Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The USDA’s updated monthly food expenditure data showed food service demand remained resilient through May. Food-away-from-home sales totaled $116.8 Bil, compared with $96.4 Bil for food at home, giving restaurants and other foodservice outlets at a 54.8% share of total food spending. That was the highest share of total food spending. That was the highest share since June 2025 and confirms that consumers continue to allocate the majority of food dollars to meals purchased away from home. The more important change from last month is that inflation-adjusted demand improved. Real total food sales were up 0.8% from a year ago in May, with real food-at-home spending up 1.2% and real food-away-from home spending up 0.5%.. Normal sales were up roughly 4% across both categories. The data suggests consumers are absorbing high foodservice prices, though real growth is modest.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
US Forecast Warmer Two Weeks; Widespread Soil Moisture Ahead:
The mild Central US temps will be established this week, but relief from the abnormal heat will be short-lived. Warmth regenerates this weekend and is forecast to blanket the US Ag Belt into August 5th. Extreme heat will be confined to the Southern Plains , but highs in the upper 80’s & low 90’s will be common elsewhere after July 25th. Regional showers favor NE, MO, IA, and western IL Tues-Fri. Complete dryness is forecast this week. 6-10 day guidance is dry in all areas. NOAA’s bias corrected projected change in soil moisture, and speedy moisture draws are forecast in all but parts of W Plains and Carolinas. The need for regular rain becomes urgent after the opening days of August, but Ag Resources (ARC) fears a pattern of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temps stay in place into the later part of summer. Yield potential is being trimmed. The US weather pattern lacks momentum.
Corn Comments & Analysis
EU Market Scores New Three-Year High Amid Unending Drought; CBOT Values Follow on Potential Massive Imports:
CBOT corn futures pushed to new rally highs with December reaching $4.76, the best price level since early June. EU corn futures pushed to gains of $0.275/Buat a price of $7.43/Bu amid the unrelenting Western European drought. Managed money continues to push new funds into corn futures amid tightening world supplies/stocks with a super El Nino forming in the equatorial Pacific. Yet, CBOT futures ended a it off session highs as shower chances exist across NE, MO, and parts of the eastern Midwest. ARC’s work maintains weather/yield potential isn’t as strong as last year and certainly not strong as last year and certainly not strong enough to offset lower US acres and overall demand growth. The US crop this week is rated at 67% GD/EX, vs. 68% last week and vs. 74%on July 20, 2026. Deterioration occurred where temps were hottest last wee (SD, ND, MN). Modest improvement was recorded east of the Mississippi River with US ratings at the 5-year average. Regional areas of rain will be witnessed this week, with other areas completely missing the moisture. Heat & dryness will persist across W Europe. EU 2026 corn crop estimates rest at 48 MMT’s or below vs. 57 in 2025. This raises Europe’s need for imported corn to a record 26-29 MMT’s. Corn is an emerging bull market as global supplies decline 34-38 MMT’s in 2026 combined with Black Sea corn exports being curtailed by the new “grain” war against vessels and port infrastructure. Buy corrections.
Fundamental “Heat Is On” In All Phases. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/21/2026
We kickoff the day with ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The USDA’s updated monthly food expenditure data showed food service demand remained resilient through May. Food-away-from-home sales totaled $116.8 Bil, compared with $96.4 Bil for food at home, giving restaurants and other foodservice outlets at a 54.8% share of total food spending. That was the highest share of total food spending. That was the highest share since June 2025 and confirms that consumers continue to allocate the majority of food dollars to meals purchased away from home. The more important change from last month is that inflation-adjusted demand improved. Real total food sales were up 0.8% from a year ago in May, with real food-at-home spending up 1.2% and real food-away-from home spending up 0.5%.. Normal sales were up roughly 4% across both categories. The data suggests consumers are absorbing high foodservice prices, though real growth is modest.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
US Forecast Warmer Two Weeks; Widespread Soil Moisture Ahead:
The mild Central US temps will be established this week, but relief from the abnormal heat will be short-lived. Warmth regenerates this weekend and is forecast to blanket the US Ag Belt into August 5th. Extreme heat will be confined to the Southern Plains , but highs in the upper 80’s & low 90’s will be common elsewhere after July 25th. Regional showers favor NE, MO, IA, and western IL Tues-Fri. Complete dryness is forecast this week. 6-10 day guidance is dry in all areas. NOAA’s bias corrected projected change in soil moisture, and speedy moisture draws are forecast in all but parts of W Plains and Carolinas. The need for regular rain becomes urgent after the opening days of August, but Ag Resources (ARC) fears a pattern of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temps stay in place into the later part of summer. Yield potential is being trimmed. The US weather pattern lacks momentum.
Corn Comments & Analysis
EU Market Scores New Three-Year High Amid Unending Drought; CBOT Values Follow on Potential Massive Imports:
CBOT corn futures pushed to new rally highs with December reaching $4.76, the best price level since early June. EU corn futures pushed to gains of $0.275/Buat a price of $7.43/Bu amid the unrelenting Western European drought. Managed money continues to push new funds into corn futures amid tightening world supplies/stocks with a super El Nino forming in the equatorial Pacific. Yet, CBOT futures ended a it off session highs as shower chances exist across NE, MO, and parts of the eastern Midwest. ARC’s work maintains weather/yield potential isn’t as strong as last year and certainly not strong as last year and certainly not strong enough to offset lower US acres and overall demand growth. The US crop this week is rated at 67% GD/EX, vs. 68% last week and vs. 74%on July 20, 2026. Deterioration occurred where temps were hottest last wee (SD, ND, MN). Modest improvement was recorded east of the Mississippi River with US ratings at the 5-year average. Regional areas of rain will be witnessed this week, with other areas completely missing the moisture. Heat & dryness will persist across W Europe. EU 2026 corn crop estimates rest at 48 MMT’s or below vs. 57 in 2025. This raises Europe’s need for imported corn to a record 26-29 MMT’s. Corn is an emerging bull market as global supplies decline 34-38 MMT’s in 2026 combined with Black Sea corn exports being curtailed by the new “grain” war against vessels and port infrastructure. Buy corrections.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374