Next Wednesday we get the first official NASS estimate for corn and soybean yields. That update will include the first update to acreage that includes the FSA data. Last year was some fireworks around this report and this year will surely be similar. The trade spent the last week with a little calmer action after recent losses, with the grains holding within 1% of the previous week for the most part. Still as the trade gets prepped for Wednesday, there will surely be something in the report that gives the market some surprise.
Corn was back and forth this week as September closed with a 1 ¾ cent loss and December down 2 cents. This week’s Crop Progress report showed 90% of the US corn crop as silking by August 2, with 43% in the dough stage and 6% dented. Condition ratings slipped another 2% at 61% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 5 points 356. EIA showed ethanol production at back off 26,000 barrels per day in the week of 7/31 to 1.107 million bpd. Stocks slipped 202,000 barrels in that week 24.524 million barrels. The monthly Grain Crushing report indicated 466.71 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in June, down 1.5% from last month and 4.43% larger yr/yr to a record June total. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at just 116,740 MT in the week of July 30, with new crop sales at 1.027 MMT in that week. June exports of corn were tallied at 7.926 MMT (312 mbu) according to Census data, which was a record for the month and 9.29% larger than in May. Commitment of Traders data as of 8/4 showed managed money adding another 13,547 contracts of futures and options to their net long to 181,946 contracts.
The wheat complex was steady for the most part to begin August. SRW futures were up just ½ cent this week for the September contract, with KC wheat 6 1/2 cents higher. MPLS spring wheat was the weak spot, down 10 1/4 cents in the September contract. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 86% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Spring wheat was 98% headed and 5% harvested, with ratings up 2 percentage points at 55% in gd/ex condition, a 348 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 6 points from the week prior. NASS Flour Milling data showed 222.28 mbu of wheat ground for flour from April to June, down just 0.65 mbu from last year and up 0.58 mbu from the previous quarter. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of July 30 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 296,427 MT. Export data was released by Census this week, showing 1.473 MMT of exports in June, a 3 year low and 8.49% below the May total. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding back to their net short by 16,906 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of August 4 to 23,786 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed their net long by 139 contracts to 33,094 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans continued to be pressured by the wetter forecasts, with September down 11 3/4 cents and November slipping 11 1/4 cents. September soybean meal was $6.00 lower this week, with September bean oil posting a sharp 98 point gain. Buyers continued to be active this week, with another 1.116 MMT sold via daily announcements from USDA to both China and unknown buyers. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 88% blooming by August 2, with 62% setting pods. Crop ratings were steady at 63% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, or 363 on the Brugler500 index. USDA Fats & Oils report tallied 217.8 mbu of soybeans crushed in June, up 2.21% from May and 10.61% larger than the same month last year. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean bookings at 32,157,260 MT in the week ending on 7/30. New crop business was reported at 903,920 MT. Monthly Census data showed a total of 1.917 MMT soybeans shipped in June, which was the largest June total in 4 years but down 14.35% from May. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds trimming back 29,535 contracts to their net long as of August 4, taking it to a new long of 125,466 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle saw back and forth trade, with August closing the week a nickel lower. Cash trade firmed this week at $235. August feeder cattle were up $3.625 on the week despite seeing some midweek pressure. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $7.71 week/week to $357.36. Wholesale boxed beef prices were on the steadier side this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was at $15.15. Choice boxes were up $2.98/cwt on the week to $364.36, as Select was $6.14 higher at $352.37. Weekly beef production was down 0.5% from the week prior and 2.7% below same week last year at 451.0 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.6% on an 8.1% drop in slaughter. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds trimming 456 contracts from their net long as of August 4, taking it to 66,067 contracts of futures and options in live cattle futures and options. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was adding back 1,182 contracts to a net long of just 8,605 contracts.
Hogs were under pressure for much of the week, down $3.35 since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.78 this week at $96.66 as of August 5. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout bounced around the $100 level this week ending with a $1.49 gain at $101.50/cwt. The loin and rib primals were lower, with the belly up $8.41. Weekly pork production was up 0.3% from the week prior but 0.9% below the same week last year at 488.1 million lbs. Production year to date is up 0.5% above last year on a 0.6% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money trimming back another 1,242 contracts to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 8/4, taking the net short to 9,642 contracts.
Cotton futures continued to post strength this week, with December up 261 points. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 88% of the US cotton crop squared last Sunday, with 55% setting bolls and 4% bolls opening. Condition ratings were down 4 percentage points at 42% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index back down 11 points to 325. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 7/30 were tallied a net cancellations of 55,855 RB for old crop as we round out the marketing year, with 242,052 RB for new crop. Shipments were reported at 222,830 RB. Export data from Census showed June shipments at 1.245 million bales excluding linters, a 4-month low but a 4-year high. The Adjusted World Price was back up 163 points to 66.29 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added another 9,869 contracts to their net long in the week of August 4, taking the position to 62,279 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out in the afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for August live cattle futures. CPI data will be released on Wednesday morning, with the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports out showing the first estimate for the 2026 corn and bean crop. PPI data will be out on Thursday, with Export Sales data released that morning. Friday is the last trade day for August lean hog futures and options, as well as August soybean complex futures.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans found some support this week, after slipping below the 2/3 speedling early. That is now potential resistance on a retest at $11.83 ¾, which held one on Friday. Support via the 61.8% Fib retracement is at $11.73, which found buyers this week. Other support comes from the 100-day moving average at $11.71. MACD is still bearish but ADX has detrended to just 17. Stochastics have crossed in oversold, though we’ll be patient to call it a buy signal until an exit oversold. If we get one, resistance would be the 18-day moving average at $12.04 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Calming Before the Storm. Ag Marketing Report 08/10/2026
Next Wednesday we get the first official NASS estimate for corn and soybean yields. That update will include the first update to acreage that includes the FSA data. Last year was some fireworks around this report and this year will surely be similar. The trade spent the last week with a little calmer action after recent losses, with the grains holding within 1% of the previous week for the most part. Still as the trade gets prepped for Wednesday, there will surely be something in the report that gives the market some surprise.
