Softs Report 10/20/2026

DJ Trump Plans $8 Billion in Payments to Farmers — WSJ
By Patrick Thomas
The Trump administration plans to hand out another $8 billion in direct payments to U.S. farmers who face losses from market disruptions and high fuel costs.
President Trump announced the new round of farmer funding Monday at a campaign rally for Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who is in a heated campaign against a Democratic candidate in a race that political rating sites have called a tossup.
The planned payments under a U.S. Agriculture Department program come as America’s farmers are struggling with higher fuel prices from Trump’s war in Iran. Higher fertilizer prices and a recent drop in corn futures prices are also expected to drag on farmers’ profitability as they are in the middle of harvesting their crops. Diesel prices have also surged to more than $6 a gallon this year. Farmers rely on diesel for their equipment such as combines and tractors.
The creation of the Harvest Fuel Relief program comes two weeks before the midterm elections. Republicans with a usually loyal voting bloc of rural farmers are facing difficult races in states such as Iowa and Kansas as farmers sour on some of Trump’s policies.
During the rally, Trump touted his administration’s effort to support farmers, such as increasing the amount of biofuel from crops that must be blended into gasoline and diesel.
“And when the Republicans win, we will pass even more funding for our farmers,” Trump said at the rally. “We love our farmers.”
Government funding has played a bigger role in boosting farmer incomes over the past decade, running from trade war-related payouts during Trump’s first and second terms and rescue funding through the Covid-19 pandemic. More recently, checks are being sent to help farmers deal with low crop prices.
Before the creation of the new program, the Agriculture Department estimated that direct payments to farmers would hit $44 billion this year.
Write to Patrick Thomas at patrick.thomas@wsj.com

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was slightly higher yesterday on reports of some damage to crops and crop losses in the Delta. A hurricane hit southern areas over the previous weekend with some very heavy rains. Rain was also reported in Texas and north into Kansas last week and over the weekend to affect harvest operations. USDA last week showed that conditions are now 35% good to excellent. Progress shows that the crop was 41% harvested and 85% opening bolls. Forecasts and reports of dry conditions in Cotton areas continue for Texas, the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be warm in all areas.
Overnight News ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 14 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 79.30, 77.10, and 75.50 December, with resistance of 82.40, 84.00 and 85.30 December

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday as futures broke out from a very short term trading range. Price trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and mixed on the weekly charts. USDA said that the US oranges production is now estimated at 61.7 million boxes down from 63.5 million last year. Florida production was estimated at 10.0 million boxes, from 13 million last year. Showers are showing up in Florida and trees are recovering. The weather for the next crop is seasonal. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico and showers are developing in Brazil as the rainy season is starting on time.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 137.00, 135.00, and 132.00 September, with resistance at 152,00 156.00, and 159.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as Brazil is selling and exporting, but less than before. Brazil crops are looking better with rains but producers are holding back on sales due to recent price weakness. Trends are mixed to up in New York and are turning down in London. The Brazil harvest is almost over despite increased rains. Conditions are called good for next crop development, and the wet season is starting on time. Arabica has been boosted near term by quality concerns owing to excess El Nino-linked rains in Brazil and worries the weather pattern might cause dryness ahead. The next crop is developing in the rest of South America amid scattered to isolated showers. Indonesia is now about done with its harvest. Asian conditions are called good. Other world production conditions are generally good. Mexico is in good condition, but Central America has been dry. Premiums are now at or near record highs in Central America due to the drought.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 272.34 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 291.00, 284.00, and 278.00 December, and resistance is at 317.00, 322.00 and 329.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3340, 3260, and 3150 November, with resistance at 3670, 3890, and 3920 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets but the trends are trying to turn down. Drought in Brazil was a major concern but rains have returned to center-south regions. Refineries in the region are producing ethanol at the expense of Sugar. Indian production is less after hot and dry conditions and production in the rest of Asia could be hurt by El Nino weather. Higher world petroleum prices are supporting higher ethanol prices and could cause less Sugar to be produced. Brazilian production dropped 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1910, and 1840 March and resistance is 2130, 2140, and 2170 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 532.00, 517.00, and 510.00 December, with resistance at 567.00, 573.00, and 580.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London both closed aa little higher yesterday. Daily trends are turning down. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa but it has now turned dry for the next crop. Dry conditions in Ivory Coast have created concerns about the prospects for 2026/27 production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 has ensured that short-term supplies remain ample. Ivory Coast’s main crop is seen falling around 17% this season, according to a Reuters survey, while Ivorian farmers said that poor rainfall risks bringing the September-to-February main crop to an early end. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year but demand has started to increase. Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports stood at 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 5430, 5050, and 4990 December, with resistance at 6030, 6440, and 6670 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4060, 3790, and 3770 December, with resistance at 4510, 4620, and 4690 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322