Last week was all about heating up. What comes after? Well often times, with heat comes fire. That was the grains this week as wheat continues to lead the charge with a limit move during the week and $8 Chicago wheat in the crosshairs. KC is already there. Corn tagged along for the ride, with beans also catching fire. Cotton if joining in too, with the 90 cent level unlocked. We’ll have to see how long the momentum can hold, as you know how well the wheat market does in these situations. They don’t say, “trade wheat, sleep in the street” for no reason! As for the cattle, the fire department had to show up for damage control this week as the market was fully engulfed from the burning down that’s happened recently.
Corn futures were in rally mode this week closing above $5 for the first time in 3 years. September was up 28 ¼ cents, with December 28 cents higher. Weekly Crop Progress data tallied 86% of the US corn crop in the dough stage by August 23, with 46% dented and 6% mature. Condition ratings slipped another 3% this week to 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 5 at 347. EIA showed ethanol production back up 23,000 barrels per day in the week of 8/21 to 1.112 million bpd. Stocks were up another 85,000 barrels in that week 25.2 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at just 31,220 MT in the week of August 20, with new crop sales to a new MY high at 1.066 MMT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 8/25 showed spec funds adding 126,008 contracts to their net long in corn futures and options to a net long of 376,513 contracts.
The wheat complex was the leader of the grain rally this week. CBT soft red winter futures led the charge, up 85 ½ cents (12.55%). KC hard red winter futures were up 71 ½ cents for the September contract, a 9.45% gains. HRS futures were 47 cents in the green. The Black Sea situation continues to add premium to the wheat market, as Russia indicated they were looking toward escalation this week. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 62% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of August 23. Condition ratings were down 1 percentage point to 51% in gd/ex condition for the final rating, a 341 rating on the Brugler500 index, down 3 points from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of August 20 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at the third highest for the marketing year at 402,531 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money cutting back their net short by 12,314 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of August 25 to 14,171 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat added to their net long by 9,227 contracts, at 44,062 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans rallied on the week, with September up 51 ¼ cents and November 48 ½ cents higher. September soybean meal was $20.50 higher on the week, with September bean oil posting a 124 point gain. Buyers continued make their presence known this week, though they were less active than last week, with to be active this week, with another 873,000 MT sold via daily announcements from to China and unknown buyers. Bean oil was under pressure from rumors that the EPA was looking to grant addition small refiner exemptions, though reports late in the week suggested they plan to offset that with 500 million in additional quotas for 2027. Nothing has been officially announced. The weekly Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 91% setting pods by August 23, with 6% dropping leaves. Crop ratings were down another 1% at 60% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, with the Brugler500 index down 4 at 357. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean bookings at 73,913 MT in the week ending on August 20. New crop business was reported at 2.478 MMT. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding another 46,592 contracts to their net long as of August 25, taking it to a new long of 198,254 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle were again the weak spot this week, with October live cattle falling $6.20. Cash trade was weaker for the week starting out near the $218 area early and firming to $222 by Friday, down $1-3 from the previous week. September feeder cattle were down $8.12 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $8.20 week/week to $332.80. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread tightened back down to $15.15. Choice boxes fell $9.46/cwt on the week to $376.23, as Select slipped 24 cents to $361.06. Weekly beef production was up 3.7% from the week prior at 478.8 million lbs, which was 3.1% below same week last year. Year to date production was down 5.4% on an 7.9% drop in slaughter. Monday’s Cold Storage report showed beef stocks at 382.71 million lbs at the end of July, which was down 3.79% from last year and 1.59% below last month. Weekly Commitment of Traders data indicated spec funds trimming another 4,073 contracts from their net long as of August 25, taking it to 57,441 contracts of futures and options in live cattle. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was cutting back 1,784 contracts to a net long of just 5,714 contracts.
Hogs firmed up late in the week, with October up $1.02 for the full week move. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.58 this week at $92.14 as of August 26. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to grind lower this week with a $1.90 loss for the week at $96.06/cwt. The rib was the only primal reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 0.2% from the week prior and 0.5% above the same week last year at 503.4 million lbs. Production year to date is up 0.4% above last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data from Monday showed pork stocks at 439.43 million lbs at the end of July. That was a 3.43% decline from June but up 8.6% from a year ago. CFTC data showed managed money increasing their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 8/25 by 7,649 contracts, taking the net short to 31,135 contracts, a record.
