Living near the last dam on the Missouri River you understand the importance of a controlled release. It plays a role for a number of reasons, flood control downstream, ensuring you’re not letting too much out to deplete the water levels upstream, but also ensuring the dams don’t break. While the latter can hopefully be ruled out, I wouldn’t want the job that US Army Corps of Engineers has that controls all of that. In terms of the grains this week, the dams are full. Specs have built up record net longs in the corn, beans, and meal as recent as the last month and wheat is has built up a fairly large position. As it relates to the lakes, they are full of longs. What you want from the managed money crowd, if they want to take some money off the table, is a controlled release. Let things out slow and at a restrained rate. But you don’t want to overfill things to where the dam breaks. We saw some money flow likely releasing a few longs late in the week, but we want to ensure this is a controlled release and not holes in the dam. The former likely would lead to a small correction towards a harvest, with that latter meaning more broad break towards a shifting sentiment.
Corn rounded out the week with a marginal pullback, down 2 ¾ cents from last Friday. The weekly Crop Progress data showed 76% of the US corn crop dented by September 13, with 42% listed at mature and harvest 8% complete. Condition ratings were up 1% this week at 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index steady at 347. EIA showed ethanol production unchanged in the week of 9/11 at 1.099 million barrels per day. Stocks were back up 33,000 barrels in that week 25.22 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of 1.027 MMT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 9/10. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money adding back 1,671 contracts to their net long position in corn futures and options. As of September 15, their net long position was 426,842 contracts
The wheat complex was lower this week, as the winter wheat contracts led the weakness. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 11 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 14 ¾ cents in December contract. HRS futures were down 3 ¾ cents Friday/Friday. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 93% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of September 13. Winter wheat was 8% planted as of last Sunday. Canadian wheat production for 2026/27 is estimated at 36.12 MMT, down 10.9% from last year, with spring wheat dropping 10.9% to 26.452 MMT according to Stats Canada data. Export Sales data from the week of September 10 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 325,935 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money trimming back their new net long by 10,392 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of September 8, to 4,262 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat added to their net long by 964 contracts, at 51,248 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans managed to hold onto gains this week despite a Friday correction, with November up 7 cents. October soybean meal was $7.80 in the green on the week, with October bean oil posting a 149 point loss. Buyers were quieter this week, with just 110,000 MT sold via daily announcements to China. The two countries leaers will meet in DC this coming week. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 44% dropping leaves by September 13, with harvest at 6% finished. Crop ratings were steady at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index unchanged at 353. NOPA data showed a total of 205.46 mbu of soybeans crushed among members in August, 8.24% above last year but 5.17% below the same week last year. Soybean oil stocks were tallied at 1.201 billion lbs, which was a 3.5% decline from last year. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at 1.7 MMT in the week ending on September 10. CFTC data from Friday showed managed money backing off from their previous record net long in soybean futures and options by 21,321 contracts in the week of 9/15 to 244,710 contracts.
Cattle were on the weaker side this week, with contracts falling back $3.75. Cash trade was slow this week, back down to $222-223 on the week. September feeder cattle were back down $4.25 this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $11.28 week/week to $342.50. USDA plans to open another border crossing in New Mexico this coming week. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowing to $18.68. Choice boxes fell back $4/cwt on the week to $371.94, as Select was up 13 cents to $353.26. Weekly beef production was up 4.8% from the week prior at 469.3 million lbs but down 4.5% from the same week last year. Year to date production is down 5.1% on a 7.5% drop in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed August placements at 1.617 million head, a record low for the month and 9.16% below last year. Marketings during the month were down 3.31% at 1.519 million head. September 1 on feed inventory was up just 0.75% from a year ago at 11.163 million head. CFTC data showed managed money cutting 1,988 contracts from their net long position in the week of 9/15, taking the net long in live cattle to 45,262 contracts.
