Weekly Ag Markets Update – 10/12/2026

Wheat: Wheat was lower in both market last week and closed at new lows for the move.  The export sales report showed improved demand.  USDA on Friday showed a slight increase in production and a cut in demand for ending stocks estimates of 740 million bushels, from 717 million last month.  Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war have reported an export pace more than 50% less than a year ago.  The US Winter Wheat planting was 36% complete last week and was 16% emerged.  Conditions are mixed in the US Midwest.  The weather is now featuring scattered showers for parts of the Midwest along with moderate temperatures after a got week last week.  The Great Plains should get big rains in southern areas.  A hurricane was seen in southern areas with big rains forecast for the weekend or this week.

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Corn:  Corn was sharply lower last week on harvest pressure and the USDA data released on Friday.  The report showed that production was estimated at 16.034 billion bushels from 15.800 billion last month.  Yield was estimated at 181.2 bu/acre.  Ending stocks were estimated at 1.849 billion bushels from 1.567 billion last month.  Trends are down on the daily charts.  There is moderating weather in the western and southern Midwest with a lot of rain in the forecast  mostly in the west this week.  Harvest has been active in some areas of the Midwest with good but not great yields being reported.  Ukraine and Russia are still at war and shipping is very limited in both countries.  It should be cooler with some wet weather in the Midwest this week.  The crop conditions were lower from last week and below aa year ago.  Progress is about normal and the harvest is now 83% mature and 23% complete  Temperatures in the Midwest should be cooler this week amid mostly dry weather.  Big rains are likely in the south especially this past weekend and early this week from a hurricane.  Oats were slightly higher.

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Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher last week but Soybean Oil was a little lower.  USDA said that Soybeans production was estimated at 4.562 billion bushels from 4.535 billion last month.  Yield was estimated at 53.1 bu/acre.  Ending stocks were 315 million bushels from 310 million last month.  China is expected to buy more cargoes of US Soybeans before the US-China summit meetings in the coming weeks but the tariffs will remain high.  The harvest was 25% complete last week.  Rain is expected this week in the south and cool and dry weather is likely in the north.  The southern rains could be heavy as a hurricane is expected to hit the region.  Condition is below a year ago and slightly from the previous week.  Moderate temperatures are expected for the next week in the Midwest. There is some concern that El Nono could affect South American Soybeans production this year.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice closed moderately higher last week and closed at new highs for the move as a hurricane is now forecast to hit growing areas this past weekend or early this week.  Damage to iunharveste3d crops is possible.  USDA trimmed production of All Rice to 157.7 million cwt from 158.2 million in September.  Ending stocks were cut to 40.0 million cwt from 4a0.3 million last month.  Long grain production 2was estimated at 103.2 million cwt from 103.5 million last month.  Ending stocks were estimated at 21.1 million cwt from 21.4 million last month.  Brazil prices are strong on ideas of short production and El Nino fears for production on the next crop.  Harvest is active in most states and is 80% complete.  Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice and was moderate last week.  El Nino is threatening production in Asia and Indian prices remain high and are going higher, Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and are up on the weekly charts,

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Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil closed a little higher last week.  Daily chart trends are mixed to down and weekly trends are mixed.  Canola was lower last week and trends are mixed on the daily charts.

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Cotton:  Cotton was high last week on the potential for damage to crops and crop losses in the Delta from the hurricane seen over the weekend.  The rains could create some quality issues with open bolls.  A hurricane could hit southern areas late today with some very heavy rains.  USDA last week showed that conditions are now 33% good to excellent.  Progress shows that the crop now 23% harvested and 74% opening bolls.  Forecasts and reports of showers in Cotton areas continue for the Delts, and the Southeast.  Temperatures will be warm in all areas.  The USDA reports released on Friday showed production of 13.442 billion bales and a yield estimate of 790 pounds per acre.  Ending stocks were estimated at 380 million bales, up from 260 million last moth.  World data showed ending stocks of 70 68 million baled, up from 69.86 million last month.

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Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  Futures were a little higher last week.  Price trends are mixed on the daily charts.  USDA said that the US oranges production is now estimated at 61.7 million boxes down from 63.5 million last year.  Florida production was estimated at 10.0 million boxes, from 13 million last year.  Showers are showing up in Florida and trees are recovering.  The weather for the next crop is seasonal.  The weather is considered good for production in Mexico and showers are developing in Brazil as the rainy season is starting on time.

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Coffee:  New York and London were both lower last week as Brazil is still selling and exporting.  Brazil crops are looking better with rains but producers are holding back on sales due to recent price weakness.  Trends are still up in New York and are mixed in London.  The Brazil harvest is almost over despite increased rains.  Conditions are called good for next crop development and the wet season is starting on time.  Arabica has been boosted near term by quality concerns owing to excess El Nino-linked rains in Brazil and worries the weather pattern might cause dryness ahead.  The next crop is developing in the rest of South America amid scattered to isolated showers.  Indonesia is now about done with its harvest.  Asian conditions are called good.  Other world production conditions are generally good.  Mexico is in good condition, but Central America has been dry.  Premiums are now at or near record highs in Central America due t the drought.  Vietnam exported 1.45 million metric tons of coffee in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2%.

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Sugar:  New York and London were higher last week.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets as both markets showed reversal action on Thursday.  Drought in Brazil was a major concern but rains have returned to center-south regions.  Refineries in the region are producing ethanol at the expense of Sugar.  Indian production is less after hot and dry conditions and production in the rest of Asia could be hurt by El Nino weather.  Higher world petroleum prices are supporting higher ethanol prices and could cause less Sugar to be produced.  Brazilian production dropped 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains.

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Cocoa:   New York and London were both little changed last week.  Weekly trends are mixed.  A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa but it has now turned dry for the next crop.  Dry conditions in Ivory Coast have created concerns about the prospects for 2026/27 production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 has ensured that short-term supplies remain ample. Ivory Coast’s main crop is seen falling around 17% this season, according to a Reuters survey, while Ivorian farmers said that poor rainfall risks bringing the September-to-February main crop to an early end.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year but demand has started to increase.  Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports stood at 18,000 metric tons in the week to October 4, bringing the total since the 2025/26 season start to 54,500 tons.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

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