 61,637 130,607 302,464 363,171 431,161 214,937 59,374 942,210 923,607: 63,842 82,445
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: 39,915) :
: 5,881 -10,043 15,871 7,466 31,160 9,340 2,184 38,557 39,172: 1,358 743
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.1 13.0 30.1 36.1 42.9 21.4 5.9 93.7 91.8: 6.3 8.2
: Total Traders: 570 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 153 192 189 214 49 29 472 478:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 588,606
: Positions :
: 55,480 128,614 138,989 192,499 257,053 166,961 36,185 553,928 560,841: 34,678 27,765
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: -2,413) :
: -276 -13,955 680 -3,076 14,005 -260 -1,790 -2,931 -1,060: 519 -1,353
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 21.9 23.6 32.7 43.7 28.4 6.1 94.1 95.3: 5.9 4.7
: Total Traders: 338 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 92 105 93 92 45 23 272 259:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 529,615
: Positions :
: 107,298 50,749 119,070 112,715 310,016 133,499 20,132 472,582 499,967: 57,032 29,648
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 (Change in open interest: -4,915) :
: 2,260 1,217 -4,870 -3,578 -483 208 -1,560 -5,979 -5,696: 1,065 781
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.3 9.6 22.5 21.3 58.5 25.2 3.8 89.2 94.4: 10.8 5.6
: Total Traders: 338 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 72 88 112 122 42 22 277 263:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on Chicago Soybean Oil price action and despite ideas of increasing production. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are turning mixed on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was also lower last week on reports of generally good conditions in Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 688.00 and 723.00 July. Support is at 655.00, 646.00, and 639.00 July, with resistance at 673.00, 678.00, and 684.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3820, and 3760 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4210 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 48,690 :
: Positions :
: 38,170 15,650 1,050 17,590 50 480 2,810 80 1,240 4,890 7,610 :
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 :
: -440 -20 0 360 0 0 80 0 340 -520 200 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.4 32.1 2.2 36.1 0.1 1.0 5.8 0.2 2.5 10.0 15.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 8 10 . 4 . . . . . 7 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 21, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 266,443 :
: Positions :
: 196,795 134,575 5,212 10,123 1,659 7,074 64,545 33,372 11,216 10,500 9,478 :
: Changes from: May 14, 2024 :
: 8,222 4,885 25 751 -310 -1,209 -519 6,203 -1,199 587 2,156 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 73.9 50.5 2.0 3.8 0.6 2.7 24.2 12.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 321 :
: 59 60 4 5 6 27 63 27 61 74 46 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian pworts
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 875.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 880.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 880.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 885.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 890.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 830.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3980.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 291.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.693)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 125,076 lots, or 5.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,647 4,666 4,637 4,654 4,658 4,648 -10 96,909 103,792
Sep-24 4,655 4,655 4,621 4,628 4,643 4,631 -12 21,944 48,475
Nov-24 4,584 4,595 4,576 4,583 4,597 4,583 -14 1,085 7,106
Jan-25 4,575 4,582 4,563 4,572 4,586 4,573 -13 4,276 13,313
Mar-25 4,574 4,577 4,559 4,566 4,582 4,568 -14 285 1,179
May-25 4,604 4,617 4,585 4,596 4,608 4,600 -8 577 444
Corn
Turnover: 528,844 lots, or 12.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,457 2,457 2,446 2,450 2,453 2,451 -2 314,611 531,998
Sep-24 2,475 2,484 2,471 2,476 2,476 2,476 0 156,749 502,955
Nov-24 2,427 2,433 2,423 2,428 2,427 2,427 0 18,664 226,306
Jan-25 2,416 2,422 2,415 2,417 2,418 2,417 -1 25,442 155,546
Mar-25 2,424 2,431 2,422 2,427 2,425 2,427 2 13,161 32,317
May-25 2,465 2,469 2,464 2,465 2,468 2,466 -2 217 789
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,779,175 lots, or 63.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,469 3,500 3,428 3,439 3,480 3,468 -12 34,047 96,750
Aug-24 3,575 3,606 3,535 3,541 3,579 3,574 -5 16,383 88,161
Sep-24 3,588 3,621 3,550 3,560 3,599 3,589 -10 1,515,711 2,193,956
Nov-24 3,614 3,641 3,576 3,587 3,614 3,610 -4 36,064 413,646
Dec-24 3,572 3,591 3,539 3,540 3,578 3,561 -17 1,683 40,963
Jan-25 3,519 3,544 3,489 3,494 3,528 3,520 -8 143,227 360,683
Mar-25 3,353 3,376 3,346 3,351 3,355 3,363 8 4,806 29,656
May-25 3,189 3,200 3,181 3,189 3,198 3,193 -5 27,254 84,265
Palm Oil
Turnover: 968,099 lots, or 74.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 7,660 7,938 7,660 7,854 7,686 7,792 106 619 785
Jul-24 7,622 7,830 7,612 7,786 7,632 7,760 128 9,712 8,834
Aug-24 7,586 7,812 7,586 7,770 7,614 7,728 114 323 1,034
Sep-24 7,598 7,824 7,598 7,774 7,622 7,738 116 885,473 601,437
Oct-24 7,598 7,816 7,596 7,756 7,630 7,744 114 338 516
Nov-24 7,652 7,828 7,652 7,766 7,620 7,768 148 162 631
Dec-24 7,648 7,832 7,648 7,770 7,636 7,746 110 258 397
Jan-25 7,632 7,858 7,626 7,792 7,648 7,778 130 70,175 109,534
Feb-25 7,676 7,854 7,676 7,784 7,658 7,786 128 57 143
Mar-25 7,676 7,840 7,674 7,788 7,660 7,766 106 256 1,383
Apr-25 7,684 7,852 7,684 7,816 7,678 7,776 98 26 163
May-25 7,638 7,822 7,638 7,786 7,632 7,742 110 700 769
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 802,029 lots, or 64.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,830 8,012 7,828 7,976 7,858 7,952 94 9,241 15,727
Aug-24 7,922 8,084 7,892 8,052 7,930 8,014 84 585 26,998
Sep-24 7,948 8,142 7,944 8,106 7,974 8,072 98 715,026 824,079
Nov-24 7,970 8,138 7,964 8,116 7,982 8,074 92 982 6,995
Dec-24 8,032 8,182 8,032 8,182 8,048 8,122 74 78 1,699
Jan-25 8,018 8,200 8,016 8,174 8,048 8,142 94 73,806 172,174
Mar-25 7,876 8,000 7,876 7,976 7,890 7,940 50 208 3,329
May-25 7,770 7,918 7,768 7,902 7,788 7,850 62 2,103 5,216
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322