Hogs faced weakness this week as the spec shorts flocked back in, with October down $3.42 since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $3.20 this week at $85.02 as of September 16. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to face pressure this week with a $2.82 loss for the week at $86.98/cwt. The rib and belly were the only primals reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 9.7% from the (holiday) week prior at 528.5 million lbs, which was also down 4.3% from last year. Production year to date is now down 0.1% above last year on a 1% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money taking their net short position in lean hog futures and options back to a record in the week of 9/15, an increase of 7,845 contracts, taking the net short to 31,401 contracts.
Cotton futures fell apart this week, with December 491 points from last Friday. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 57% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday, as the crop was 8% harvested. Condition ratings were up 2 percentage points at 36% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index steady at 298. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 9/10 saw sales of just 71,231 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 142,078 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 59 points to 68.92 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of September 15 but 2,267 contracts, taking the position to 97,903 contracts net long.
Market Watch
We start out next week with the Monday morning Export Inspections, as NASS will be out with the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday morning. Thursday will wee the Export Sales report in the morning, with the Hogs & Pigs report out that afternoon. Thursday is also the last trade day for September feeder cattle futures and options as well as first notice day for October cotton futures. October grain options will expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November beans have stalled out this last week after rally to the high of $13.35 ¼ last Friday. That was a bearish engulfing line that saw no follow through. The Wednesday push to $13.32 ¼ was a form of a bearish shooting star and a potential short-term double top. The thing to watch over the next couple days is the support near $13. There is a cluster of support with the 18-day moving average at $13.01 ¼, with an uptrend off the August low at $13.03 and a 1/3 speedline at $13.04 ¼. Breaking that would suggest a test of $12.70 ¼, the 38.2% Fib retracement support off the August low. The monthly continuation chart left a gap at $12.78 ½ this month, so that is a spot to keep an eye on. MACD would argue that we are headed that direction, flipping bearish with a sell signal this week (at 28 the strongest sell signal on the contract’s daily chart). Stochastics are now in neutral, but ADX at 37 says to watch MACD.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Controlled Release or Holes in the Dam. Ag Marketing Report 09/21/2026
Living near the last dam on the Missouri River you understand the importance of a controlled release. It plays a role for a number of reasons, flood control downstream, ensuring you’re not letting too much out to deplete the water levels upstream, but also ensuring the dams don’t break. While the latter can hopefully be ruled out, I wouldn’t want the job that US Army Corps of Engineers has that controls all of that. In terms of the grains this week, the dams are full. Specs have built up record net longs in the corn, beans, and meal as recent as the last month and wheat is has built up a fairly large position. As it relates to the lakes, they are full of longs. What you want from the managed money crowd, if they want to take some money off the table, is a controlled release. Let things out slow and at a restrained rate. But you don’t want to overfill things to where the dam breaks. We saw some money flow likely releasing a few longs late in the week, but we want to ensure this is a controlled release and not holes in the dam. The former likely would lead to a small correction towards a harvest, with that latter meaning more broad break towards a shifting sentiment.
Corn rounded out the week with a marginal pullback, down 2 ¾ cents from last Friday. The weekly Crop Progress data showed 76% of the US corn crop dented by September 13, with 42% listed at mature and harvest 8% complete. Condition ratings were up 1% this week at 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index steady at 347. EIA showed ethanol production unchanged in the week of 9/11 at 1.099 million barrels per day. Stocks were back up 33,000 barrels in that week 25.22 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of 1.027 MMT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 9/10. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money adding back 1,671 contracts to their net long position in corn futures and options. As of September 15, their net long position was 426,842 contracts
The wheat complex was lower this week, as the winter wheat contracts led the weakness. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 11 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 14 ¾ cents in December contract. HRS futures were down 3 ¾ cents Friday/Friday. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 93% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of September 13. Winter wheat was 8% planted as of last Sunday. Canadian wheat production for 2026/27 is estimated at 36.12 MMT, down 10.9% from last year, with spring wheat dropping 10.9% to 26.452 MMT according to Stats Canada data. Export Sales data from the week of September 10 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 325,935 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money trimming back their new net long by 10,392 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of September 8, to 4,262 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat added to their net long by 964 contracts, at 51,248 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans managed to hold onto gains this week despite a Friday correction, with November up 7 cents. October soybean meal was $7.80 in the green on the week, with October bean oil posting a 149 point loss. Buyers were quieter this week, with just 110,000 MT sold via daily announcements to China. The two countries leaers will meet in DC this coming week. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 44% dropping leaves by September 13, with harvest at 6% finished. Crop ratings were steady at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index unchanged at 353. NOPA data showed a total of 205.46 mbu of soybeans crushed among members in August, 8.24% above last year but 5.17% below the same week last year. Soybean oil stocks were tallied at 1.201 billion lbs, which was a 3.5% decline from last year. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at 1.7 MMT in the week ending on September 10. CFTC data from Friday showed managed money backing off from their previous record net long in soybean futures and options by 21,321 contracts in the week of 9/15 to 244,710 contracts.