Corn was back and forth this week as September closed with a 1 ¾ cent loss and December down 2 cents. This week’s Crop Progress report showed 90% of the US corn crop as silking by August 2, with 43% in the dough stage and 6% dented. Condition ratings slipped another 2% at 61% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 5 points 356. EIA showed ethanol production at back off 26,000 barrels per day in the week of 7/31 to 1.107 million bpd. Stocks slipped 202,000 barrels in that week 24.524 million barrels. The monthly Grain Crushing report indicated 466.71 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in June, down 1.5% from last month and 4.43% larger yr/yr to a record June total. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at just 116,740 MT in the week of July 30, with new crop sales at 1.027 MMT in that week. June exports of corn were tallied at 7.926 MMT (312 mbu) according to Census data, which was a record for the month and 9.29% larger than in May. Commitment of Traders data as of 8/4 showed managed money adding another 13,547 contracts of futures and options to their net long to 181,946 contracts.
The wheat complex was steady for the most part to begin August. SRW futures were up just ½ cent this week for the September contract, with KC wheat 6 1/2 cents higher. MPLS spring wheat was the weak spot, down 10 1/4 cents in the September contract. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 86% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Spring wheat was 98% headed and 5% harvested, with ratings up 2 percentage points at 55% in gd/ex condition, a 348 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 6 points from the week prior. NASS Flour Milling data showed 222.28 mbu of wheat ground for flour from April to June, down just 0.65 mbu from last year and up 0.58 mbu from the previous quarter. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of July 30 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 296,427 MT. Export data was released by Census this week, showing 1.473 MMT of exports in June, a 3 year low and 8.49% below the May total. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding back to their net short by 16,906 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of August 4 to 23,786 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed their net long by 139 contracts to 33,094 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans continued to be pressured by the wetter forecasts, with September down 11 3/4 cents and November slipping 11 1/4 cents. September soybean meal was $6.00 lower this week, with September bean oil posting a sharp 98 point gain. Buyers continued to be active this week, with another 1.116 MMT sold via daily announcements from USDA to both China and unknown buyers. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 88% blooming by August 2, with 62% setting pods. Crop ratings were steady at 63% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, or 363 on the Brugler500 index. USDA Fats & Oils report tallied 217.8 mbu of soybeans crushed in June, up 2.21% from May and 10.61% larger than the same month last year. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean bookings at 32,157,260 MT in the week ending on 7/30. New crop business was reported at 903,920 MT. Monthly Census data showed a total of 1.917 MMT soybeans shipped in June, which was the largest June total in 4 years but down 14.35% from May. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds trimming back 29,535 contracts to their net long as of August 4, taking it to a new long of 125,466 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle saw back and forth trade, with August closing the week a nickel lower. Cash trade firmed this week at $235. August feeder cattle were up $3.625 on the week despite seeing some midweek pressure. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $7.71 week/week to $357.36. Wholesale boxed beef prices were on the steadier side this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was at $15.15. Choice boxes were up $2.98/cwt on the week to $364.36, as Select was $6.14 higher at $352.37. Weekly beef production was down 0.5% from the week prior and 2.7% below same week last year at 451.0 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.6% on an 8.1% drop in slaughter. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds trimming 456 contracts from their net long as of August 4, taking it to 66,067 contracts of futures and options in live cattle futures and options. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was adding back 1,182 contracts to a net long of just 8,605 contracts.
Hogs were under pressure for much of the week, down $3.35 since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.78 this week at $96.66 as of August 5. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout bounced around the $100 level this week ending with a $1.49 gain at $101.50/cwt. The loin and rib primals were lower, with the belly up $8.41. Weekly pork production was up 0.3% from the week prior but 0.9% below the same week last year at 488.1 million lbs. Production year to date is up 0.5% above last year on a 0.6% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money trimming back another 1,242 contracts to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 8/4, taking the net short to 9,642 contracts.
Cotton futures continued to post strength this week, with December up 261 points. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 88% of the US cotton crop squared last Sunday, with 55% setting bolls and 4% bolls opening. Condition ratings were down 4 percentage points at 42% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index back down 11 points to 325. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 7/30 were tallied a net cancellations of 55,855 RB for old crop as we round out the marketing year, with 242,052 RB for new crop. Shipments were reported at 222,830 RB. Export data from Census showed June shipments at 1.245 million bales excluding linters, a 4-month low but a 4-year high. The Adjusted World Price was back up 163 points to 66.29 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added another 9,869 contracts to their net long in the week of August 4, taking the position to 62,279 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out in the afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for August live cattle futures. CPI data will be released on Wednesday morning, with the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports out showing the first estimate for the 2026 corn and bean crop. PPI data will be out on Thursday, with Export Sales data released that morning. Friday is the last trade day for August lean hog futures and options, as well as August soybean complex futures.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans found some support this week, after slipping below the 2/3 speedling early. That is now potential resistance on a retest at $11.83 ¾, which held one on Friday. Support via the 61.8% Fib retracement is at $11.73, which found buyers this week. Other support comes from the 100-day moving average at $11.71. MACD is still bearish but ADX has detrended to just 17. Stochastics have crossed in oversold, though we’ll be patient to call it a buy signal until an exit oversold. If we get one, resistance would be the 18-day moving average at $12.04 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.