Grains Report 03/19/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 18
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Mar 18, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 14, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/14/2024 03/07/2024 03/16/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 122 0 0 1,936 2,154
CORN 1,238,897 1,166,229 1,224,924 23,093,006 17,582,703
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 24 200
MIXED 0 0 0 73 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,994 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 192,459 65,325 94,495 3,823,792 914,662
SOYBEANS 686,181 784,853 719,875 35,766,875 44,063,711
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 4,109 2,408
WHEAT 302,302 466,967 375,271 13,740,403 16,287,055
Total 2,419,961 2,483,398 2,414,565 76,434,284 78,859,379
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly higher yesterday on reports of higher prices for Russian Wheat. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 527, 524, and 518 May, with resistance at 556, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 561, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 580, 594, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 641, 635, and 629 May, and resistance is at 660, 677, and 681 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday, and trends are still sideways in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It has turned colder in the US this week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1773, 1759, and 1751 May and resistance is at 1803, 1827, and 1845 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was and Oats closed lower, with Corn failing once again to take out the 440 May area on the charts. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices and a weaker US Dollar, but the Dollar as higher yesterday and could be turning the short term trends up. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 356, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 369, 374, and 376 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday ideas of weak export demand and on reports of increased selling from Brazil producers as the weather in Brazil became dry in northern areas again and as world demand for Brazil beans remained high. Brazil producers were taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil. Reports of stronger basis levels and great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1175, 1165, and 1153 May, and resistance is at 1206, 1214, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4880, 4960, and 5070 May. Support is at 4780, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 5000, 5050, and 5100 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on production problems in Southeast Asia and as the export pace is expected to really improve. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was higher on a stronger US Dollar and Weaker Canadian Dollar. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 632.00 and 662.00 May. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 594.00 May, with resistance at 638.00, 644.00, and 653.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 4200, 4120, and 4050 May, with resistance at 4300, 4330, and 4360 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

57 May 185 May 85 May 68 May

58 May 165 May 85 May 71 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 967.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 972.50 -12.50 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 955.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 895.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 955.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 805.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,350.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 303.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7345)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 124,418 lots, or 5.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,773 4,781 4,732 4,739 4,775 4,754 -21 98,541 115,970
Jul-24 4,759 4,759 4,715 4,721 4,741 4,733 -8 19,568 23,210
Sep-24 4,713 4,716 4,684 4,689 4,704 4,700 -4 5,745 18,507
Nov-24 4,650 4,661 4,636 4,641 4,651 4,648 -3 206 2,813
Jan-25 4,625 4,637 4,612 4,618 4,623 4,624 1 344 3,394
Mar-25 4,608 4,618 4,597 4,609 4,614 4,604 -10 14 33
Corn
Turnover: 789,158 lots, or 19.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,438 2,439 2,414 2,420 2,451 2,423 -28 634,865 898,248
Jul-24 2,464 2,464 2,441 2,447 2,473 2,449 -24 86,239 259,165
Sep-24 2,473 2,474 2,451 2,455 2,480 2,458 -22 53,292 208,914
Nov-24 2,438 2,438 2,415 2,418 2,439 2,423 -16 8,069 23,136
Jan-25 2,411 2,412 2,398 2,403 2,420 2,402 -18 6,282 18,485
Mar-25 2,410 2,428 2,402 2,405 2,419 2,409 -10 411 222
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,860,826 lots, or 61.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,271 3,301 3,266 3,287 3,290 3,281 -9 1,255,258 1,427,221
Jul-24 3,254 3,269 3,243 3,258 3,266 3,256 -10 61,954 85,842
Aug-24 3,308 3,315 3,296 3,305 3,312 3,306 -6 3,797 30,527
Sep-24 3,280 3,299 3,280 3,290 3,292 3,290 -2 433,270 1,095,766
Nov-24 3,265 3,288 3,262 3,276 3,268 3,279 11 16,852 42,318
Dec-24 3,290 3,309 3,282 3,299 3,287 3,299 12 1,838 10,542
Jan-25 3,265 3,292 3,260 3,281 3,267 3,280 13 86,871 226,729
Mar-25 3,225 3,241 3,218 3,226 3,219 3,230 11 986 2,363
Palm Oil
Turnover: 993,962 lots, or 80.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,258 8,356 8,234 8,288 8,338 8,292 -46 532 2,051
May-24 8,126 8,220 8,100 8,180 8,178 8,162 -16 834,396 478,421
Jun-24 7,954 8,038 7,934 7,998 8,006 7,986 -20 2,797 3,189
Jul-24 7,830 7,900 7,804 7,866 7,842 7,846 4 931 3,352
Aug-24 7,702 7,776 7,680 7,740 7,698 7,728 30 864 726
Sep-24 7,570 7,656 7,558 7,630 7,558 7,610 52 148,566 192,117
Oct-24 7,472 7,552 7,468 7,526 7,458 7,514 56 174 390
Nov-24 7,446 7,486 7,414 7,458 7,396 7,450 54 80 420
Dec-24 7,380 7,414 7,364 7,408 7,340 7,396 56 47 173
Jan-25 7,306 7,366 7,294 7,348 7,290 7,336 46 5,446 14,185
Feb-25 7,300 7,338 7,276 7,326 7,270 7,310 40 29 121
Mar-25 7,302 7,322 7,272 7,308 7,244 7,298 54 100 68
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 717,129 lots, or 55.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,860 7,898 7,772 7,820 7,860 7,834 -26 520,504 601,089
Jul-24 7,748 7,800 7,708 7,756 7,756 7,760 4 3,509 17,285
Aug-24 7,720 7,766 7,672 7,722 7,710 7,722 12 1,085 4,308
Sep-24 7,678 7,734 7,638 7,690 7,674 7,692 18 175,541 356,079
Nov-24 7,660 7,710 7,624 7,666 7,664 7,680 16 1,895 8,386
Dec-24 7,742 7,788 7,702 7,740 7,736 7,762 26 144 1,945
Jan-25 7,696 7,766 7,674 7,724 7,708 7,736 28 14,437 42,750
Mar-25 7,734 7,740 7,698 7,702 7,670 7,722 52 14 18
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322