Cattle were on the weaker side this week, with contracts falling back $3.75. Cash trade was slow this week, back down to $222-223 on the week. September feeder cattle were back down $4.25 this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $11.28 week/week to $342.50. USDA plans to open another border crossing in New Mexico this coming week. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowing to $18.68. Choice boxes fell back $4/cwt on the week to $371.94, as Select was up 13 cents to $353.26. Weekly beef production was up 4.8% from the week prior at 469.3 million lbs but down 4.5% from the same week last year. Year to date production is down 5.1% on a 7.5% drop in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed August placements at 1.617 million head, a record low for the month and 9.16% below last year. Marketings during the month were down 3.31% at 1.519 million head. September 1 on feed inventory was up just 0.75% from a year ago at 11.163 million head. CFTC data showed managed money cutting 1,988 contracts from their net long position in the week of 9/15, taking the net long in live cattle to 45,262 contracts.
Hogs faced weakness this week as the spec shorts flocked back in, with October down $3.42 since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $3.20 this week at $85.02 as of September 16. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to face pressure this week with a $2.82 loss for the week at $86.98/cwt. The rib and belly were the only primals reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 9.7% from the (holiday) week prior at 528.5 million lbs, which was also down 4.3% from last year. Production year to date is now down 0.1% above last year on a 1% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money taking their net short position in lean hog futures and options back to a record in the week of 9/15, an increase of 7,845 contracts, taking the net short to 31,401 contracts.
Cotton futures fell apart this week, with December 491 points from last Friday. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 57% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday, as the crop was 8% harvested. Condition ratings were up 2 percentage points at 36% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index steady at 298. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 9/10 saw sales of just 71,231 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 142,078 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 59 points to 68.92 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of September 15 but 2,267 contracts, taking the position to 97,903 contracts net long.
Market Watch
We start out next week with the Monday morning Export Inspections, as NASS will be out with the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday morning. Thursday will wee the Export Sales report in the morning, with the Hogs & Pigs report out that afternoon. Thursday is also the last trade day for September feeder cattle futures and options as well as first notice day for October cotton futures. October grain options will expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November beans have stalled out this last week after rally to the high of $13.35 ¼ last Friday. That was a bearish engulfing line that saw no follow through. The Wednesday push to $13.32 ¼ was a form of a bearish shooting star and a potential short-term double top. The thing to watch over the next couple days is the support near $13. There is a cluster of support with the 18-day moving average at $13.01 ¼, with an uptrend off the August low at $13.03 and a 1/3 speedline at $13.04 ¼. Breaking that would suggest a test of $12.70 ¼, the 38.2% Fib retracement support off the August low. The monthly continuation chart left a gap at $12.78 ½ this month, so that is a spot to keep an eye on. MACD would argue that we are headed that direction, flipping bearish with a sell signal this week (at 28 the strongest sell signal on the contract’s daily chart). Stochastics are now in neutral, but ADX at 37 says to watch MACD.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.