Grains Report 10/01/2026

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2026 (million bushels)
Wednesday’s Average USDA
Estimate Forecast Range June 2026
Corn 2,095 1,924 1,860-2,005 5,291
Soybeans 315 323 305-335 1,059
Wheat 1,845 1,849 1,790-1,955 920

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Wheat Production
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
2026 U.S. Wheat Production (million bushels)
Actual Average
USDA Forecast Range USDA August
All Wheat 1,533 1,527 1,498-1,543 1,531
Winter Wheat 1,019 987 965-1,003 990
Hard Red Winter 466 462 455-475 463
Soft Red Winter 293 287 281-290 287
White Winter 259 238 228-242 240
Other Spring 449 473 463-490 474
Durum 64 66 63-70 66

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 1
For the week ended Sep 24, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 289.3 -5.0 9657.7 13956.3 3054.3 24.4
hrw 7.1 0.0 2095.5 5529.8 523.7 0.0
srw 42.6 0.0 1470.1 1985.5 437.9 0.0
hrs 77.5 0.0 2787.7 3498.8 863.3 2.5
white 130.1 -5.0 3027.5 2725.8 1141.5 21.9
durum 32.0 0.0 276.9 216.4 87.9 0.0
corn 536.0 0.0 18773.6 27151.4 12969.8 379.5
soybeans 1033.5 0.0 22235.9 11744.8 19680.7 1.0
soymeal -51.1 212.7 18077.7 15568.3 1124.6 4057.2
soyoil 0.2 0.0 377.5 1099.5 11.8 13.4
upland cotton 202.6 39.2 4937.1 4214.3 3570.1 510.7
pima cotton -2.1 0.0 191.1 115.7 134.6 0.0
sorghum 2.2 0.0 44.6 477.8 23.3 1.0
barley 0.0 0.0 47.5 55.7 30.0 0.0
rice 150.6 0.0 973.2 783.7 571.2 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 02, 2026 1 Aug 26, 2026
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct 02, 2026 50 Sep 03, 2026

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat was lower in both markets yesterday on bearish news from the USDA production report and as the Ukraine-Russia war continues and threatens any exports from the region. Both sides have reported an export pace more than 50% less than a year ago. The small grains production report showed stronger than expected production but the quarterly stocks report came in line with trade expectations implying better than expected demand. The US Winter Wheat planting is 27% complete. Conditions are mixed in the US Midwest. The weather is now featuring scattered showers for parts of the Midwest along with moderate temperatures after a got week last week. The Great Plains should get big rains in southern areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 677, 665, and 645 December, with resistance at 730, 736, and 742 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 730, 712, and 693 December, with resistance at 800, 807, and 819 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed lower again yesterday. Brazil prices are strong on ideas of short production and El Nino fears for production on the next crop. Harvest is active in most states and is 80% complete. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice and was moderate last week. El Nino is threatening production in Asia and Indian prices remain high and are going higher, Trends are turning down on the daily charts and are up on the weekly charts,
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1609, 1565, and 1550 November and resistance is at 1670, 1699, and 1712 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on selling tied to the quarterly stocks report that showed higher than expected stocks. There is moderating weather in the western and southern Midwest with a lot of rain forecast mostly in the westthis week. Ukraine and Russia are back at war again and shipping is very limited in both countries. It should be cooler with some wet weather in the Midwest this week. The crop conditions were steady last week and below aa year ago. Progress is about normal and the harvest is now 18% complete. Anecdotal report indicate that the harvest has started in the southern Midwest and could get started in central areas later this week. Temperatures in the Midwest should be cooler this week amid mostly dry weather. Big rains are likely in the south. Oats were about unchanged. The harvest is complete.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed . Support is at 515, 510, and 497 December, and resistance is at 549, 554, and 560 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 406, 403, and 392 December, and resistance is at 426, 432, and 438 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday as the quarterly stocks report was considered positive for prices. China is expected to buy more cargoes of US Soybeans before the US-China summit meetings in the coming weeks but the tariffs will remain high. The harvest is now 17% complete. Rain is expected this week in the south and cool and wet weather continues in the north. Condition is below a year ago and slightly improved from the previous week. Cooler temperatures and wet weather are expected for the next week in the Midwest. Big rains are likely in the south. There is some concern that El Nono could affect South American Soybeans production this year.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1279, 1256, and 1244 November, and resistance is at 1335, 1348, and 1360 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 351.00, 345.00, and 343.00 December, and resistance is at 368.00, 374.00,and 377.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 6660, 6600, and 6470 December, with resistance at 6920, 76960, and 7070 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on weakness in export demand. Daily chart trends are down. Canola was closed yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 805.00, 793.00, and 782.00 November, with resistance at 844.00, 856.00, and 868.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down. Support is at 4560, 4530, and 4480 December, with resistance at 4800, 4890, and 4960 December.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1120.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1130.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1155.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1200.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1257.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1255.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1125.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1135.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1160.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1205.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1262.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1260.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1090.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1040.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,400.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 377.00 -23.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0835)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322