I’ll be honest, Red runs in my blood. From my red hair, to learning to drive on an old Farmall M, growing up in Case IH equipment, and chanting “Go Big Red” on college football Saturdays. However, there is one shade of red that we don’t always love. Corn bulls found that out on Friday, with sharp losses across the front months on an unexpected yield hike. Who knows, maybe it was a foreshadowing look to the a big matchup in Lincoln, NE this Saturday, although the Hoosiers are also a shade of red. Scarlet and Crimson is this matchup and to all the Hoosiers, Good Luck and GBR!
Corn continued their weakness, as December is nearly 70 cents off the contract high, falling 18 cents on the week. Crop Production data showed US corn yield at 181.2 bpa, up 2.7 bpa from the September report, with production 234 mbu higher at 16.034 bbu. New crop stocks were raised by 282 mbu to 1.849 bbu. The weekly Crop Progress data showed 23% of the US corn harvest complete as of October 4, now lagging average by 4 points. Condition ratings were down 3% this week at 54% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index slipping 5 points at 342. EIA showed ethanol production back up 46,000 barrels in the week of 10/2 at 1.053 million barrels per day. Stocks were back down 122,000 barrels in that week 23.743 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of just 769,468 MT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 10/1, back up from the week prior. CFTC data showed managed money cutting back 60,491 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options, as of October 6, to 377,850 contracts.
The wheat complex across the three exchanges this week. CBT soft red winter futures fell another 12 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 16 cents in the December contract. HRS futures were just 2 ¾ cents in the red. USDA’s monthly WASDE update showed US wheat stocks up 23 mbu to 740 mbu. World stocks were trimmed by 0.25 MMT to 276.04 MMT. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 36% complete as of last Sunday, 10 percentage points behind last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 1 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 451,562 MT, the second largest total in the marketing year. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money adding another 7,873 contracts to their net short in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday, to 29,543 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat cutting back from their net long by another 6,670 contracts, at 24,040 contracts as of October 6.
Soybeans held up this week with November seeing a 13 ¾ cent gaoin. December soybean meal was back up $18.10 on the week, with December bean oil posting a 60 point loss. Monthly Crop Production data showed US yield at 53.1 bpa, up 0.3 bpa from the previous estimate. That took the production estimate 27 mbu higher to 4.562 bbu. US soybean ending stocks were up 5 mbu to 315 mbu. Buyers were quieter again this week, with just 104,000 MT sold via daily announcements to unknown destinations. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean harvest at 25% by 10/4, now 7% behind the average. The window opened up this week. Crop ratings were steady at 57% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index down 2 points to 350. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at just 549,377 MT in the week ending on October 1. CFTC data from Friday showed managed money adding back to their net long in soybean futures and options by 10,496 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday to 251,660 contracts.
Cattle continued saw a breakout this week with December up $6.12 this week, mainly on Friday. Cash trade was reported at $220 in the North per USDA, with Fed Cattle Exchange sales at $223-227 on Friday. November feeders also broke out, with a $9.22 gain since the previous Friday.The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up just 21 e ts week/week to $337.07Wholesale boxed beef prices were slightly lower this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowing to $19.05. Choice boxes was down 84 cents/cwt on the week to $373.35, as Select was down 19 cents to $354.30. Weekly beef production was back down 3.1% from the week prior at 471.9 million lbs, which was also 3.4% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 5.2% above last year on a 7.4% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money trimming 384 contracts from their net long position in the week of October 6, taking the net long in live cattle to 50,920 contracts. In feeders, specs were adding 1,149 contracts to a net long of 8,787 contracts.
Hogs continued their weaker trend, with December falling another $2.82 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $2.30 this week at $78.41 as of October 7. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continues to face pressure, with this week’s losses at $3.98 to $80.50/cwt. The rib was the only primal reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 3.3% from the week prior at 562.4 million lbs, which was 1.1% from the same week last year. Year to date production is steady on a 0.9% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money taking their net short position in lean hog futures and options to another record in the week of 10/6, an reduction of 8,914 contracts, taking the net short to 35,272 contracts.
