We’ve all heard the phrase correlation doesn’t equal causation. That likely relates here. The bear run in the ag markets have made October and the first week of November a tough one. At the same time the prospects for the Nebraska football season took a very similar turn, losing the last three in just an absolute grind of a heartbreak fashion. At this point it just par for the course, and thank you for being part of my weekly therapy session. At some point the tides will turn, and while we hope that’s this week, we’ll just have to wait. As for the ags, lets hope hitting some previous lows from earlier this year provides some buyers a chance to come in. And just in time for another set of USDA reports…
Corn extended their weakness this week, as December was down 6 ¼ cents. Buyers were active this week, with daily announcements totaling 1.687 MMT for 2026/27, with sales for 2027/28 at 597,360 MT. Monday’s Crop Progress data had the US corn harvest at just 74% complete as of November 1, now lagging average by 3 points. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production increasing another 25,000 barrels in the week of 10/30 at 1.143 million barrels per day. Stocks saw a draw of 89,000 barrels in that week 24.434 milli2on barrels. Grain Crushing data showed 438.4 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in September, 0.65% above last year, and down 8.5% month/month. Export Sales data from the week of October 29 showed a total of 1.295 MMT of 2026/27, backing off the from the week prior. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds flipping to a net short of 22,900 contracts, on a move of 78,843 contracts to the short side.
The wheat complex extended the losses across the three exchanges this week, pushing the bear run for another week. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 12 1/4 cents, with KC hard red winter futures falling 11 3/4 cents in the December contract. HRS futures saw a 7 3/4 cent loss for December this week. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 83% complete as of last Sunday, 1 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Condition ratings were at 44% good/excellent in their first score, with the Brugler500 index at 327. The NASS Flour Milling report showed a total of 227 mbu of wheat ground for flour in July through September, 4.4 mbu shy of the same quarter last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 29 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 backing off from the previous a MY high to 538,028 MT. CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money in Chicago wheat futures and options adding another 13,867 contracts to their net short position as of Tuesday, holding a net short of 88,729 contracts. As of November 3rd, spec funds added to the fresh net short by 4,857 contracts to 6,722 contracts
Soybeans were under pressure this week with the January contract falling 40 ½ cents. December soybean meal fell $5.40 on the week, with December bean oil slipping another 364 points. Crop Progress data tallied 88% of the US soybean harvest complete by 11/1, now 4% ahead of average. NASS Fats & Oils data tallied 198.8 mbu of soybeans crushed in September, a 5.16% drop from last month and 2.99% below the same month in 2025. Soybean oil stocks were down 14.08% from last month to 1.457 billion lbs, a 17.58% a record low for the data set. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings backing off to 1.456 MMT in the week ending on October 29, slightly below the week prior. Weekly Commitment of Traders data indicated managed money slashing 52,601 contracts from their net long in soybean futures and options, taking it to 132,799 contracts in the week ending on Tuesday.
Cattle extended the downtrend this week, with the December contract falling $6.90. Cash trade was weaker this week, sales backed off to mostly $218, with a few late $215 in the South, with most Northern action at $214-216 and late sales at $210-212. November feeders were under pressure, down $15.45 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $13.15 on the week to $337.41. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $7.23. Choice boxes were down $3.87/cwt on the week to $360.79, as Select was up $1.58 to $353.56. Weekly beef production was down 1.5% from the week prior at 479.8 million lbs, which was also 5% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 4.9% above last year on a 7.1% drop in slaughter. Managed money held a net long position of 51,692 contracts as of Tuesday in live cattle futures and options, a reduction of 4,325 contracts. CFTC data showed speculators in feeder cattle futures and options cutting 2,051 contracts from their net long position as of 11/3 to 11,302 contracts.
The hog collapse continued this week as December was down $5.35 (9.09%). The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $4.44 this week at $62.86 as of November 4. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was higher this week, up 55 cents to $70.65/cwt, after hitting the lowest price since December 2020. The picnic, butt, and ham were the primals reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 2.5% from the week prior at 575.5 million lbs, which was 0.4% above the same week last year. Year to date production is down slightly on a 0.8% drop in slaughter. Weekly CFTC data tallied speculators adding 3,383 to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 11/3, taking it to a new record net short of 50,492 contracts.
Cotton was back up 128 points in the December contract for the week. Weekly Crop Progress data showed 63% of the US cotton crop harvested, 9 percentage points ahead of normal. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/29 saw sales build back up to 277,522 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 137,782 RB. The Adjusted World Price was back down 94 points to 63.57 cents/lb on Thursday. Managed money cut back another 3,042 contracts from their net long in the week of November 3, taking the position to 53,148 contracts.