Cotton futures slipped on Friday, but still held on for a weekly gain of 303 points, as December breached the 90 cent level. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 81% of the US cotton crop setting bolls as of Sunday, with 20% bolls opening. Condition ratings were down 1 percentage point at 37% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index falling another 6 points to 304. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 8/20 saw 95,726 RB for 2026/27 sales, with 2027/28 sales at 39,600 RB. Shipments were reported at 181,025 RB. The Adjusted World Price was up 190 points to 71.52 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added another 17,173 contracts to their net long in the week of August 25, taking the position to 95,841 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and NASS Crop Progress report in the afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for September grain futures, as well as the last trade day for August live cattle. The monthly use reports via Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils data from USDA will be out on Tuesday. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday. Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning, with monthly Census trade data out as well.
Tech Talk: December Corn
Just two weeks ago when we broke the neckline off the head and shoulders bottom on the December corn chart (60 cents ago), we thought it would be a challenge getting there with a 78 cent count. Now, less than 25 cents from the count of $5.60, it’s looking more and more probable. The big question, other than IF we can get there, is what happens between now and when (if) we do. It is less than a limit’s move away so, hypothetically we could do it on Monday. But there are a few things we are keeping our eyes on. First, there seems to be an Elliott wave pattern emerging with the current wave identified as 3. The unknown would be if we are at the end of it or still working on it. We have moved 84 cents so far, which has outpaced the 66 1/4 cents from wave 1 so it could be the end. Overbought stochastics and CCI would argue it is. Though with ADX at 37 and a trend taking place, we could argue to look harder at the bullish MACD. Waves 4 and 5 are drawn on for visual reference and should not be taken as what (price and time) is expected. Still, if we would get a correction, wave theory would say wave 4 doesn’t go below the $4.92 high from July. Round number support would be $5, with last Sunday night’s gap at $5.09. From a resistance standpoint, there isn’t much from here to at least $5.56 1/4, which is the 1.618 Fib expansion off the May high. The H&S objective is $5.60. The weekly/monthly continuation charts have a 38.2% Fib retracement off the 2022 high at $5.38, which applies to September. Thus, you’d have to add the carry to Dec, which, at 24 ½ cents, would say $5.62 is the number. We ran out of steam at the end of the week, so bulls will need to catch a second wind to get there.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
On Fire! Ag Marketing Report 08/31/2026
Last week was all about heating up. What comes after? Well often times, with heat comes fire. That was the grains this week as wheat continues to lead the charge with a limit move during the week and $8 Chicago wheat in the crosshairs. KC is already there. Corn tagged along for the ride, with beans also catching fire. Cotton if joining in too, with the 90 cent level unlocked. We’ll have to see how long the momentum can hold, as you know how well the wheat market does in these situations. They don’t say, “trade wheat, sleep in the street” for no reason! As for the cattle, the fire department had to show up for damage control this week as the market was fully engulfed from the burning down that’s happened recently.
Corn futures were in rally mode this week closing above $5 for the first time in 3 years. September was up 28 ¼ cents, with December 28 cents higher. Weekly Crop Progress data tallied 86% of the US corn crop in the dough stage by August 23, with 46% dented and 6% mature. Condition ratings slipped another 3% this week to 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 5 at 347. EIA showed ethanol production back up 23,000 barrels per day in the week of 8/21 to 1.112 million bpd. Stocks were up another 85,000 barrels in that week 25.2 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at just 31,220 MT in the week of August 20, with new crop sales to a new MY high at 1.066 MMT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 8/25 showed spec funds adding 126,008 contracts to their net long in corn futures and options to a net long of 376,513 contracts.