Cotton posted gains of 166 points in the December contract. Cotton Ginnings data from Friday showed a 487,900 RB of cotton ginned in the last two weeks of September, with the marketing year total at 917,150 RB. Crop Production data raised yield by 14 lbs/ac to 790 lbs. That added another 240,000 bales to production at 13.44 million bales. US ending stocks via the WASDE were up 200,000 bale to 3.8 million. Crop Progress data showed 23% of the US cotton crop harvested, 2 percentage points ahead of normal. Condition ratings were down 2 percentage points at 33% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 4 to 290. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/1 saw sales slip back to 165,070 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 161,588 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 135 points to 63.81 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of October 6 by 10,756 contracts, taking the position to 63,837 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with a federal holiday, as Columbus Day will give the government a day off. The markets will remain open. That will push back the Export Inspections report to Tuesday morning, with the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. Monthly CPI data will be released on Wednesday, which is also expiration day for October lean hogs futures and options, as well as October soybean meal and oil. The EIA report will be released on Thursday morning, with PPI data released that morning. NOPA crush data will also be released on Thursday morning. The Export Sales report will be pushed back to Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn is on life support. After a debilitating 173 mbu of corn was added to the old crop carryout at the end of September, USDA piled on another 234 mbu to the 2026 production tally. The previously record length in the corn market did not approve and have been liquidating for the last 70 cents. After holding near $5, with bulls hopeful the 173 mbu could be offset a yield cut, they threw in the towel. The Elliot wave pattern we have been watching is not completely invalidated but is within 20 cents of it and wave 5 becoming less likely without an upside catalyst. USDA won’t be the answer, at least for another month. Now, not all hope is lost, as there have been plenty of bearish USDA reports in the past couple years the market faded. Stochastics would give the bulls that hope, as they are crossing in oversold. The 200-day moving average was also spiked on Friday at $4.79 ¼ and held at the close after rallying a dime off the lows. If bulls fail to buy that to start the week, it would suggest a bigger test of at least the 61.8% Fib retracement support at $4.73, with nothing else to hold until the $4.50s (78.6% at $4.52 ¼). Any pushback from the bulls mean a retest of $5, though we need more fuel.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Wrong Shade of Red. Ag Marketing Report 10/12/2026
I’ll be honest, Red runs in my blood. From my red hair, to learning to drive on an old Farmall M, growing up in Case IH equipment, and chanting “Go Big Red” on college football Saturdays. However, there is one shade of red that we don’t always love. Corn bulls found that out on Friday, with sharp losses across the front months on an unexpected yield hike. Who knows, maybe it was a foreshadowing look to the a big matchup in Lincoln, NE this Saturday, although the Hoosiers are also a shade of red. Scarlet and Crimson is this matchup and to all the Hoosiers, Good Luck and GBR!
Corn continued their weakness, as December is nearly 70 cents off the contract high, falling 18 cents on the week. Crop Production data showed US corn yield at 181.2 bpa, up 2.7 bpa from the September report, with production 234 mbu higher at 16.034 bbu. New crop stocks were raised by 282 mbu to 1.849 bbu. The weekly Crop Progress data showed 23% of the US corn harvest complete as of October 4, now lagging average by 4 points. Condition ratings were down 3% this week at 54% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index slipping 5 points at 342. EIA showed ethanol production back up 46,000 barrels in the week of 10/2 at 1.053 million barrels per day. Stocks were back down 122,000 barrels in that week 23.743 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of just 769,468 MT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 10/1, back up from the week prior. CFTC data showed managed money cutting back 60,491 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options, as of October 6, to 377,850 contracts.
The wheat complex across the three exchanges this week. CBT soft red winter futures fell another 12 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 16 cents in the December contract. HRS futures were just 2 ¾ cents in the red. USDA’s monthly WASDE update showed US wheat stocks up 23 mbu to 740 mbu. World stocks were trimmed by 0.25 MMT to 276.04 MMT. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 36% complete as of last Sunday, 10 percentage points behind last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 1 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 451,562 MT, the second largest total in the marketing year. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money adding another 7,873 contracts to their net short in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday, to 29,543 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat cutting back from their net long by another 6,670 contracts, at 24,040 contracts as of October 6.
