Offense and Defense. The Energy Report 10/23/2026

It looks like the United States is going to go on offense and defense with reports that the US is getting ready to hit Iran hard and by using the Defense Production Act to increase American refining capacity which is desperately needed to produce more diesel and more gasoline. The order would allow the White House to use taxpayer money to support oil and gas projects and fast track any projects including pipelines in refineries that can move us forward of course this move really is undoing the nonsensical over regulation that we have seen in the past with all the green political agendas. And to trade it you have to go on offense defense.
The war fears are driving higher oil. A CNN report from Senate officials said the likelihood of renewed conflict with Iran would be short-term but intense, and that Trump advisers had prepared plans for strikes on Iran in coordination with Israel immediately upon President Trump’s approval.  This is coming as President Trump said the US crushed Iran, and may want to do it a “little more”.
Those concerns, along with continued attacks, are supporting prices yet crack spreads are lower. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $114.00 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $100.40, as Middle East hostilities remain front-page news for oil traders.
The focus has been on Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including Aramco facilities. Aramco ordered personnel evacuated from its headquarters in Dhahran in the Persian Gulf, suggesting the Yemeni Houthis have longer-distance capabilities than in previous attacks concentrated on the Red Sea and Saudi Red Sea ports. Adding further support to the rally, Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported the shutdown of a pipeline that feeds oil from two fields to the Zawya export terminal, prompting production cuts at those fields.
War fears could keep oil strong throughout the day heading into the weekend, unless compelling headlines change the outlook. But if nothing happens, prices could retreat sharply when trading resumes. West Texas Intermediate crude has struggled to hold above $100 a barrel consistently in recent memory. If events escalate, we could see a sharp rally followed by a pullback. Holding both puts and calls over the weekend may be the best approach; alternatively, a well-structured options position could pay off if you have a strong view of how the news will unfold.
And a well-structured nat gas option play could pay off if you have a pretty good view of how the weather will unfold. With that, you need the Fox Weather app. Fox Weather’s forecasts have not been encouraging for natural gas bulls. Yesterday’s EIA report showed a 77 Bcf injection for the week ending October 16, putting storage at 3,644 Bcf—152 Bcf below last year but 35 Bcf above the five-year average. It was in line with expectations and the 10th consecutive below-average build. November Nymex settled at $2.796 Thursday and is trading near $2.73 this morning, close to multi-month lows. Mild weather into early November is capping heating demand, outweighing lower production (near 111 Bcf/d) and solid LNG flows. More builds are likely before withdrawals begin, keeping the market on edge.
Fox Weather is reporting Parts of South Florida will see periods of torrential rain through the weekend, triggering a multiday flash flood threat as a tropically enhanced storm system stalls over the region. Additionally, any flooding along the coast will be compounded by King Tides, which are forecast to peak this weekend. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or just offshore Southeast Floridas urban corridor beginning Thursday. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood risk across a corridor from Jupiter through Miami on Thursday. This same corridor is under a Level 2 threat on Saturday, with a flash flood risk continuing through Sunday.
So, make sure you download that fox weather app to keep up with the latest on the weather swings you should also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network. Sign up for my willy popular trade levels and open an account by calling 888-264-665 or email at pflynn@pricegroup.com.