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Does It All Come Down to Inflation? Manic Metals Report 11/10/2026

By On November 10, 2026 - 9:15 AM · In Manic Metals Report, Market Commentaries
 For metals, does it all come down to inflation? That’s what traders will be asking this morning, and you can understand why.
We not only get a slew of inflation data this week, we also have Fed officials talking tough. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking in London today ahead of the CPI, said he would still support a quarter-point rate hike in December even if October inflation improves. But if core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, he said a half-point hike “should be considered” at the December meeting. “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”
The October Consumer Price Index is due at 7:30 AM CT this morning. Economists surveyed by Reuters and Dow Jones expect the headline to rise 0.3% and the core, which leaves out food and energy, to rise 0.2%. Both would be slower than September’s 0.6% and 0.3% gains, but still too warm for a Fed that already has rates in the 3.75% to 4.00% range. Because of last year’s government shutdown, the Labor Department will not publish official year-over-year rates. Private estimates put those around 3.8% to 3.9% for the headline and 2.7% for the core. Producer prices follow Friday at 7:30 AM CT, and the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge is due Wednesday, November 25, at 7:30 AM CT. As of Monday night, markets were pricing roughly an 85% chance of a December hike.
So the inflation scare is real. Yet if you look at the metals, this does not look like a market that’s rolling over.
The seasonal setup is one silver traders can’t ignore. Silver and platinum still look like they want to break out. Yes, they’re giving a little back this morning ahead of the CPI, but the setup is what matters. Remember last year. Silver started its meteoric run in November, climbing from around $48 an ounce in early November 2025 to an all-time high of $121.62 by January 29. That’s more than a double in roughly three months, and it was seasonal as much as it was fundamental. Here we are in mid-November again, with December silver at $52.395, and the calendar is starting to rhyme.
Gold is pausing, not breaking down. December gold is at $4,084.90, down $29.60 after Monday’s bounce, and China is still buying. The World Gold Council said China added about 25.8 metric tons to its reserves in October, its largest monthly purchase in three years. Palladium is quietly gaining, with December up $7.50 at $1,029.00, comfortably above $1,000. January platinum, which rocked higher on Monday, is at $1,550.70. The bulls aren’t done probing.
India and China are still very much in the silver story. This isn’t just a chart story; the physical market still has plenty of fuel. The Silver Institute and Metals Focus say the silver market is headed for its sixth straight annual deficit in 2026, about 67 million ounces. Physical investment is forecast to jump 20% to 227 million ounces.
India is the one to watch. In 2025, Indian physical investment rose 33% to 79.2 million ounces, and that doesn’t even count an estimated 68.3 million ounces that flowed into silver exchange-traded products. Put them together and total Indian investment demand hit a record 147.6 million ounces. This year, licensing delays choked imports. India brought in only about 87 million ounces in the first nine months, down 32%. Then the floodgates started to open. Authorities issued import licenses for 6,500 tonnes, about 209 million ounces, over the next six months. Heraeus called that the removal of the key physical bottleneck and sees consumption rising through 2027. A license is not a purchase order, but when the world’s largest physical buyer gets the paperwork cleared, you pay attention.
China is in the game too. Physical investment there more than doubled to 11.9 million ounces in 2025, and Metals Focus sees another 6% rise this year, to 12.6 million ounces. China Customs data show silver ingot imports reached 1,066 tonnes, about 34 million ounces, through September, with September imports up 73.5% from August.
Copper has had to absorb a political scare over data centers. After last week’s midterms, Democrats who campaigned against data centers started talking about putting the brakes on the AI buildout. Senator Bernie Sanders called for a “national data center moratorium now.” In Texas, which Wells Fargo says holds 27% of planned data center capacity, Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa pledged a moratorium on new approvals until the legislature can write new rules. Shares tied to the AI trade sold off hard last week, and copper felt it.
Here’s the thing, though. You can rally against data centers at the ballot box, but you can’t legislate away the demand for the metal that makes the digital economy run. The sector that can still create economic growth, jobs, and tax revenue is AI, and its impact on metals over the next decade is going to be huge.
Don’t take my word for it. BHP has estimated that copper used in data centers worldwide will grow six-fold by 2050, from about half a million tonnes a year to around 3 million tonnes. The International Energy Agency, in its 2026 Critical Minerals Outlook, still sees a copper supply gap of about 25% in 2035, with copper adding about 7 million tonnes of demand by 2040. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper forecast to $14,700 a tonne and its 2027 average to $15,400, pointing to weaker mine supply. Even Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the AI data center buildout is “starting to look more just like old-fashioned demand overheating.”
The near-term copper fundamentals aren’t rolling over either. The Yangshan copper import premium in China recently hit a record $230 a tonne, and Shanghai futures inventories dropped more than 24% last week to 33,848 tonnes, the lowest since January 2024. December COMEX copper is at $6.3040 a pound, catching its breath after Monday’s bounce. That’s not a market that’s given up on the long-term bid.
The bottom line is that inflation will set the tone today, and Waller made sure nobody forgot that a hotter core number could put a half-point hike on the table in December. That’s the headline risk. The bigger story is that silver’s seasonal window is open again, Asia is still buying, and the AI buildout is a multi-year metals story that politics can slow but not erase. Watch this morning’s CPI, Friday’s PPI, and whether silver and platinum can hold this week’s bounce and push through.
 Remember that the  Democrats’ sweep in last week’s midterms put a scare into the copper market, because traders worried the new majority could slow or even kill the AI data center boom.
 Several Democrats ran against data centers, and since the election the talk has turned to policy. Senator Bernie Sanders called for a “national data center moratorium now.”  Of course his is he same guy that praised he Castro regime.
In Texas, which Wells Fargo says holds 27% of the country’s planned data center capacity, Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa pledged to freeze new approvals until the legislature writes new rules. AI-related stocks sold off hard last week, and copper, one of the market’s favorite ways to bet on the AI buildout, sold off with them.
The fear may be bigger than the reality. Politicians can slow permits, but they can’t wish away the power and wiring the digital economy needs. Data centers run on copper, and so do the grid upgrades needed to feed them. BHP expects data center copper use to grow six-fold by 2050.
 The IEA still sees a copper supply gap of about 25% by 2035, and Goldman Sachs just raised its forecasts to $14,700 a ton for the end of 2026 and $15,400 for 2027.
The physical market isn’t backing off either: China’s Yangshan import premium hit a record $230 a ton, and Shanghai inventories are at their lowest since January 2024. December copper is holding around $6.30 a pound. The election scare looks more like a shakeout than the end of the AI copper story, and dips driven by politics could turn out to be buying opportunities.
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Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report and Manic Metals Report

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