The wheat complex was the leader of the grain rally this week. CBT soft red winter futures led the charge, up 85 ½ cents (12.55%). KC hard red winter futures were up 71 ½ cents for the September contract, a 9.45% gains. HRS futures were 47 cents in the green. The Black Sea situation continues to add premium to the wheat market, as Russia indicated they were looking toward escalation this week. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 62% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of August 23. Condition ratings were down 1 percentage point to 51% in gd/ex condition for the final rating, a 341 rating on the Brugler500 index, down 3 points from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of August 20 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at the third highest for the marketing year at 402,531 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money cutting back their net short by 12,314 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of August 25 to 14,171 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat added to their net long by 9,227 contracts, at 44,062 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans rallied on the week, with September up 51 ¼ cents and November 48 ½ cents higher. September soybean meal was $20.50 higher on the week, with September bean oil posting a 124 point gain. Buyers continued make their presence known this week, though they were less active than last week, with to be active this week, with another 873,000 MT sold via daily announcements from to China and unknown buyers. Bean oil was under pressure from rumors that the EPA was looking to grant addition small refiner exemptions, though reports late in the week suggested they plan to offset that with 500 million in additional quotas for 2027. Nothing has been officially announced. The weekly Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 91% setting pods by August 23, with 6% dropping leaves. Crop ratings were down another 1% at 60% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, with the Brugler500 index down 4 at 357. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean bookings at 73,913 MT in the week ending on August 20. New crop business was reported at 2.478 MMT. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding another 46,592 contracts to their net long as of August 25, taking it to a new long of 198,254 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle were again the weak spot this week, with October live cattle falling $6.20. Cash trade was weaker for the week starting out near the $218 area early and firming to $222 by Friday, down $1-3 from the previous week. September feeder cattle were down $8.12 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $8.20 week/week to $332.80. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread tightened back down to $15.15. Choice boxes fell $9.46/cwt on the week to $376.23, as Select slipped 24 cents to $361.06. Weekly beef production was up 3.7% from the week prior at 478.8 million lbs, which was 3.1% below same week last year. Year to date production was down 5.4% on an 7.9% drop in slaughter. Monday’s Cold Storage report showed beef stocks at 382.71 million lbs at the end of July, which was down 3.79% from last year and 1.59% below last month. Weekly Commitment of Traders data indicated spec funds trimming another 4,073 contracts from their net long as of August 25, taking it to 57,441 contracts of futures and options in live cattle. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was cutting back 1,784 contracts to a net long of just 5,714 contracts.
Hogs firmed up late in the week, with October up $1.02 for the full week move. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.58 this week at $92.14 as of August 26. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to grind lower this week with a $1.90 loss for the week at $96.06/cwt. The rib was the only primal reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 0.2% from the week prior and 0.5% above the same week last year at 503.4 million lbs. Production year to date is up 0.4% above last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data from Monday showed pork stocks at 439.43 million lbs at the end of July. That was a 3.43% decline from June but up 8.6% from a year ago. CFTC data showed managed money increasing their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 8/25 by 7,649 contracts, taking the net short to 31,135 contracts, a record.
Cotton futures slipped on Friday, but still held on for a weekly gain of 303 points, as December breached the 90 cent level. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 81% of the US cotton crop setting bolls as of Sunday, with 20% bolls opening. Condition ratings were down 1 percentage point at 37% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index falling another 6 points to 304. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 8/20 saw 95,726 RB for 2026/27 sales, with 2027/28 sales at 39,600 RB. Shipments were reported at 181,025 RB. The Adjusted World Price was up 190 points to 71.52 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added another 17,173 contracts to their net long in the week of August 25, taking the position to 95,841 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and NASS Crop Progress report in the afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for September grain futures, as well as the last trade day for August live cattle. The monthly use reports via Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils data from USDA will be out on Tuesday. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday. Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning, with monthly Census trade data out as well.
Tech Talk: December Corn
Just two weeks ago when we broke the neckline off the head and shoulders bottom on the December corn chart (60 cents ago), we thought it would be a challenge getting there with a 78 cent count. Now, less than 25 cents from the count of $5.60, it’s looking more and more probable. The big question, other than IF we can get there, is what happens between now and when (if) we do. It is less than a limit’s move away so, hypothetically we could do it on Monday. But there are a few things we are keeping our eyes on. First, there seems to be an Elliott wave pattern emerging with the current wave identified as 3. The unknown would be if we are at the end of it or still working on it. We have moved 84 cents so far, which has outpaced the 66 1/4 cents from wave 1 so it could be the end. Overbought stochastics and CCI would argue it is. Though with ADX at 37 and a trend taking place, we could argue to look harder at the bullish MACD. Waves 4 and 5 are drawn on for visual reference and should not be taken as what (price and time) is expected. Still, if we would get a correction, wave theory would say wave 4 doesn’t go below the $4.92 high from July. Round number support would be $5, with last Sunday night’s gap at $5.09. From a resistance standpoint, there isn’t much from here to at least $5.56 1/4, which is the 1.618 Fib expansion off the May high. The H&S objective is $5.60. The weekly/monthly continuation charts have a 38.2% Fib retracement off the 2022 high at $5.38, which applies to September. Thus, you’d have to add the carry to Dec, which, at 24 ½ cents, would say $5.62 is the number. We ran out of steam at the end of the week, so bulls will need to catch a second wind to get there.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.