MAY WASDE EVE. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/09/2024

We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 12:00 P.M.,  and Fed Daly Speech at 1:00 P.M.

Plantings are resuming in the Plains & W Midwest. The EU/GFS models are at odds over exact precipitation intensity and location into May 18^th . Both have trended wetter across the Delta/Southeast and Southern Midwest in the past 24 hours. Fortunately warmer temperatures will boost evaporation rates and planting resumes this weekend across the Central Plains and Midwest. Progress will be more challenged east of the Mississippi River, in LA, AR, MS, TN, and KY. There’s a risk of late seeding dates in the south and east. Ag Resources (ARC) believes the relatively drier EU solution based on recent model performance. Favorably dry weather persist across the Central Plains & MN into May  16^th . A window opens in the East Midwest May 11-15 before light and continuous showers return to WI, IL, IN, and OH. 6-10 day totals in the East Midwest are projected in a range of .75-2.50”. Locally heavier amounts are possible in KY, TN, and Southern IN. Additionally, unwanted soaking showers resume across the Delta Region, where fields are already waterlogged. NOAA’s 7-day precipitation is across N IA & N IL. What could be a wildcard on the USDA could be the corn stunt disease in Argentina could be a bullish factor as well as historic rains in the Mato Grosso do Sul region could be thrown in the mix for a WASDE drop in South American corn production estimates. Both Argentine commodity exchanges are close in Argentine corn crop size at 46.5-47.5 MMT’s a drop from 50 MMT’s. Argentine farmers and private analysts fear future cuts as the harvest gathers steam in yield losses are more accurately assessed. Private Argentine corn crop estimates range from 44-46.0 MMT’s  for the final Argentine crop, which is well below mid-season estimates that were as high as 57-59 MMT’s. Most traders do expect bearish data focusing on new crop US and World balance sheets. Remember Brazil’s CONAB will not release their May crop estimates until Tuesday. And most of Europe & South America is on holiday. Also, tomorrows Commitment of Traders data will have an interesting spin to see if managed funds pile on more sizable shorts ahead of Tuesday’s CONAB data release.

Have A Great Trading Day!