Market Watch
Weekly Export Inspections data will be out on Monday morning, with the Crop Progress report released in the afternoon. Monthly Crop Production and WASDE data will be out on Tuesday, as well as CPI data in the morning. The government will be closed on Wednesday in honor of Veterans Day, with the weekly EIA report out on Thursday. Export Sales data will be released on Friday morning, as well as PPI data. November soybeans expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has been in a declining regression channel for nearly a month and a half. The upper boundary is at $4.44 ½, with the lower boundary at $4.21. The latter is below the previous contract low put in back in June. From a support standpoint, that is getting close. A lower Bollinger band is down at $4.32. Stochastics say the downtrend should be over, though they have been for the last 40 cents. A rising ADX at 52 says to watch the trend following MACD. That is still bearish, but losing momentum in a hurry. It has not flipped, but an up day or two could change that. That crossing and breaking above the upper reg channel boundary ($4.44 ½) could spark the end of the downtrend. Friday’s low at $4.38 ½ matches the Wednesday low and has the setup for a very short term double bottom. The bulls have their mission, they just need to follow through.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Weekly Therapy. Ag Marketing Report 11/09/2026
We’ve all heard the phrase correlation doesn’t equal causation. That likely relates here. The bear run in the ag markets have made October and the first week of November a tough one. At the same time the prospects for the Nebraska football season took a very similar turn, losing the last three in just an absolute grind of a heartbreak fashion. At this point it just par for the course, and thank you for being part of my weekly therapy session. At some point the tides will turn, and while we hope that’s this week, we’ll just have to wait. As for the ags, lets hope hitting some previous lows from earlier this year provides some buyers a chance to come in. And just in time for another set of USDA reports…
Corn extended their weakness this week, as December was down 6 ¼ cents. Buyers were active this week, with daily announcements totaling 1.687 MMT for 2026/27, with sales for 2027/28 at 597,360 MT. Monday’s Crop Progress data had the US corn harvest at just 74% complete as of November 1, now lagging average by 3 points. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production increasing another 25,000 barrels in the week of 10/30 at 1.143 million barrels per day. Stocks saw a draw of 89,000 barrels in that week 24.434 milli2on barrels. Grain Crushing data showed 438.4 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in September, 0.65% above last year, and down 8.5% month/month. Export Sales data from the week of October 29 showed a total of 1.295 MMT of 2026/27, backing off the from the week prior. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds flipping to a net short of 22,900 contracts, on a move of 78,843 contracts to the short side.
The wheat complex extended the losses across the three exchanges this week, pushing the bear run for another week. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 12 1/4 cents, with KC hard red winter futures falling 11 3/4 cents in the December contract. HRS futures saw a 7 3/4 cent loss for December this week. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 83% complete as of last Sunday, 1 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Condition ratings were at 44% good/excellent in their first score, with the Brugler500 index at 327. The NASS Flour Milling report showed a total of 227 mbu of wheat ground for flour in July through September, 4.4 mbu shy of the same quarter last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 29 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 backing off from the previous a MY high to 538,028 MT. CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money in Chicago wheat futures and options adding another 13,867 contracts to their net short position as of Tuesday, holding a net short of 88,729 contracts. As of November 3rd, spec funds added to the fresh net short by 4,857 contracts to 6,722 contracts
Soybeans were under pressure this week with the January contract falling 40 ½ cents. December soybean meal fell $5.40 on the week, with December bean oil slipping another 364 points. Crop Progress data tallied 88% of the US soybean harvest complete by 11/1, now 4% ahead of average. NASS Fats & Oils data tallied 198.8 mbu of soybeans crushed in September, a 5.16% drop from last month and 2.99% below the same month in 2025. Soybean oil stocks were down 14.08% from last month to 1.457 billion lbs, a 17.58% a record low for the data set. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings backing off to 1.456 MMT in the week ending on October 29, slightly below the week prior. Weekly Commitment of Traders data indicated managed money slashing 52,601 contracts from their net long in soybean futures and options, taking it to 132,799 contracts in the week ending on Tuesday.
Cattle extended the downtrend this week, with the December contract falling $6.90. Cash trade was weaker this week, sales backed off to mostly $218, with a few late $215 in the South, with most Northern action at $214-216 and late sales at $210-212. November feeders were under pressure, down $15.45 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $13.15 on the week to $337.41. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $7.23. Choice boxes were down $3.87/cwt on the week to $360.79, as Select was up $1.58 to $353.56. Weekly beef production was down 1.5% from the week prior at 479.8 million lbs, which was also 5% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 4.9% above last year on a 7.1% drop in slaughter. Managed money held a net long position of 51,692 contracts as of Tuesday in live cattle futures and options, a reduction of 4,325 contracts. CFTC data showed speculators in feeder cattle futures and options cutting 2,051 contracts from their net long position as of 11/3 to 11,302 contracts.
The hog collapse continued this week as December was down $5.35 (9.09%). The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $4.44 this week at $62.86 as of November 4. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was higher this week, up 55 cents to $70.65/cwt, after hitting the lowest price since December 2020. The picnic, butt, and ham were the primals reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 2.5% from the week prior at 575.5 million lbs, which was 0.4% above the same week last year. Year to date production is down slightly on a 0.8% drop in slaughter. Weekly CFTC data tallied speculators adding 3,383 to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 11/3, taking it to a new record net short of 50,492 contracts.
Cotton was back up 128 points in the December contract for the week. Weekly Crop Progress data showed 63% of the US cotton crop harvested, 9 percentage points ahead of normal. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/29 saw sales build back up to 277,522 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 137,782 RB. The Adjusted World Price was back down 94 points to 63.57 cents/lb on Thursday. Managed money cut back another 3,042 contracts from their net long in the week of November 3, taking the position to 53,148 contracts.
Market Watch
Weekly Export Inspections data will be out on Monday morning, with the Crop Progress report released in the afternoon. Monthly Crop Production and WASDE data will be out on Tuesday, as well as CPI data in the morning. The government will be closed on Wednesday in honor of Veterans Day, with the weekly EIA report out on Thursday. Export Sales data will be released on Friday morning, as well as PPI data. November soybeans expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has been in a declining regression channel for nearly a month and a half. The upper boundary is at $4.44 ½, with the lower boundary at $4.21. The latter is below the previous contract low put in back in June. From a support standpoint, that is getting close. A lower Bollinger band is down at $4.32. Stochastics say the downtrend should be over, though they have been for the last 40 cents. A rising ADX at 52 says to watch the trend following MACD. That is still bearish, but losing momentum in a hurry. It has not flipped, but an up day or two could change that. That crossing and breaking above the upper reg channel boundary ($4.44 ½) could spark the end of the downtrend. Friday’s low at $4.38 ½ matches the Wednesday low and has the setup for a very short term double bottom. The bulls have their mission, they just need to follow through.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.