Softs Report 04/12/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday n response to the USDA reports. The export sales report showed poor dales once again. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but id cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. USDA said that 10.7 on acres might get planted this year, from 10.2 million last year. It is too early to plant in The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 86.00, 83.20, and 77.20 May. Support is at 86.10, 85.60, and 82.90 May, with resistance of 88.20, 91.30 and 92.90 May.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
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2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Mar Apr
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Million Acres
Planted 11.21 13.75 10.23 10.23
Harvested 10.26 7.29 7.06 7.06
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 820 953 822 822
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.15 4.05 4.25 4.25
Production 17.52 14.47 12.10 12.10
Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 20.68 18.52 16.36 16.36
Domestic Use 2.55 2.05 1.75 1.75
Exports, Total 14.48 12.77 12.30 12.30
Use, Total 17.03 14.82 14.05 14.05
Unaccounted 2/ -0.40 -0.55 -0.20 -0.20
Ending Stocks 4.05 4.25 2.50 2.50
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 91.4 84.8 77.0 76.0
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WASDE – 647 – 18 April 2024

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
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Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
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2023/24 Proj.
World
Mar 82.97 112.96 43.23 112.94 43.26 -0.40 83.34
Apr 82.61 112.92 43.94 112.82 43.97 -0.40 83.08
World Less China
Mar 45.56 85.46 30.33 75.44 43.21 -0.40 43.09
Apr 45.20 85.42 29.74 74.82 43.92 -0.40 42.02
United States
Mar 4.25 12.10 0.01 1.75 12.30 -0.20 2.50
Apr 4.25 12.10 0.01 1.75 12.30 -0.20 2.50
Total Foreign
Mar 78.72 100.86 43.23 111.19 30.96 -0.20 80.84
Apr 78.36 100.82 43.93 111.07 31.67 -0.20 80.58
Major Exporters 4/
Mar 29.89 57.91 1.73 33.13 26.36 -0.20 30.24
Apr 29.58 57.91 1.68 33.12 27.01 -0.20 29.24
Major Importers 8/
Mar 45.87 39.54 38.99 74.23 2.78 0.00 47.39
Apr 45.82 39.51 39.67 74.11 2.83 0.00 48.06
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WASDE – 647 – 28 April 2024

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down yesterday and remains in a trading range. The move came in reaction to the latest USDA reports that showed less production, but not much less as the trade had expected. Florida production is now estimated at 18.8 million boxes, from 19.8 million last month. Reports of tight supplies are around. Florida said that Oranges production will be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet, so a range trade has been seen. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 353.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.

Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is
2.73 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 7 percent
from the 2022-2023 revised utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
18.8 million boxes (846,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous
forecast but up 19 percent from last season’s revised utilization. In
Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
up 11 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (540,000 tons), is down 8 percent from
the previous forecast but up 24 percent from last season’s revised
utilization.
The California all orange forecast is 46.0 million boxes (1.84 million tons),
is unchanged from previous forecast but up 3 percent from last season’s
revised utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is
38.0 million boxes (1.52 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast
but up 5 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The California
Valencia orange forecast is 8.00 million boxes (320,000 tons), unchanged from
the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season’s revised
utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.10 million boxes
(47,000 tons) up 16 percent from the previous forecast but down 3 percent

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher and both show up trends on the daily and weekly charts. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market continues to support futures. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. There were some indications that Vietnam producers were now offering a little Coffee, but not much and not nearly enough to satisfy demand. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is starting now.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 213.47 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 223.00 and 230.00 May. Support is at 214.00, 210.00, and 208.00 May, and resistance is at 222.00, 225.00 and 228.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3940 and 4090 May. Support is at 3760, 3700, and 3600 May, with resistance at 3910, 3940, and 3970 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2050 and 1950 July. Support is at 2040, 2010, and 1900 July and resistance is at 2100, 2150, and 2180 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 590.00 and 567.00 August. Support is at 595.00, 587.00, and 579.00 August, with resistance at 608.00, 617.00, and 620.00 August.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
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2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Mar Apr
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1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1705 1820 1843 1843
Production 2/ 9157 9250 9243 9215
Beet Sugar 5155 5187 5172 5144
Cane Sugar 4002 4063 4071 4071
Florida 1934 1985 2095 2095
Louisiana 1944 2001 1936 1936
Texas 124 76 40 40
Imports 3646 3614 3331 3417
TRQ 3/ 1579 1862 1750 1775
Other Program 4/ 298 141 200 288
Non-program 1769 1611 1381 1354
Mexico 1379 1156 666 499
High-tier tariff/other 390 455 715 855
Total Supply 14508 14685 14416 14474
Exports 29 82 160 198
Deliveries 12578 12589 12555 12555
Food 12470 12473 12450 12450
Other 5/ 107 116 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 171 0 0
Total Use 12688 12843 12715 12753
Ending Stocks 1820 1843 1701 1722
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 14.3 13.4 13.5
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Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
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Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
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1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2022/23 Est.
Mar 964 5224 285 4627 1011 835
Apr 964 5224 285 4627 1011 835
2023/24 Proj.
Mar 835 4747 494 4593 595 889
Apr 835 4572 575 4618 471 894
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WASDE – 647 – 17 April 2024

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London was higher yesterday and trends turned up in New York on the daily charts. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1,301 tons, down 26.7% from the previous year. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 11190 and 11890 May. Support is at 10000, 9630, and 9150 May, with resistance at 10800, 10920, and 11040 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 8250, 7900, and 7740 May, with resistance at 8700, 8840, and 8960 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322