Soybeans held up this week with November seeing a 13 ¾ cent gaoin. December soybean meal was back up $18.10 on the week, with December bean oil posting a 60 point loss. Monthly Crop Production data showed US yield at 53.1 bpa, up 0.3 bpa from the previous estimate. That took the production estimate 27 mbu higher to 4.562 bbu. US soybean ending stocks were up 5 mbu to 315 mbu. Buyers were quieter again this week, with just 104,000 MT sold via daily announcements to unknown destinations. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean harvest at 25% by 10/4, now 7% behind the average. The window opened up this week. Crop ratings were steady at 57% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index down 2 points to 350. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at just 549,377 MT in the week ending on October 1. CFTC data from Friday showed managed money adding back to their net long in soybean futures and options by 10,496 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday to 251,660 contracts.
Cattle continued saw a breakout this week with December up $6.12 this week, mainly on Friday. Cash trade was reported at $220 in the North per USDA, with Fed Cattle Exchange sales at $223-227 on Friday. November feeders also broke out, with a $9.22 gain since the previous Friday.The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up just 21 e ts week/week to $337.07Wholesale boxed beef prices were slightly lower this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowing to $19.05. Choice boxes was down 84 cents/cwt on the week to $373.35, as Select was down 19 cents to $354.30. Weekly beef production was back down 3.1% from the week prior at 471.9 million lbs, which was also 3.4% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 5.2% above last year on a 7.4% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money trimming 384 contracts from their net long position in the week of October 6, taking the net long in live cattle to 50,920 contracts. In feeders, specs were adding 1,149 contracts to a net long of 8,787 contracts.
Hogs continued their weaker trend, with December falling another $2.82 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $2.30 this week at $78.41 as of October 7. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continues to face pressure, with this week’s losses at $3.98 to $80.50/cwt. The rib was the only primal reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 3.3% from the week prior at 562.4 million lbs, which was 1.1% from the same week last year. Year to date production is steady on a 0.9% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money taking their net short position in lean hog futures and options to another record in the week of 10/6, an reduction of 8,914 contracts, taking the net short to 35,272 contracts.
Cotton posted gains of 166 points in the December contract. Cotton Ginnings data from Friday showed a 487,900 RB of cotton ginned in the last two weeks of September, with the marketing year total at 917,150 RB. Crop Production data raised yield by 14 lbs/ac to 790 lbs. That added another 240,000 bales to production at 13.44 million bales. US ending stocks via the WASDE were up 200,000 bale to 3.8 million. Crop Progress data showed 23% of the US cotton crop harvested, 2 percentage points ahead of normal. Condition ratings were down 2 percentage points at 33% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 4 to 290. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/1 saw sales slip back to 165,070 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 161,588 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 135 points to 63.81 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of October 6 by 10,756 contracts, taking the position to 63,837 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with a federal holiday, as Columbus Day will give the government a day off. The markets will remain open. That will push back the Export Inspections report to Tuesday morning, with the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. Monthly CPI data will be released on Wednesday, which is also expiration day for October lean hogs futures and options, as well as October soybean meal and oil. The EIA report will be released on Thursday morning, with PPI data released that morning. NOPA crush data will also be released on Thursday morning. The Export Sales report will be pushed back to Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn is on life support. After a debilitating 173 mbu of corn was added to the old crop carryout at the end of September, USDA piled on another 234 mbu to the 2026 production tally. The previously record length in the corn market did not approve and have been liquidating for the last 70 cents. After holding near $5, with bulls hopeful the 173 mbu could be offset a yield cut, they threw in the towel. The Elliot wave pattern we have been watching is not completely invalidated but is within 20 cents of it and wave 5 becoming less likely without an upside catalyst. USDA won’t be the answer, at least for another month. Now, not all hope is lost, as there have been plenty of bearish USDA reports in the past couple years the market faded. Stochastics would give the bulls that hope, as they are crossing in oversold. The 200-day moving average was also spiked on Friday at $4.79 ¼ and held at the close after rallying a dime off the lows. If bulls fail to buy that to start the week, it would suggest a bigger test of at least the 61.8% Fib retracement support at $4.73, with nothing else to hold until the $4.50s (78.6% at $4.52 ¼). Any pushback from the bulls mean a retest of $5, though we need more fuel.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.